New York primary will test Mamdani’s support and Trump’s support

Voters in New York, Maryland, Utah and South Carolina head to the polls in Tuesday’s primaries, which will test the power of outside money, party power and the ability of politicians to win over both.

The closely watched race is in New York’s 12th District, where Democrats are choosing a candidate from the nation’s safest blue seat to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler. In addition to Reps. Alex Boas and Micah Lasher, the crowded Manhattan primary also includes Rep. Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of President John F. Kennedy.

Mr. Boas’ record on artificial intelligence regulation and outside funding has turned the race into a national proxy battle over how aggressively Democrats should regulate one of the fastest growing areas of the economy.

Elsewhere in New York, Mayor Zoran Mamdani is trying to prove that his democratic socialist political movement can outlast his own campaign and reorganize Congress. In the northern state, the Republican primary to replace U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik will test whether President Donald Trump’s support can overwhelm local Republicans.

In Maryland, Democrats are choosing a successor to former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, while Rep. April McClain Delaney faces a privately funded challenge from former Rep. David Trone. And in Utah, a new House map disrupted both parties’ primaries.

Here are five things to look out for on Tuesday.

Mamdani is not included in Tuesday’s vote, but his political campaign is. A year after his surprise victory in the primary changed New York politics, the 34-year-old New York mayor is turning a left-wing coalition into a force in Congress.

He is supporting Daria Riza Avila Chevalier against Rep. Adriano Espaillat in NY-13, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander against Rep. Dan Goldman in NY-10, and Rep. Claire Valdez in the race to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velasquez in NY-7.

This support infuriated some in the Mamdani coalition.

Espaillat is the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and a close ally of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, also of New York. Velasquez, an early Mamdani supporter, broke with him over Valdez. Labor unions, Latino leaders and some progressives are also outraged by his decision to challenge incumbents and longtime allies.

But Mamdani believes Democratic voters are more forgiving of disruption than party leaders realize.

Just 63% of New York City Democratic voters view the party favorably, while 35% view it unfavorably, according to a survey by Honan Strategy Group. Half said electing a young, progressive generation willing to take on the establishment is a top priority for this year’s primaries.

The poll also found that 43% of Democratic voters in the Big Apple said primary challenges to incumbents like Mr. Espaillat were healthy for the party, while 13% said they were a divisive nuisance.

A victory for the Mamdani-backed candidate would demonstrate that the mayor, whose term ends in 2033, is a progressive power broker beyond City Hall. A loss would indicate that his case is personal and not transferable.

There is also a fight over money in New York.

In NY-13, Mr. Espaillat is trying to stop Mr. Avila Chevalier, whose campaign is centered around corporate funding and campaigning against U.S. policy toward Israel.

AIPAC, an influential pro-Israel lobbying group, became a major player through its super PAC (United Democracy Project). UDP donated $650,000 to BOLD America, which spent at least $2.8 million supporting Espaillat and opposing Avila Chevalier. Other pro-espai groups are also joining the effort, including the Latino Victory Fund, Project 218, and the Progressive Unity Fund.

Avila Chevalier has received outside support from Justice Democrats and American Priorities, pro-Palestinian super PACs formed in opposition to AIPAC. But to the left, they say the pro-incumbent spending is also evidence that national groups are trying to separate safe Democratic seats from progressive challengers who are more critical of Israel.

The same dynamics play out elsewhere. A pro-Goldman super PAC spent more than $300,000 on NY-10. Boas has been backed by technology groups in NY-12, and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has invested $10 million in Mr. Lasher, a former aide and favorite to succeed Mr. Nadler.

Maryland Democrats face two very different tests of power.

In the 5th Congressional District, Hoyer’s retirement will lead to a 24-candidate primary for the seat he held for 23 terms.

The field also includes state Rep. Adrian Boafo and former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who gained national fame for defending the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Boafo, a former Hoyer aide, has the clearest establishment line, receiving support from Hoyer, Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks. He also benefited from $8.8 million in outside spending, including $4.9 million from crypto-backed Protect Progress, $2.9 million from AIPAC’s United Democracy Project, and $500,000 from Mr. Hoyer’s leadership PAC, according to Roll Call.

In the neighboring 6th Congressional District, McClain Delaney is trying to thwart Tron, the Total Wine co-founder who gave up his seat in a failed 2024 Senate bid. Two years after spending $63 million of his own money on his Senate campaign, Tron loaned his campaign $25 million.

The race in the western state of Utah on Tuesday is the clearest example of how redistricting is changing the shape of the House majority race.

The court-ordered map created a Democratic-leaning 1st District based in Salt Lake City, giving the party a rare opportunity to break into Utah’s all-Republican House of Representatives.

Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams, the last Democrat representing Utah in the Legislature, is running against state Sen. Nate Bruin, tax attorney Michael Farrell and political newcomer Liban Mohammed.

This new line also complicates things for Republicans, placing candidates in less familiar territory and turning the redistricting battle itself into a major issue. Rep. Blake Moore is running against Karian Lisonbee in the 2nd District, while Rep. Celeste Malloy is trying to unseat Phil Lyman in the 3rd District.

Beyond Utah, redistricting battles across the country are already helping to define the 2026 House battlegrounds.

Trump’s support has weighed heavily so far this year’s primary season. But in upstate New York, it is colliding with the state Republican Party machine.

In the 21st District, the race to replace U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik is a battle between first-time candidate and Sticker Mule CEO Rep. Anthony Constantino, backed by President Trump, and state Rep. Robert Smullen, a retired Marine colonel backed by state Republicans.

This district should be friendly terrain for President Trump. Trump won about 60% of the vote in the chamber in 2024, making Stefanik one of his staunchest allies in the House.

Mr. Constantino embraced the MAGA spectacle and financed his own campaign with millions of dollars. Mr. Smullen has spent far less, but he has support from 12 of the district’s 15 Republican county committees and conservative lines, and could remain on the November ballot even if he loses in the Republican primary.

A victory for Mr. Smullen would mark a rare limit to Mr. Trump’s influence. If the Republican Party remains divided for an extended period of time, it could create a small hole in a seat that Democrats have little chance of flipping.