San Diego is under a tropical storm watch for the second time on record, as Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to make landfall in Mexico’s northern Baja California Peninsula early Sunday, causing coastal flooding, strong winds and inland flash flooding from Southern California to the desert southwest.
A level 3/4 flood risk was issued Saturday night into Sunday for parts of Southern California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and parts of northwestern Arizona, including San Diego and Las Vegas. This means that a number of flash flooding events are expected and could have significant impacts.
This storm could dump more than an inch of rain in San Diego and Las Vegas. That’s about twice the amount of precipitation San Diego typically sees during October, and three times as much in Las Vegas. This increases the likelihood of flash flooding in desert areas that cannot absorb heavy torrential rain quickly.
Peak wind gusts in and around San Diego are expected early Sunday morning, with wind gusts likely to range from 25 to 40 mph in lower elevations and 50 to 70 mph in mountainous areas. The National Weather Service says wind gusts could become stronger if Rachel moves further north, and weaker wind gusts could occur if Rachel moves further south.
The only time San Diego was under a tropical storm watch was during Hurricane Hillary in 2023, the first year such forecast warnings were issued for the area.
According to the NWS forecast office in San Diego, there have been rare tropical weather systems that affected Southern California before 2023, but no such watches or warnings were issued.
Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected Sunday in parts of the desert southwest interior of Arizona, southern Nevada and Utah.
Coastal flooding is a major concern for Rachel, especially in areas already affected by high waves and extreme storm surges in recent months. Coastal flooding is expected along the Southern California coastline as Rachel’s waves move toward the coast, adding to existing high water levels.
This could lead to flooding of roads and damage to coastal properties, especially during high tide on Saturday and Sunday. Morning high tide peaks between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific time, and evening high tide peaks around 10 p.m. Pacific time.
A coastal flood warning is in effect from the Malibu coast and Los Angeles County beaches to coastal San Diego County until Sunday afternoon.
The National Hurricane Center said “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” were likely along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California.
Coastal water levels are already unusually high in California, thanks in part to a record-breaking Super El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, resulting in higher-than-average water levels and coastal flooding along the West Coast. In some areas, houses have already been washed away by the sea. Waves from powerful hurricanes off the coast of the eastern Pacific Ocean are worsening coastal flooding conditions, especially in Southern California.
“Significant coastal flooding is already occurring in some areas, with observed water levels as much as 1.5 feet higher than predicted,” the hurricane center said. The NHC warned that even if Tropical Storm Rachel dissipates in the southwestern states, dangerous coastal conditions are expected to continue into next week.
