The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has strained Washington’s relations with China and India, as Beijing becomes more vocal and New Delhi faces increased energy risks.
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The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz not only puts pressure on Iran, but also gradually increases pressure on two of Iran’s most important relationships in Asia: India and China.
About 98% of Iranian oil exports go to China, and with a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping just weeks away, Washington’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran risks destabilizing the fragile detente the administration has carefully cultivated with Beijing.
India, which has a complicated relationship with the United States, increasingly finds American policies at odds with its economic interests, most acutely in the energy shock that is spilling over into the economy.
President Trump is scheduled to visit China in mid-May, and his administration has repeatedly said in recent weeks that it hopes the bilateral relationship is stable enough to get a high-stakes meeting off the ground.
“The Iran conflict, especially the blockade, could upend this effort,” said Wendy Cutler, deputy director of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator.
Signs of friction are already showing. The Chinese government, which had largely kept its stance on President Trump’s economic blockade, appeared to have hardened on Tuesday. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun called the move “dangerous and irresponsible” and “will only exacerbate tensions.”
More than a month into the war, President Trump has unleashed a familiar tactic, threatening to impose 50% tariffs on China if it supplies weapons to Iran. The Chinese government pushed back, with Guo rejecting what he called “baseless slander and malicious connections.”
“If the United States tries to sell arms as an excuse for additional tariffs, China will firmly retaliate with countermeasures,” Guo said.
Meanwhile, India faces pressures of a different kind. Due to its heavy dependence on imported energy, it is increasingly exposed to the economic impact of conflict.
Earlier this month, India resumed buying Iranian oil and gas for the first time in seven years, under a temporary U.S. waiver that ensured safe passage for ships through the Tehran Strait.
After a nearly 40-minute telephone conversation with President Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Tuesday that the two leaders had a “useful exchange of views” on the Middle East conflict and that India “supports early de-escalation and restoration of peace.”
Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia geopolitical risk advisor at consultancy Teneo, said even if the US government made special provisions for India, it was unlikely to cover all of New Delhi’s gas needs.
As the US economic blockade takes hold, India is likely to halt oil imports from Iran, otherwise “New Delhi-US relations will deteriorate,” Chaturvedi said.
For now, “India has no incentive to further jeopardize its relationship with the United States and move it closer to a point of no return,” Chaturvedi added.
weather the storm
However, the impact of the energy shock has affected the two Asian economies in different ways.
Thanks to its vast oil reserves and diverse energy mix, China’s exposure to energy shocks remains more manageable than other major economies.
The scale of Iranian oil flows still reaching China highlights how structurally intact Iran’s oil trade remains. Maritime intelligence firm Windward estimates that as of Tuesday, approximately 157.7 million barrels of Iranian oil had spilled into the ocean, nearly 98% of which was bound for China.
Eurasia Group’s China director Dan Wang said China’s strategic and commercial oil inventories, together with barrels in transit, represent well over 120 days’ worth of net imports. “Even if only Iranian barrels were lost, China could absorb the shock by diversifying into other sources and increasing its return to coal,” he added.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday reportedly slammed disputed China as an “untrustworthy global partner” and accused China of hoarding oil supplies instead of easing the global crisis.
In contrast, India does not have a comparable buffer. Sumedha Dasgupta, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, has net inflows of 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), making it one of the countries most vulnerable to economic blockades.
With less than 60 days of oil supplies, further disruption to Middle East flows would make landing in New Delhi much more difficult.
This situation is particularly acute for liquefied petroleum gas, which is the primary cooking and heating fuel for homes and commercial establishments. Dasgupta said India does not have meaningful strategic LPG reserves, and if imports stall, reserves held by refiners and distributors can only cover two to three weeks’ worth of demand.
Almost all of India’s LPG imports primarily come from the Middle East, which accounted for about 66% of demand last year.
Risk of calculation errors
Analysts also say the likelihood of a violent counterattack from China and New Delhi that could quickly deteriorate relations with the United States remains low.
The blockade, similar to the “Liberation Day” tariffs, is indiscriminate and applies to all buyers of sanctioned Iranian oil, rather than singling out China, Wang said. “The Chinese government will likely protest at the diplomatic level, but it is unlikely to overreact with large-scale retaliation.”
Meanwhile, Chaturvedi said India is likely to shift its energy imports away from Iran and instead look to Russia, the United States, Australia and other supplier countries once the US government’s exemption expires.
“Prime Minister Modi is unlikely to cross the red line drawn by President Trump,” he added.
Still, any miscalculation or direct confrontation at sea could cause a rapid deterioration in diplomatic posture, risking the fragile stability of détente between the United States and China.
“The interception of a Chinese ship by the United States is likely to be a major incident, because in such a situation China would stand up to the United States,” said David Mir, head of China at Eurasia Group.
On Tuesday, a U.S.-sanctioned tanker linked to China left the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Gulf of Oman after President Trump’s naval blockade went into effect.
