The results of Russia’s tightly controlled parliamentary elections have never been in serious doubt. It was a major victory for President Vladimir Putin and the ruling United Russia party, which enthusiastically supports Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The fact that real political opposition to the Kremlin and its costly war has been effectively silenced in recent years has made the outcome of the vote, the first parliamentary elections since 2021, before the Ukraine war began, even more inevitable. Yabloko, the only remaining opposition party seeking an end to the war, was prohibited from participating.
Even before the vote, Putin told Russians that the election was a show of national unity and that “millions of people support our fighters.” This is a sign of President Putin’s confidence in the outcome.
The national election is also being used to emphasize Russia’s readiness to vote during wartime, unlike in Ukraine, and could curry favor with US President Donald Trump, who has criticized Kiev’s constitutional ban on elections under martial law.
But what is always less certain than the outcome of this Russian vote, and potentially more important, is how the new political support will be used and what course of action the Kremlin will pursue next.
Simply holding a nationwide vote in Russia’s 11 time zones and Russian-occupied annexed regions of Ukraine is seen in Russia as a sign of normalization, important to the Kremlin as it grapples with an escalating war.
The reality of what Russia calls a special military operation in Ukraine is increasingly being felt amid soaring casualties on the front, growing economic hardship and growing public anxiety.
But in the wake of Ukraine’s persistent drone attacks, including the largest wave ever launched into the Moscow region where voting took place this weekend, the Kremlin is at pains to reassure Russians that life continues largely unaffected.
But that sense of security may be difficult to maintain as pressure mounts on Russia’s war machine and the Kremlin vows to advance its military goals in Ukraine at all costs.
One of the most serious concerns as the Kremlin pushes to break the front-line stalemate is that it will use the claims of a new mission to launch a new forced mobilization of Russia’s depleted military forces.
A chaotic partial mobilization in September 2022 called up around 300,000 people, sparking widespread anger and a panic-stricken exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russians through stalled border crossings, desperate to escape conscription.
Since then, the Kremlin has tightened border controls, making escape difficult. But President Putin himself has also flatly denied the existence of any plan, slamming speculation as “utter nonsense” and an “information attack on Russia” and dismissing blatant fears of a recurrence as fear-mongering.
Given these personal claims, the election of 49 Ukrainian war veterans is likely to be used as evidence that Russia rewards its soldiers with great political jobs as a means of encouraging voluntary conscription.
Still, some cautious Russians of military age, fearing a U-turn, are leaving the country just in case, mindful that the immediate need for recruits may ultimately outweigh the Kremlin’s urge to avoid public ire.
Concerns are also growing over other future steps by the Kremlin, which feels the overwhelming results of the parliamentary elections have given it new authority to act, from a new military buildup in Ukraine to further tightening of domestic socio-economic control.
