Saudi Arabia spends tens of billions of dollars on defense each year, but has struggled to protect critical assets such as airports, refineries and pipelines from missiles and drones fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Despite having state-of-the-art weapons systems from the United States and Europe and a multi-layered air defense system, Saudi Arabia has experienced deadly attacks on its main airport in the capital, Riyadh, over the past week.
Saudi Arabia spent $83 billion on defense last year, firmly ranking among the world’s top 10 military spenders, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In addition to U.S. fighter jets, it has acquired Patriot and THAAD air defense systems, as well as a variety of advanced weapons from France and Britain.
But Saudi Arabia has much to protect. It is a country about one-fifth the size of the United States and is threatened on three sides.
At the height of the conflict this year, Iran launched around 1,000 missiles and drones from the east at targets in Saudi Arabia. From the north, Iraqi militias backed by Iran are sending drones to attack the country’s vital East-West oil pipeline. And from the south, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels are firing missiles at Saudi Arabia from shelters and mobile launchers in Yemen’s mountains.
Protecting Saudi Arabia means protecting a vast network of targets, not just Riyadh or a single refinery. According to Vision2030.ai, an independent website that analyzes Saudi economic transformation, defense installations need to detect incoming threats, decide which ones to intercept, and warn civilians, all in an instant.
Saudi Arabia has intercepted many of the missiles and drones launched by the Houthis. But some people can overcome it. Saudi officials say the Defense Ministry faces difficult choices in distributing existing systems that have many facilities vulnerable to attack.
The Houthis have learned how to overwhelm Saudi defenses using a combination of ballistic and cruise missiles and long-range drones. This approach is similar to Russia’s strategy. Moscow frequently uses large numbers of drones, along with cruise and ballistic missiles, in its barrage against Ukraine.
Cruise missiles fly at low altitudes, making them difficult to identify and track. The Houthis have also introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles that they claim are more maneuverable.
No single air defense system can guarantee to stop all incoming threats.
But the Houthis did not do this alone.
Eight years ago, despite an international arms embargo, UN experts “identified missile debris, associated military equipment, and military unmanned aerial vehicles originating from Iran and brought into Yemen.”
“The scale, nature and extent of the diverse military material and technology transfers provided to the Houthis from external sources, including financial assistance and training of combatants, is unprecedented,” the commission said two years ago.
Experts say the latest Houthi missiles, such as the Hatem-2 and Palestine-2, are very similar in design to Iranian weapons. They are fast and accurate.
Last year, a Houthi missile bypassed Israel’s proud air defenses and landed near Ben Gurion Airport. Analyst Amir Bar Shalom told CNN at the time: “They were very accurate. When you fire from 2,000 kilometers, it’s amazing how accurate they are.”
The Houthis have also modified Iranian air defenses to attack aircraft and cruise missiles, said Brigadier General Majid al-Najri, a Yemeni military spokesman.
“These missiles move around for up to 25 minutes each and operate using a thermal tracking system,” he said last month.
The Houthis have long been part of Iran’s “axis of resistance.” The Houthis are gaining strength while other allied groups, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi militias, have declined significantly.
They maintain strong ties with Iran and sent a delegation to former supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral. But they also have their own purpose.
The seven-year conflict with Saudi Arabia, from 2015 to 2022, caused untold suffering in Yemen’s Houthi-controlled areas, and an economic and transport embargo has been in place ever since.
Eventually, that led to the Houthis, who declared in July that they would attack Saudi ships in the Red Sea. Missile attacks began shortly thereafter, initially targeting Aramco refineries and Saudi air bases on the Red Sea coast.
The Houthis are demanding an end to Saudi airstrikes supporting Yemeni government forces and billions of dollars in compensation from Saudi Arabia.
In good faith or not, Iran has offered to mediate between Riyadh and the Houthis. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was ready to provide “all necessary support to facilitate the start of talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, namely the Houthis.”
Mohammed al-Bukaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, claimed on Monday that Riyadh had accepted mediation, but that the Houthis had rejected offers for a two-week and one-month ceasefire.
“This fight is different from before and the arena is no longer the same arena,” Al-Bukaiti said. “Every day this battle expands in scope, the losses deepen, and a settlement that is possible today may be difficult or impossible tomorrow.”
Saudi Arabia is trying to project a “business as usual” image even as the conflict with the Houthis intensifies. Civil defense authorities last week stopped issuing public telephone alerts for incoming missiles and drones ahead of a series of deadly attacks on Riyadh’s airport.
According to several people in Riyadh who spoke to CNN, the warning has since been reinstated. Saudi authorities announced on Monday that three ballistic missiles had been intercepted.
An expat living in Riyadh told CNN that his children were being educated at home this week. The resident was upset on Saturday that there had been no automatic warning of the incoming missile the previous day, but by Monday he said telephone alerts were working effectively. They also expressed dissatisfaction with Saudi authorities’ silence over the weekend regarding the Riyadh airport attack.
CNN has asked Saudi authorities for answers about the lack of warnings.
In the future, the kingdom will face tough choices. Staying with the Houthis will be unpleasant after an attack on the airport killed more than a dozen civilians.
An escalation with more intense airstrikes would pose a risk of further missile attacks, undermining Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s goal of making Saudi Arabia a world-class destination for investment, technology and tourism.
The stakes extend beyond the oil industry. Data centres, desalination plants and airports support the kingdom’s technology ambitions, water supply and tourism economy. The crown prince’s major investment event in Riyadh later this month will focus attention on his pitch to international investors.
But major companies have refrained from attending this week’s World Petroleum Conference in Riyadh.
It seems highly unlikely that a ground offensive involving Yemeni government forces would defeat the Houthi rebels. The Houthis are trench-trenched, battle-hardened and well-versed in mountainous terrain. They inflicted heavy losses on government forces last month.
Last year, the United States spent more than $1 billion on a seven-week air campaign against the Houthis. The Houthis ultimately agreed not to attack US shipping in the Red Sea, but remained in place, during which they shot down numerous highly advanced US Reaper drones.
Neither the US nor the Israeli attacks eliminated members of the Houthi leadership, even if commanders and technocrats were killed.
Rather, the Houthis, who number 350,000 troops, are leading the charge. The Institute for the Study of War said on Monday that they had laid siege to the government-controlled city of Taiz, Yemen’s third largest and most important logistics hub.
Saudi Arabia is seeking to rally an international coalition against the Houthis. Regional allies are providing support in terms of defense systems. Pakistan has sent thousands of troops to help defend the kingdom. Egypt has provided whatever assistance is requested.
Saudi Arabia may also be able to procure more air defense systems from Europe and the United States, after exhausting those delivered at the start of the conflict with Iran.
However, the United States itself lacks such a system. The U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General’s report said operations against Iran “created strategic inventory shortages and exposed industrial base bottlenecks in munitions supply.”
With the midterm elections just three weeks away, US President Donald Trump is wary of new turmoil in the Middle East. He denies direct U.S. attacks on the Houthis, but does not rule them out.
“America’s reluctance to engage fuels the perception that the United States has abandoned its partners when it needs them most,” said Michael Ratney of the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Before the airport strike, Ratney, a former US ambassador in Riyadh, added: “Saudi Arabia is under attack and must retaliate as a political matter. But ultimately, we should expect a return to diplomacy, an incomplete and unsatisfactory diplomacy that nevertheless intensifies the conflict.”
That could leave the Houthis in place and put them in a stronger position inside Yemen.
CNN’s Nick Robertson contributed to this article.
