A storm heading toward the central United States on Election Day could impact turnout in key elections across the region.
The storm will start just off the West Coast and enter the United States on Saturday night. Abundant moisture flowing in from the tropical Pacific Ocean will pose a serious flooding threat for the Southwest this weekend before bringing damp weather to central states on Election Day.
Heavy rain is expected to fall in the Four Corners states of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado from Sunday into Monday, potentially causing severe flash flooding before heavy rain moves into the central United States by Election Day.
Wet weather is expected Tuesday across a wide area from the Great Plains and upper Midwest to the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast. Severe weather is expected for key races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas.
The threat of heavy rain on Tuesday is currently low, but voters heading to polling places could encounter ponds on the roads.
Thunderstorms are expected to the south of the storm, with the potential for thunderstorms to intensify and bring heavy rain from eastern Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.
Also, severe storms are likely to occur in most of the affected states, especially in the plains areas. Wind gusts could reach 30 to 40 mph in Kansas and up to 50 mph in Nebraska.
Weather conditions could affect turnout in those states and other states in the central United States that are not among the more than 49 million people who have already voted in early voting.
Studies have found that while rain and other active weather conditions tend to suppress turnout, sunshine has the opposite effect.
Dry weather could be interspersed with storms across much of the East Coast and the West. The only exception is coastal areas of southeastern and northern California, which have not yet completely eliminated nuisance showers.
But nationally, people will no longer need to dress up to vote. High temperatures are expected to be 5 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average for most of the eastern half of the country. Only parts of the Southwest will experience slightly cooler than average temperatures.
The breakdown below shows predictions for some key states in the midterm elections. Please note that these forecasts are subject to change as confidence increases in the path of this weekend’s storms.
Georgia: Dry conditions with highs probably in the 70s and 80s.
Iowa: Rain is possible, with the heaviest rain falling in the eastern part of the state Monday evening through midday Tuesday. High temperatures will reach the 60s, but it could be even cooler in the northwest corner.
Kansas: The central and eastern parts of the state will see the highest chance of wind and rain. High temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s with widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.
Maine: Scattered showers are possible across the interior of the state, but the timing is still to be determined. Highs will reach the 50s and 60s.
Michigan: It will be rainy across the state for at least part of the day, with the potential for extended periods of rain further north. High temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s in the Upper Peninsula and low 70s in Lower Michigan.
New Hampshire: A shower or two is possible in the northern part of the state, but more rain is unlikely at this time. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.
North Carolina: May be dry with highs in the 70s.
Ohio: Mostly dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Texas: Rain is possible in East Texas and along the coast. A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are also possible. High temperatures will range from the 80s near the coast to the 60s in the state’s Panhandle and West Texas.
