BEIJING (AP) — chinese An official survey released on Sunday showed factory activity was flat in May, raising questions about the extent to which the country’s economy can insulate itself from the impact. fall out Pressure on the ongoing Iran war and demands.
Official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index eases to 50 From April 50.3according to the Office for National Statistics. Measured on a scale of 0 to 100, a PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The new orders sub-index fell to 49.9 from 50.6 in April, and the production sub-index fell slightly to 51.2 from 51.5 in April. The raw material inventory sub-index was 48.6, down from 49.3 in April.
Until now, China little impact It is more vulnerable than many other countries facing a global energy shock from the Iran war. inflation pressure This is similar to how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil is transported during peacetime, caused oil prices to soar.
Analysts say China has large oil reserves; diverse energy sources It helped the world’s second-largest economy survive the war largely unscathed.
“The energy crisis remains the dominant headwind for Asia, but China is relatively better protected given its strong energy security regime,” Frederick Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Bank, said in a research note last week.
Meanwhile, HSBC said exports remain important to China’s overall economy.
While China’s exports to the United States have declined year over year for most months of the past year, global exports have It was sturdyespecially to Europe and Southeast Asia.
Expectations for a recovery in exports to the United States have increased in response to President Donald Trump’s policies. summit After meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing in mid-May and agreeing on the establishment of the Independent trade and investment committees.
cars and technology, Artificial intelligence related While exports are driving export growth, some economists also point to concerns about the economy as a whole. Domestic demand continues to be sluggish This comes after years of downturn in the real estate sector weighed on consumer confidence and investment.
“Domestic demand is lagging, but luxury manufacturing and exports are holding back,” Robin Xin, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note last week.
Chinese leaders set annual economic indicators Growth target is 4.5% to 5% For this year. That’s it Lowest target since 1991Although slightly lower than The goal is “about 5%” It is set in 2025.
Morgan Stanley said China remains likely to meet its 2026 target, but easing uncertainty around oil prices and global oil supplies will be key factors in determining how things go.
