a Iranian port blockade The measures, which President Donald Trump said began Monday, could further disrupt oil prices, raising questions about international law and leaving questions about whether the pressure tactic will force Iran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump threatened to impose a blockade after talks to foster a fragile ceasefire ended without an agreement over the weekend. Iran had previously suspended nearly all tanker traffic through its main waterway, allowing only some vessels deemed friendly to pass. charge a considerable fee.
Experts say enforcing the blockade would likely require significant resources from the U.S. Navy and could raise military force and international law concerns. Meanwhile, supply chain analysts have stressed that the restrictions could disrupt the flow of oil, fertilizer, food and other goods to consumers who are already facing soaring prices.
How can the US enforce a blockade of Iranian ports?
Experts say a successful blockade will require continued involvement of U.S. Navy ships and personnel, as well as clear guidance from the Trump administration and the Navy’s legal office.
U.S. military officials have provided few details. US is 16 middle east warshipssaid a defense official. Another defense official said there were no warships in the Persian Gulf, a body of water that forms much of Iran’s coastline. Both men spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive military operation.
A second official cited the notice to sailors as a more accurate representation of the military’s plans. Access to Iran’s ports is restricted, but it said “the practical application of these measures is being developed.”
The biggest challenge is the huge amount of shipping traffic that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil trade passes during peacetime. Sidharth Kaushal, a naval power expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London, said significant numbers of ships could be needed to enforce the restrictions.
“A lot of it will depend on how many ships the Americans can seize in the early stages of the blockade and how well they can convince ships trying to slip through the cordon that they are likely to be captured,” Kaushal said. “But it will probably be difficult for the U.S. to enforce it.”
Todd Huntley, director of the national security law program at Georgetown University Law Center, said the narrow confines of the strait would at least limit the geographic area of concern. Still, the amount of traffic passing through “is going to be a challenge,” he says.
Huntley said the United States may need to consider whether to allow humanitarian aid to arrive at Iranian ports, and that decision could determine the legality of the blockade under international law. International rules also require countries implementing blockades to enforce the blockade impartially after advising seafarers.
“Whether or not it’s legal depends on how it’s done,” said Huntley, a retired Navy captain and judge advocate general. “We cannot enact a blockade aimed at starving civilians. The Pentagon’s Laws of War manual also states that neutral ships carrying relief supplies should be allowed through.”
Raul Pedroso, a professor of international law at the Naval War College and a retired Navy captain and JAG officer, said few commercial ships would try to evade the blockade. They won’t want to take any chances against the U.S. Navy, he says.
“They see a warship and they’re going to head there,” Pedroso said.
Naval blockades are not a solution, but they can be a tool.
Experts say blockades have historically not been enough on their own and have been used to put pressure on other countries and their economies during conflicts.
“There are always ways to save, import, substitute or just give up on certain things that cannot be built due to lack of foreign supplies,” Kaushal said. “It can make things much more difficult in many ways, but it doesn’t necessarily achieve a definitive result.”
A blockade alone cannot sever Iran’s economic ties with its trading partners, including China and Russia, nor cut off its access to the Caspian Sea or Central Asia.
Farzin Nadhimi, an expert on Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the blockade also risks a reaction from Iran that could reignite the conflict.
Iran could respond by deploying naval mines, small fast attack craft, and missiles against ships, further disrupting the global economy.
“The United States wants this to be a short-lived, heavy-handed operation. I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Nadimi said.
President Trump says Iran has several “fast attack ships” left. warned Tehran said anything approaching the US blockade “anywhere” would be destroyed in a “swift and brutal” attack. Iran responded with its own threats at ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Oil prices may continue to rise
Experts say most ships will not want to take the risk due to the threat of attack. Waterways could remain effectively closed, and prices, especially for oil and gasoline, could rise further.
“The problem with a two-sided blockade is that we know it’s going to take quite a while to open the strait and get some kind of agreement, and that’s going to push prices even higher,” said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University whose research focuses on supply chains.
Analysts have warned that the longer the waterway remains closed, the worse prices could become. Oil prices rose in response to the market’s quick reaction to Trump and others’ announcements about the course of the war, but overall they are still rising sharply, and oil prices are Trading above $100 per barrel on Mondayup from about $70 before the war.
Households and businesses are paying the price, especially in Asia. depend more strongly Regarding fuel imports from the Middle East. But oil is a globally traded commodity, and consumers around the world are feeling the pinch in their wallets.
For example, American motorists have seen gasoline prices soar from prewar prices of $2.98 to an average of more than $4.12 per gallon.
Further disruption to global supply chains is possible.
Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, said the lockdown would also negatively impact the transportation of food and fertilizer. He said countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain could see “dramatic food price increases” in particular because of the need to transport goods by air.
some 30% of world fertilizer It can enter through straits and harm farmers, worsening hunger around the world.
“Now you’re talking about impacting the world’s harvest,” Penfield said. Between these turmoil and the oil crisis, he noted, such turmoil and uncertainty is “spread across the world.”
Mani said basic supplies such as paint and chemicals for making metals such as aluminum also pass through the area, which will cause further disruption. He pointed to price pressures even before the U.S. and Israel began their war against Iran, including new tariffs from President Trump, supply chain issues due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and other geopolitical conflicts.
“Regardless of how this lockdown turns out, we have to prepare for a permanent increase in prices,” she said. “Each crisis feeds into the next.”
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Associated Press writers Konstantin Tropin in Washington and Mae Anderson in New York contributed to this report.
