FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — tentative agreement to end war in iran And the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be good news for the global economy. However, even if crude oil prices have fallen Many questions remained Monday about when and how the water would start flowing again. The most important artery in the world For energy transport.
Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s crude oil was transported through this strait. It will take time for the hundreds of ships currently trapped in the Persian Gulf to escape through the narrow strait. And Gulf oil producers, who have curtailed production, will take time to get oil running again. Analysts also said the ship’s captain may need time to determine whether it is safe to sail or whether there is a threat of attack. from iran It really took a step back.
After all, the oil price inflation And the flow of energy does not return to its pre-war state immediately, not even weeks or even months. And that assumes the contract expected to be signed Friday proves permanent. Details were not made public.
When will oil start moving again?
Even if the strait were fully open, it would take time for tankers to enter, load and head to Asian countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman, which are major customers for Gulf oil. A round trip to Japan may take 45-50 days.
Given the volatile situation, captains, insurance companies and owners may take longer to attempt passage.
“Operationally, the industry is in no hurry to return,” Richard Mead, editor-in-chief of shipping data and analysis firm Lloyd’s List, wrote, noting that many have warned that demining and reopening internationally recognized transit lanes “are a prerequisite for safe navigation.”
Ships are trickling out of Iranian-run inspection lanes on the northern side of the strait, but others are sailing along the southern channel along the Omani coast with their lights and positioning systems turned off under the guidance of the U.S. military. Iran had threatened to attack ships using internationally established mid-Strait transit lanes that allow ships entering and exiting to get out of each other’s way.
There are about 500 commercial ships left in the Persian Gulf, and they cannot all sail through the narrow strait at once, according to maritime and energy information firm Kpler.
Amena Bakr, head of Middle East Energy and OPEC+ Insights at Kpler, estimated it would take six months to clear the mines, two to three months to reload ships on their way out and return, and another three months to restart production to pre-war levels in some countries.
What does “open” strait mean? It is not clear whether the US and Iran have reached an agreement
Iran has demanded the right to collect fees from ships using the strait, and in some cases has already demanded payment to allow ships to leave port. President Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that the deal includes “free access,” but there has been no confirmation from Iran.
Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said the period between the deal’s announcement and signing “gives both sides room to make contradictory statements about the deal, particularly about the extent to which Iran will control transportation and demand fees.”
Paying the toll will be an embarrassment for shipowners because the United States and the European Union have designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, and the U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on organizations that Iran has announced will carry out collection operations. Unless these sanctions are corrected, the payments will expose shippers and banks to sanctions.
Legal experts argue that allowing Iran to control traffic would violate international law on freedom of navigation, as set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which requires states to allow peaceful passage through their territorial waters. The strait’s waters are shared with Iran to the north and Oman to the south.
Oil producers also need time to restart operations
Some Middle Eastern producers have temporarily halted oil extraction from the ground, known as “hikikomori,” as they run out of storage space. Resuming these operations may cause the process to take some time.
Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and petroleum markets at analytics firm Wood Mackenzie, said countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that were able to export some oil through alternative pipelines or routes other than the Strait of Hormuz may be the first to resume production.
“Places like Iraq can be a more difficult situation because there are more extensive shutdowns and the field is more difficult…it could take about a year to get home,” he said.
“Sentiment has clearly improved, but sentiment is not the same as supply,” Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, said in emailed comments.
“It will take time for production to recover, logistics to normalize and the risk premium built into oil prices to dissipate,” he said in emailed comments.
Daniel Starnov, a senior fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said countries will not reopen until they know there are permanently open channels and that the ceasefire will last more than 30 or 60 days.
Economists at Capital Economics expect energy flows to reach 80% of pre-war levels by September.
Inflation won’t go down anytime soon
Even if the deal immediately reopens the Strait, economists say it will not immediately reduce inflation.
“Despite relatively weak growth, inflation is likely to remain above target in most major economies this year and into the first half of next year,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.
Inflation could even rise further if government measures aimed at mitigating the energy shock expire, Bundesbank central bank president Joachim Nagel said in a speech on Monday.
This includes Germany temporarily lowering its fuel tax by 17 euro cents per liter until June 30th.
“It will take several months for oil supplies to return to normal,” Nagel said.
