Two armed members of Iranian police special forces stand behind a national flag placed on an armored military vehicle during a pro-government rally in downtown Tehran, Iran, January 12, 2026.
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The U.S. virtual embassy in Iran issued a security alert early Friday, urging Americans to “leave Iran now” and make plans to leave the country without relying on U.S. government assistance.
The notification came ahead of a meeting between the United States and Iran scheduled for Friday in Oman, but there is little sign that the two countries have found common ground on the topic of the talks.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were scheduled to participate in talks with a team led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, U.S. and Iranian officials said.
Friday’s talks will be the first official talks between Iran and the United States since tensions escalated last June when a 12-day war with Israel led to U.S. airstrikes that severely damaged three of Iran’s main nuclear facilities.
Disagreements over the scope and location of the talks have cast doubt on whether they will produce results, leaving the risk of U.S. military action.
The US government has reportedly called on Iran to dismantle its enriched uranium stockpile, place limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program and end arms and funding to militant groups in the Middle East. President Trump has threatened military attack if Tehran does not meet US demands.
Iran has objected to the US request as an unacceptable violation of its sovereignty and has threatened to respond forcefully to any attack by attacking US military targets in the region and in Israel.
Is there a glimmer of hope?
The diplomatic move comes against a backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East, with the United States building up military forces in the Gulf in recent weeks. Ahead of the meeting, President Trump dispatched a “massive fleet” led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said the chances of an agreement or détente in negotiations are low because the core demands of both sides remain “divergent and there is zero trust.”
McNally predicted there was a 75% chance that the United States and Iran would engage in military hostilities in the coming days or weeks. He said possible scenarios include a Venezuela-style blockade, selective or limited attacks, or a large-scale military conflict.
The talks were originally scheduled to be held in Istanbul with foreign ministers from Arab countries including Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey invited, with Turkey playing a leading role as a mediator.
But on Tuesday, Tehran requested a last-minute change of venue and format, calling for the meeting to be held in Oman and for attendees to be limited to Iranian and American representatives.
Trump is putting American credibility at risk, so if Iran refuses to make significant concessions, the U.S. president will feel compelled to act, McNally said. On the other hand, if the United States refrains from attacking, Israel could launch attacks against Iranian missile, nuclear, and regime leadership targets.
Tensions escalated as nationwide protests erupted in Iran earlier this year. The Iranian government has cracked down on the protests, leaving at least 6,883 people dead as of Wednesday, according to the Washington-based Iranian specialist group Human Rights Defenders News.
President Trump had previously threatened to intervene to help protesters in the country, but ultimately backed away from military action.
—CNBC’s Asriel Chua contributed to this report.
