Parts of North Carolina into the Chesapeake Bay region will face a near-constant threat of high winds, high waves and coastal flooding this weekend as a nor’easter expected to last into next week begins in earnest.
This budding storm will not follow in the footsteps of last month’s nor’easter or reach the same strength. Still, it won’t be a pleasant few days for areas affected by the new storm.
Here’s what you can expect:
wind and rain
Wind will be the most pervasive and long-term threat. Winds will begin to pick up late Saturday afternoon after a strong cold front cuts through the mid-Atlantic coast and eastern North Carolina, bringing significant cooling and rain.
As the front moves through the Chesapeake Bay and interior eastern North Carolina, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely. Stronger wind gusts reaching 80 mph are possible on North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
Winds will worsen Sunday as an area of low pressure that becomes a coastal storm begins to develop off the coast of North Carolina. Wind gusts of up to 60 mph are possible in parts of the Outer Banks by Sunday afternoon, and gusts could reach 80 mph in parts of the state’s interior and along the coasts of Virginia and Maryland.
These winds can bring down trees and power lines, causing power outages.
This increase in wind speed is due to the interaction of the developing storm with an area of high pressure over southeastern Canada. The two compress the air between them, sending fast winds toward the coast.
The stronger the storm, the higher the wind speed. This new storm is not expected to be super strong, but its proximity to the coast increases the wind threat.
It is likely to fully form in the Northeast by Monday afternoon, when wind speeds will begin to peak along the coast and rain will begin to fall in the region. Flash flooding is not a serious threat, but wind-driven rain makes it uncomfortable to be outside.
Wind gusts over 90 mph are possible in parts of the Outer Banks, with 40-50 mph gusts creeping toward I-95 in North Carolina and southern Virginia. Further north along the coast, wind gusts of up to 30 mph are possible in parts of the Delaware and New Jersey coasts, although the storm remains near the Carolinas.
Similarly, strong winds are possible in North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday, which could weaken slightly by Wednesday. The forecast for the second half of next week is even more uncertain and will depend largely on how long the coastal storm will meander around the Carolinas.
In any case, light to strong winds along the coast are likely to continue into next weekend.
This is another long-term threat from the storm. Minor coastal flooding could begin as early as high tide Sunday morning, from parts of the Outer Banks to the Chesapeake Bay, as strong winds push more water onto the coast.
Water levels will rise further by Sunday afternoon’s high tide, at which point moderate coastal flooding is possible in some areas, particularly near the Virginia-North Carolina border.
Further moderate flooding is possible during Monday’s high tide, and a similar rhythm will continue to cause problems until at least midweek. Depending on how close the storm approaches the coast, major flooding could occur in some locations.
Alongside the threat of coastal flooding, rough seas and larger waves are likely to hit the coast later this weekend and into next week.
If this relentless wave action continues for days, it could worsen ongoing coastal erosion, especially in parts of the Outer Banks where homes have collapsed into the sea and roads have been washed away in recent years.
Once the coastal storm forms off the coast of the Carolinas, it is expected to linger for several days and possibly up to a week.
This storm is not a tropical system at the time of its occurrence. Tropical storms are caused by warm water, but this storm starts along the same cold front that heralds a cooldown this weekend.
But the longer it stays above the warm waters just off the coast, the more likely it becomes a hybrid system that supplies both ocean heat and atmospheric energy.
The storm is unlikely to become tropical, but it’s not impossible late next week. Even if that were to happen, the impact would not be much different. The National Hurricane Center just has to watch.
