A tropical storm or storm is likely to form in the Gulf this week, reinvigorating the end of the Atlantic hurricane season crushed by El Niño.
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The Gulf Coast is often a hotbed for late-season storms. Areas of severe weather in the Bay of Campeche on the Gulf Coast are now likely to recover by the end of this week, the National Hurricane Center said.
The name of the next storm in the Atlantic is Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs).
Where the storm will reach or how strong it will be remains up in the air.
Gulf waters are record warm for this time of year and are ideal for generating and strengthening any system. However, the overall strength of this potential storm could be limited by less favorable conditions in the atmosphere.
Regardless of its ultimate fate, heavy rain is expected to hit the Gulf Coast and other parts of the South by later this week.
Scenario 1: A tropical depression or storm forms and moves north, but then weakens or even breaks up before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast. The only significant threat to this outcome would be heavy rain.
Scenario 2: A tropical system does not form, but atmospheric moisture still causes heavy rainfall in the central Gulf Coast and neighboring states to the east.
Scenario 3: Tropical Storm Isaias forms, heads north and makes landfall on the Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rain, high winds, and storm surge. Although this scenario would be the most impactful outcome, Isaias is likely to remain below hurricane strength.
The first two scenarios are the most likely, but all three scenarios are possible until the storm actually occurs.
As has already been shown this year, hurricane-strength systems do not cause significant impacts, especially in a warming world where tropical systems are becoming wetter.
Tropical storms Arthur and Edouard did not last long, but heavy rains caused massive flash flooding and water rescues. Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi bore the brunt of Arthur’s flooding, with Edouard dumping more than 20 inches of rain in eastern Texas.
Parts of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Louisiana, and Mississippi are most at risk of heavy rain from this system. Heavy rain could begin to intensify along the coast as early as Friday and continue to soak areas as it spreads further inland into the weekend.
A few inches of rain is possible, but it’s too early to determine where the wettest areas could cause flash flooding.
Typical situation in October and November
Four named storms of tropical storm strength or higher typically occur in October and November, but can end stronger or quieter depending on the hurricane season.
The past few years have shown this year-to-year ebb and flow. Seven storms occurred between October and November in 2024, while only two storms occurred during the same period in 2023.
Late-season storms tend to form in areas closer to the United States, such as the Gulf, Caribbean, and off the south-south coasts, and are more likely to impact land.
There are usually fewer storms, but destructive ones can still occur.
Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica in the last week of October.
Hurricane Michael roared into the Florida Panhandle on October 10, 2018, becoming the most recent Category 5 to make landfall in the United States on record. And Hurricane Sandy may be the most infamous of all hurricanes. In late October 2012, it transformed into a hybrid superstorm and hit the East Coast.
The notorious late-season hurricanes are unlikely to form again this year as Super El Niño continues to batter the Atlantic Basin. For the first time this season, the reliable record shows that the main reason we haven’t seen a hurricane is the winds that drive the storm.
