It’s the first time in more than 30 years that the Atlantic Ocean hasn’t had a hurricane in September, the latest feat for a Super El Niño that is widely expected to be the strongest on record.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, there have only been three other Septembers without a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, dating back to 1950. The last hurricane occurred in 1994, followed by 1972 and 1962.
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The Atlantic Ocean is not completely shut down, as three tropical cyclones formed last month. Of these, Tropical Storm Fay was closest to hurricane strength. Although winds were less than 4 miles per hour, Fay could be upgraded during the National Hurricane Center’s final review.
The numbers were grim. The average number of hurricanes in a season is seven, and we’ve probably seen five of them by now. Last year was below average with five hurricanes, but by the beginning of October there had already been four, three of which occurred in September.
September is usually peak hurricane season. This is because the warm water that causes the storm is the most widespread and hottest. Also because the atmospheric factors are ripe. On average, there are about 2 to 3 hurricanes per month.
This El Niño-plagued season had already surpassed the most reliable record for the longest wait for a first hurricane, but the absence of a hurricane into October sets up an even rarer possibility: an entire Atlantic season without a hurricane.
Water temperatures remain warm enough for Atlantic hurricanes, but El Niño-fueled wind shear, also known as tropical kryptonite, is the biggest reason for the season’s halt.
Wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere and can tear apart anything from a budding tropical system to a full-blown hurricane.
Since this summer, parts of the Atlantic’s so-called prime development region, which stretches from Africa to the Caribbean, have been experiencing record-breaking shear, Klotzbach said. As the name suggests, this is where most storms occur during the peak of the season, from mid-August to early October, but it’s been mostly shut down this year.
So far, only Tropical Storms Dolly and Gonzalo have formed in the region, and a wall of wind shear tore them both apart. Dolly lasted a day. Gonzalo almost reached a two-point lead.
Meanwhile, El Niño’s very warm waters make for a very active hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific. A total of 20 named storms occurred in these ocean basins, including three Category 5 hurricanes.
Hurricane Polo rapidly strengthened to Category 5 status off the coast of Mexico last week with winds of 180 miles per hour, tying it as the third-strongest East Pacific hurricane on record.
And Hawaii is enduring hurricane fatigue after Lala, Lowell and Noro battered the archipelago with heavy rain and high winds.
There were only two years without an Atlantic hurricane: 1914 and 1907. However, both hurricanes come with an asterisk. This was before satellites and aircraft started tracking hurricanes more accurately, so one or the other could have been missed.
More modern records show that since 1950 there has not been a single season in the Atlantic Ocean without a hurricane. The least frequent seasons were the 1982 and 2013 seasons, when there were just two.
There are still two months left, but October averages about one hurricane each year. In some cases, we may even spin it up in November. But the further the month goes on, the more likely it is that the season will end without a single game played.
Late-season storms tend to form in areas closer to the United States, such as the Gulf, Caribbean, and off the south-south coasts, and are more likely to impact land. The Caribbean Sea has been completely submerged due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, so it is likely that it will continue to be excluded as a potential development area.
But as this year has shown, not all hurricane-strength systems cause significant impacts, especially in a warming world where tropical systems are becoming wetter.
Although Tropical Storms Arthur and Edouard did not last long, heavy rain from both caused massive flash flooding near the Gulf Coast and resulted in water rescues.
