NEW YORK (AP) — As the United States and Israel relentlessly bomb Iran; day of warthe most dramatic predictions about the cost of conflict. It was merciless: Rising oil prices, global recession, and economic catastrophe.
But six months into the conflict, this dire prediction has not come to fruition, even as no part of the global economy remains untouched.
“So far, the global economy has achieved an economic Mission Impossible situation,” said Michael Ashley Shulman, investment strategist at Cerity Partners.
Let’s take a look at how the global economy has weathered the war and who are the winners and losers.
Winner: Investors who didn’t panic
Stock markets dislike uncertainty and US-Israel decisions Attack Iran on February 28th I delivered a lot of it. Columns of smoke rose from Tehran and the death toll rose as frenzied Iranians clogged roads as they tried to flee. including childrenmade headlines. It was enough to make any investor nervous.
Oil prices soar and Wall Street begins to retreat, beginning a fifth straight week of losses. The Dow and Nasdaq have entered a correction. The S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022.
but a big change has taken place Since the market bottomed out in late March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 19%, the S&P rose nearly 22% and the Nasdaq soared 27%. If these gains survive the decline in 2026, all three indexes will record their fourth straight year of gains.
The International Monetary Fund said in a July report that the economy is “shaped by two major forces moving in opposite directions.” The war put a strain on growth, but enthusiasm for artificial intelligence offset that strain.
Main Street may be paying more for fuel, food and transportation. But Wall Street is ignoring it for now.
Loser: People on the move
The most obvious economic impact of the war was Impact on oil. Tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz It’s horribly lateBrent crude oil prices rose from a prewar closing price of about $72 a barrel to nearly $120 a barrel. Although prices have stabilized, they are still about 20% higher than before the war.
Oil prices affect everything from crayons to cosmetics, but they hit people on the go especially hard.
The cost of jet fuel is expected to rise by an average of 70% compared to 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association. Meanwhile, airlines are increasing ticket prices, baggage fees, and fuel surcharges, while reducing flights and withdrawing from plans to add routes. For example, Lufthansa Group has reduced its short-haul flights by 20,000. spirit airlines, Even though I’ve been worried for yearsevaporated.
“It’s very unlikely that fuel surcharges will come down and airfares will go down in the coming months,” said Brett House, an economist at Columbia University. “With fewer choices for consumers and less competition between airlines, there is less pressure to curb fare increases.”
Winner: The Clean Power Claim
The war has intensified the push for clean power as tankers sit idle and fuel prices soar.
Electric vehicle sales have broken records in some parts of the world. In Singapore, year-on-year growth in EVs reached 110%. In New Zealand, this figure reached 180%. And in Colombia, EV increased by 300%.
According to projections from the International Energy Agency, EVs are expected to account for 29% of global car sales by 2026, up from 25% last year. This growth is even more surprising considering that EV demand is declining in the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China.
Countries that were particularly dependent on Persian Gulf oil are being spurred into action. Leaders are taking action in Southeast Asia Further use of renewable energy I also researched the introduction of nuclear power generation. In Africa, each country is aiming to expand domestic refining and refining. Accelerate installation of solar panels.
Scott Lehmann, a supply chain expert at operational intelligence firm Sfera, counts 26 countries and territories that have announced clean energy and electrification measures in response to war.
“The crisis is forcing investment faster than any policy framework could,” he said.
Loser: The War on Hunger
For the privileged class, the cost of war may be negligible. For the poorest, it is a different story.
The war was a blow to farmers, as the Gulf region was a leader not only in world oil production but also in fertilizer production. Just as many people are making decisions about their crops. Fertilizer prices have soaredAccording to the World Bank’s price index, the April peak was 44% higher than before the war.
In response, some farmers may use less fertilizer, potentially jeopardizing next year’s harvest. “Reducing fertilizer use now is, in a sense, a debt that threatens the health of the soil next year,” said Arif Gasilov, a natural resources expert at consultancy Gasilov Group.
The United Nations World Food Program estimates that tens of millions of people may be driven to starvation. The company’s acting director general, Karl Skau, said in testimony this week that “fertilizer export suffocation” was hitting Asia and Africa hard. Rising transport costs have also disrupted WFP’s own humanitarian efforts.
“An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz could mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” Skau said. “When oil prices go up, so do the prices of flour, rice and vegetables.”
Winner: Trump Family Business
The war has already cost the United States tens of billions of dollars and caused thousands of Iranian casualties. This removed an estimated hundreds of billions of dollars from projected global output.
But its central figure, President Donald Trump’s family, is also benefiting.
Military contractor Powers, about to be exposed by Eric Trump Jr. and Donald Trump Jr. won an air force contract The supply of interceptors to shoot down Iranian drones is worth as much as $90 million. Similarly, the private equity firm 1789 Capital Management, which Don Jr. joined days after his father’s reelection, owns stakes in several other military contractors profiting from the war. One of those companies, Anduril, won U.S. approval for up to $2 billion in sales of drone interceptors to Kuwait. The second is Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which provides satellite services to Iran to guide U.S. drones. And a third rocket maker, Firehawk Defense, has won a contract with the Pentagon for propellant and warheads to replenish America’s dwindling supplies.
1789 Capital spokeswoman Alexa Henning said Don Jr. was not involved in the decision to put money into these companies, so there was no “malicious relationship.”
The president himself did well.
his Investment portfolio management by outside managers He scooped up stocks in U.S. military supply companies that supported the war, including Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman. Democrats this week released a report showing President Trump’s oil and gas stock holdings have increased by as much as $15.5 million.
White House press secretary Anna Kelly said there was “no conflict of interest” and that “President Trump acts only in the best interests of the American people.”
Trump’s personal finances are strong, but his political fortunes are another matter. This conflict is unpopular; As midterm elections approach, this could weigh on voters..
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Associated Press writers Mae Anderson, Kathy Busewitz and Bernard Condon in New York contributed to this report. Paul Wiseman of Washington; Wyatt Grantham Phillips of Chicago; Rio Yamat in Las Vegas. Alexa St. John of Detroit; Alan Olingo of Nairobi, Kenya. Chan Ho-him from Hong Kong. and Anton L. Delgado of Bangkok.
