An early fall nor’easter is intensifying on the central East Coast, bringing heavy waves to the coast of several states and threatening to bring coastal flooding and wind and rain to parts of the Northeast into the weekend.
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The nor’easter, named for the direction in which the harsh winds blow, is currently located hundreds of miles off the Mid-Atlantic coast and is expected to intensify over the next two days as it begins to track north.
But exactly how close it will be along the coast remains unclear, and even small changes in its path could make a big difference in how much punch the storm packs when it arrives in the Northeast late Friday or early Saturday.
Coastal flooding and strong winds are already underway from North Carolina and Virginia to New Jersey, the beginning of a multi-day threat of coastal flooding and erosion that will spread into New England as the storm intensifies. The coincidence of Saturday’s full moon has caused high tides to rise day by day, exacerbating the problem.
Here’s what to expect as the nor’easter develops.
New England bears the brunt.
Forecast models went back and forth for days, but recently settled on placing New England and Long Island, New York, in the zone for the heaviest rain and winds this weekend.
Strong wind gusts, major coastal flooding, and heavy rain are possible in these areas, but the exact location of the storm could change the situation.
Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, are some of the cities that will see more rain and windy conditions Friday night into Saturday morning.
New York City appears to be on the western edge of the storm, away from the most intense conditions but close enough to see some showers and wind by Saturday night. If the storm’s path moves closer to the Big Apple, it could cause even more damage.
The strongest winds are likely to be felt along the coasts of New England and Long Island, with gusts of more than 40 mph possible. A high wind watch is in effect for coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with wind gusts potentially reaching 80 mph.
The winds will also make the seas quite rough, which could lead to coastal erosion and coastal flooding at high tide from Friday into Saturday.
The rain could also cause flooding on roads in southeastern New England. Two to four inches of rain could fall in parts of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island this weekend, with up to five inches possible in the hardest-hit areas.
The storm could impact parts of the Northeast into Sunday or Monday. The peak strength is likely to have passed by then, but coastal flooding, rainfall and windy conditions could still persist.
Two other factors will cause coastal flooding in the mid-Atlantic through this weekend, regardless of what happens in the Northeast.
The first is an area of strong high pressure over eastern Canada that is sending fresh, cold air to the northeast. As a result, high temperatures in the region are expected to reach only the 60s through the weekend.
That high pressure system and rapidly developing northeast winds are compressing the air between them, increasing wind speeds along the east coast.
The second factor is the full moon. The tides rise each day and reach their monthly peak around the full moon on Saturday. Higher water levels and stronger winds are exactly the combination needed for severe coastal flooding.
Coastal areas in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey experienced some flooding Wednesday, with several locations in southeastern Virginia reaching major flood stage. Additional games are scheduled there through Friday or Saturday.
Many locations will experience at least moderate saltwater inundation, and some locations may experience major flooding. Significant coastal erosion is also likely due to flooding and daily strong waves.
Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey could also see light to moderate rain, depending on how far east the storm moves.
