The war with Iran is now in its second week, and its impact has gone beyond a local conflict to the global level. This conflict, aggressively and illegally imposed by the United States and Israel, not only disrupts diplomatic efforts but also challenges the foundations of international law.
In response to this invasion, Iran will exercise its inherent right of self-defense, which is a strategic necessity to maintain territorial integrity and national sovereignty. For our country, this war is a war of survival, governed by limited red lines and strategic imperatives.
The need for genuine guarantees
Iran has previously been forced into war during delicate negotiations. Past experience, such as the war with Iraq and recent diplomatic developments, shows that unless genuine and reliable guarantees are obtained, there remains a risk of repeated acts of aggression.
The experience of two acts of aggression during nuclear negotiations and sanctions in June 2025 and February this year underscores the importance of deterrence and defense preparedness, and that diplomacy must be accompanied by operational capabilities.
Furthermore, attacks on infrastructure that represent a failure of the invaders’ illusions of regime change, and demands from opposition parties to control leadership succession, should not be seen simply as strategic miscalculations.
Rather, they represent a lack of understanding of the meaning of self-determination and structures that deeply value independence. The selection of Seid Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts as the third supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran clearly demonstrates the country’s commitment to independence.
military aspects of war
From a military perspective, the United States has a large presence in the region. Currently, three U.S. carrier strike groups are stationed in this area, representing about 25% of the operational U.S. carrier fleet. While this presence is intended to put pressure on Iran with a show of force, the operational reality shows that even such a show of force does not allow the United States to fully secure its assets in the region.
The destruction of two major U.S. radars in the region marked a pivotal moment in the war, highlighting Iran’s ability to counter advanced threats and wisely manage the conflict.
Moreover, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 20% of global oil exports, has direct strategic implications and proves Iran’s effective economic and geopolitical deterrence against external pressure.
Economic and energy impact
The war with Iran is having a serious impact on energy markets and the global economy. The closure of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to soar. Brent crude oil rose from $73 on February 27 to $107 on March 8, an increase of more than 40 percent in 10 days.
Additionally, about 20 percent of global LNG production was taken offline, and several oil-rich countries in the region saw oil production decline. The situation is increasing pressure on global supply chains, and a prolonged crisis could have an even more severe impact on global food markets, fertilizers and other essential goods than the COVID-19 pandemic.
Market uncertainty and price volatility are forcing countries and companies dependent on global supply chains to rethink their policies and economic structures, potentially leading to fundamental changes in global trade and energy.
geopolitical aspects
Beyond the military and economic aspects, a war with Iran has far-reaching geopolitical implications. One major effect is the gradual rift between the United States and its Western and regional allies over policy towards Tehran. Differences in economic interests, differing security perspectives, and regional rivalries are likely to weaken the traditional cohesion of the Western alliance.
The narrative of America’s unilateral victory in the war does not reflect the reality on the ground and primarily serves domestic needs to project power and political legitimacy. Indeed, US efforts to control domestic public opinion are deeply out of touch with operational realities in the region.
Additionally, the role of non-Western countries such as China, India, and Russia is important in this equation. These countries can be important variables in international diplomacy, energy markets, and regional stability.
Long-term and strategic impact
A war imposed against Iran could redefine the regional and global balance of power. Increasing uncertainty in global markets, divisions between Western countries, and Iran’s growing strategic importance in the regional and energy equations all signal new geopolitical shifts.
For our country, this crisis has shown that military deterrence, active diplomacy, national security, and crisis management are fundamental pillars for countering complex threats. Coordinated interaction between defense capabilities and diplomacy can prevent the recurrence of offensive acts and enable crisis management at regional and global levels.
The war imposed against Iran represents a multidimensional crisis with military, economic, geopolitical, and human dimensions. Iran has maintained its survival by relying on its inherent right of self-defense and has demonstrated the ability to resist sophisticated aggression.
Past experience has emphasized the need for genuine guarantees in negotiations and international diplomacy, and the role of operational deterrence. The effects of this war range from soaring oil prices and disrupting global supply chains to rifts in Western alliances and shifts in regional power dynamics.
Ultimately, this war serves as a clear example of Iran’s approach to the importance of deterrence, assured diplomacy, and wise crisis management, and shows that any miscalculation by an adversary can have long-term, structural consequences for regional and global security.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
