US President Donald Trump has offered his clearest hint yet that increased diplomacy could avoid another major battle with Iran after his party’s disastrous midterm election results.
President Trump told CNN on Sunday that if Iran makes progress toward agreeing to its nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a new military attack by the U.S. military is “very unlikely.” He also told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that he was “not considering” escalating the war.
President Trump went further Monday after speaking with the Qatari prime minister, saying he doesn’t believe additional military action against Iran is necessary at this time. President Trump suddenly appeared in the White House briefing room and said, “There is no need to take military action at this time.”
But President Trump has made clear that military options remain available if circumstances change. “Even if there are any changes regarding developments in the Middle East, the United States is completely locked down and burdened,” he said. “We see no reason to use it,” he added.
Iran and the United States continue to quietly negotiate a delicate deal that could avoid a return to full-scale war and open the door to broader talks.
But hopes for a deal have been tempered by the US, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying on Sunday: “I can’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough.”
Qatar, which is mediating with both countries, has revealed little about the talks, even as diplomatic activity has accelerated since Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The Republican defeat in the election added another dimension to the negotiations. Vice President J.D. Vance later said that the war was one of the reasons Republicans lost both houses of Congress.
President Trump told “60 Minutes” that he disagreed with Vance’s assessment, acknowledging that voters “didn’t like war.” But he strongly defended the decision to attack Iran, saying if he had to make it again, the answer would be a “resolute yes.”
J.D. Vance blames Iran war for Republican defeat in midterm elections
Meanwhile, Iran is trying to use the election results to assert its negotiating position. “American voters have made their choice. It’s time for the White House to make its choice,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday.
President Trump continues to express confidence in the U.S. military position, but Iran has repeatedly threatened to expand the war geographically if attacked again.
Both sides have some important demands that the other is reluctant to make on paper.
President Trump aims to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, which the Iranian government views as an issue of national sovereignty.
Iran has publicly insisted that it will not negotiate with Washington over the plan or reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz unless seven preconditions are met, including an end to the war on “all fronts” and the lifting of the naval blockade. Details have not yet been made public.
Hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium, the fissile material needed to make a nuclear bomb if further enriched to weapons-grade levels, remains hidden somewhere in Iran. The Iranian government has used this stockpile as leverage in negotiations with the United States. According to reports, Washington wants to either dilute the uranium or transfer it to another country for storage. It is unclear how far the two countries have progressed in this regard.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for energy generation and not for military purposes.
Apart from its nuclear program and not making concessions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has important economic goals.
Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers, is finding it increasingly difficult to sell its crude on global markets under US sanctions. Billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in foreign banks also remain frozen. The US government appears to be considering easing these restrictions, which could help the Iranian government ease the severe economic burden on its population amid record inflation.
Iran is also seeking compensation from the United States for the airstrike that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and other military leaders in late February at the start of the U.S.-Israel war.
Qatar is acting as a mediator between the two countries, circulating a framework document that both Washington and Iran are working to amend. The process has been underway for weeks, and in some cases months, but has intensified in recent days due to fears of a new strike.
President Trump met with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Washington on Monday. President Trump then expressed optimism that the conflict would end soon, saying Qatar and other Arab states neighboring the Persian Gulf wanted to “maintain the status quo.”
“We’re seeing momentum towards ending this conflict, and I think it’s going to end fairly soon,” President Trump said.
So far, neither side is willing to grant that request.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested on Sunday, before departing for the Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers meeting in Paris, that the two countries were still far from reaching an agreement.
“At the moment, Iran’s demands are not only unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous, ridiculous, and in fact not realistic, and therefore not very productive.”
After a series of open clashes, the Iranian government’s trust in Washington has all but disappeared. Iran has not forgotten that the conflict began while nuclear negotiations with the United States were underway.
Iran fears that relinquishing any influence could invite renewed attacks from the United States and Israel, exposing itself to threats and leaving it without an effective means of negotiation. An attack on Iran after it opens the Strait of Hormuz and relinquishes control of its enriched uranium would leave it further exposed and in a weak negotiating position.
President Trump is balancing relations with Arab countries and Israel, both of which see the Islamic Republic as a threat and would face intense scrutiny if he withdraws from the war without significant concessions from Iran. The Iranian government also wants to protect its regional proxies and allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. These militias fight on behalf of the Islamic Republic locally and have pledged allegiance to Tehran, but have been under existential pressure for the past three years.
In September, Iran’s allies in Yemen, the Houthi rebels, launched a surprise offensive and captured the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another key maritime chokepoint in the Red Sea, giving Iran potential influence over additional waterways. The Houthis have since stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia in response to Riyadh’s military support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
The United States wants to deny Iran the ability to produce nuclear weapons, including advanced equipment that would allow it to do so.
Iran’s Arab neighbors are divided over the deal, which gives Iran too much power and solidifies its desired hegemony. Iran wants to control the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime corridor through which wealthy Arab countries export most of their oil and gas. Control of the waterway would give Tehran decisive influence over what flows in and out of the region. This, too, would run counter to the demands of the United States, which wants the waterway open and is unwilling to hand over important gains from the war to Iran.
There have been some attacks, but both sides have ignored them, perhaps a sign neither side wants to derail negotiations.
Some media outlets are reporting that negotiations between the two countries are close to reaching an agreement. The New York Times has indicated that Iran intends to rejoin nuclear negotiations.
Although there has been no independent confirmation, any concessions by Iran on its nuclear program or even a willingness to discuss the topic would likely be seen as a breakthrough.
However, despite reports of progress, the risk of all-out war remains real. The United States still maintains a huge military presence in the Middle East and could launch a major attack against President Trump’s orders.
Ships carrying oil and gas transiting the Strait of Hormuz continue to be exposed to Iranian attack.
The United States is offering a reward of up to $20 million for information about Iran’s nuclear program and has created a task force aimed at preventing Tehran from using land routes to transport advanced weapons and other supplies. This is a sign that the US government is increasing pressure rather than easing it.
US offers $20 million reward for information on Iran’s nuclear program
Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners, who believe Iran has already won the war with the United States, are capitalizing on Trump’s medium-term losses and demanding an even higher price for exiting the conflict. If reform-minded Iranian leaders participating in the talks reach an agreement, it could face opposition at home.
Over the past few weeks, Iranian military commanders have stepped up their warnings, claiming that Iran has weapons capable of hitting more targets and causing more damage than before.
So even if President Trump is open to reaching a deal, it is far from clear that Iran is ready to accept it.
