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As the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran drags on in more devastating days, experts and politicians are scrambling to weave uncertainty into a clear narrative that justifies their long-held views. Israel talks about “changes in the Middle East.” The United States talks about “defending the American people.” Although the outlook for regime change in the Iranian situation remains uncertain, both sides have been repeating “regime change” like a spell.
So far, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has failed to spark a large-scale uprising inside Iran called for by Israel and the United States. Meanwhile, critics have repeatedly said that a change of government cannot happen from the air.
Still, wars exist to be won or lost. So who is winning?
The immediate impulse is to assume a victory for Israel and the United States. After all, both countries appear to have pulled off a big surprise, decimating the Islamic Republic’s leadership from the air and sea. Is there a greater feat than “decapitation”?
Given the European Union’s weak response and Asia’s lack of participation in future events, the impression is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have won. No one seems able to suggest a viable alternative to Israeli-American court reporting.
I would like to suggest a different perspective on the current situation. In short, I suggest that Netanyahu and Trump may have won the first round of the most tactical and immediate hostilities, but even this “win” is questionable. This happened because their extremely short-term interests coincided. But the lifespan of this revived alliance is only as short as the time it takes for each party to leverage its successes to its own advantage.
The first focus of concern is political survival. In Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu needs to distance himself from his leadership qualities and Israel’s string of failures in Gaza and the West Bank. While Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians continues, Israel is also seeing its complete control over Gaza begin to slip from its hands. Efforts to prevent Turkiye and Qatar from playing their roles have so far failed.
In the West Bank, the Israeli state and military are fully engaged in aiding and abetting land theft and ethnic cleansing. The majority of Israelis oppose neither, but their trust in state institutions that pretend to be law-abiding while being thoroughly politicized is constantly declining.
To secure Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political future, he must appear free of these failures. A “victory” against Iran, which many Israelis consider their most important enemy, would re-establish him as the only leader capable of defending Israel.
The prime minister was joined by the Israeli military over the past year, despite long-standing tensions between the government and the military. If Netanyahu is desperate for victory, the military is even more desperate. Its high command is seeking to avoid being named solely responsible for the events of October 7, 2023, and has already requested a significant budget increase. Only a “historic victory” would guarantee military immunity.
In the United States, Trump is not only desperate for victory, but also for distraction. Although his “heroics” in Venezuela have already been forgotten, his “antics” recorded in Epstein’s files resonate more strongly each day.
His use of the term “regime change” is intentionally vague, open to any interpretation, and ready to declare “mission accomplished” whenever necessary.
President Trump also wants to show that he is fully capable of championing a vision of a world order that consists simply of “might makes justice.” The apparent contradiction between his “no foreign war” commitment to his bases and America’s pursuit of exceptionalism and triumphalism is easily resolved when it comes to the eternal bogeyman, the Islamic Republic.
That being said, Trump and Netanyahu don’t trust each other. Both sides have only the most pressing interest in pursuing further cooperation.
Once the distractions wear off, both sides will be left with an uncertain war. President Trump will likely feel pressure to end the operation quickly, while Prime Minister Netanyahu will likely seek an extension.
President Trump lacks the attention span and public support needed for a long war. He cannot “put his boots on the ground” and this is the reason behind his repeated messages to the Iranians to “help” and “be there” as they take over the country. He has faced intense criticism not only for starting the war without Congressional approval at home, but also for the potential casualties and long duration of the mission.
As with Gaza, Netanyahu has no real plan other than destruction and death. He wants to keep the war going for as long as possible to keep the opposition at bay and ensure his political survival. No wonder the official message about this war was that Israel would participate in the war “for as long as necessary” and that it would be “longer than the June war” and would be a “historic operation.” The more the rhetoric increases, the more the campaign itself becomes an endless and indiscriminate bombing campaign, and the civilian casualties will increase.
This divide will become clearer as the United States and Israel issue increasingly distancing statements, each citing their own exclusionary grounds and deadlines. President Trump plans to continue sending probes as the Islamic Republic begins the constitutional process to elect a new supreme leader, meaning the Islamic Republic is largely alive and well. Israel will remain deliberately vague, explaining its progress in shiny open-ended terms like “genuine regime change.”
Expect this unholy alliance to grow slowly and then rapidly dissolve soon after. Their victory is at best a pyrrhic victory.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
