CONCORD, N.C. – Rachel Wagoner describes Concord, N.C., as the kind of place she always envisioned raising her three children. It’s safe, has good schools, a vibrant downtown and a neighborhood full of other families.
But these days, that idyllic life is becoming harder to come by. Wagoner, who stays at home with her three children while her husband works outside the home, has considered returning to paid work for the past year as rising prices for groceries and gas have strained their finances.
“It’s becoming increasingly difficult to make ends meet,” Wagoner told CNBC. Things that her family once considered routine are “now luxuries, like going out to eat downtown or coming downtown to shop.”
The cost of living squeeze has become a deciding issue in North Carolina’s pivotal open Senate race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, as well as in many other races for control of the House.
Meanwhile, Concord continues to grow. Across Cabarrus County, just northeast of Charlotte, subdivisions are expanding, major employers are expanding and billions of dollars in investment are flowing into the county. Eli Lilly. Unemployment is low and poverty rates are below national levels.
Basically, this county is thriving in most respects. But speaking to many residents, they feel that prosperity is out of reach.
“Everything feels bigger,” said Nicole Matz, a mother who lives near Kannapolis. They say they don’t have enough money to live on between rent, gas and groceries. “I can’t live in a single-income household now. … I don’t think that’s possible.”
Shop local sign seen in Concord, North Carolina.
Laura Garrison | CNBC
Roy Cooper, a former two-term Democratic governor and Senate candidate, has spent months campaigning on the slogan “reducing the cost of goods.”
“From grocery stores to gas stations, working families here in Concord and across the state are being hurt by rising prices,” Cooper said at the Sept. 2 event.
Opponent Michael Whatley, a Republican, is trying to flip the script, arguing that Democrats like Cooper created today’s affordability woes.
The former Republican National Committee chairman and close ally of President Donald Trump attacked Cooper’s opposition to Republican tax cuts, pointing to increases in energy, health care and housing costs during his tenure.
“If Cooper wants to ‘lower the cost of goods,’ he should look in the mirror,” Whatley campaign spokesman DJ Griffin said in a statement to CNBC.
Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College in Salisbury, North Carolina, said it’s up to voters to decide who to blame.
“Both candidates are aware that the public is dissatisfied and feeling oppressed,” Bitzer told CNBC. “Cooper wants voters to focus on what they’re paying now. Whatley wants them to track that cost through Cooper’s tenure in Raleigh and the inflation of the Biden era.”
Former North Carolina Governor and North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper (left) and former Republican National Committee Chairman and North Carolina Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley.
Al Drago | Shelby Tauber | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Kabbarus as a measuring stick
Christopher Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University who is not affiliated with Roy Cooper, said Cabarrus County and its Charlotte suburbs will be a key test case to see which explanation will break through.
The state remains a Republican territory, but the gap is much smaller than it was a decade ago. Mr. Trump won Mr. Cabarrus by nearly 20 points in 2016, but that margin declined to 9.5 points in 2020 and 7.6 points in 2024.
Christopher Cooper told CNBC that part of that shift is due to Charlotte’s growth pushing further outward, bringing Democratic-leaning voting patterns into communities that were once rural and suburban.
“There seems to be an influx of people from Charlotte,” Willie Brown, who has lived in the area for six years, told CNBC. “I saw that a new apartment complex is being built here.”
Political change is not limited to the suburbs of Cabarrus. In the battleground state of Georgia, for example, in 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won suburban Cobb County by more than 12 points. Twelve years later, former vice president and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won by nearly 15 points.
However, economic growth is putting further pressure on household budgets.
The average annual household income in Cabarrus is about $89,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Living Wage Calculator estimates that a working couple with two children would need a total of $113,966 in pre-tax income to cover basic expenses, which is about $25,000 more than the countywide median household income.
For Wagoner, bridging that financial gap could mean finding a second paycheck. But returning to work means giving up some of the things she values most about being at home, while also potentially incurring new costs.
“It’s going to be really hurtful to our children as well,” she said.
MIT estimates child care costs for a Cabarrus household of two working adults and two children to be approximately $22,466 per year.
National issue, North Carolina test
So far, Cooper’s message appears to be the most groundbreaking.
He has maintained a consistent lead in the polls throughout the race, but at least one poll shows the race is tight. At High Point University, he led Whatley among likely voters in April, 50% to 42%. By August, the gap had narrowed to 50% to 45%.
The April survey was conducted from March 26 to April 6 and included a sample of 703 likely voters. The August survey was conducted from August 3rd to August. 12 included a sample of 660 likely voters. Because both were online surveys rather than randomized polls, High Point did not include a margin of error.
As Whatley’s profile grows, his range narrows. An Elon University poll conducted in late July found that 53% of registered voters had heard of him at least “somewhat”, up from 35% in an Elon University poll in March. Cooper’s corresponding figure was 84%.
The July survey was conducted from July 23 to July 31 and included a final sample of 800 North Carolina adults. The March survey was conducted from March 13th to March 20th and included 800 adults. Both were conducted online by YouGov. The margin of error for registered voters was plus or minus about 4.4 percentage points in each poll.
Still, Bitzer said Cooper remains well-positioned because of the personal brand he built over decades in North Carolina politics and his two gubernatorial victories while Trump carried the state.
“Mr. Cooper has a credibility with rural voters that many Democrats have struggled to match,” Bitzer said. “I don’t think that’s patronizing.”
This could be helpful in Republican-leaning areas like Cabarrus, where Democrats don’t necessarily need to win to improve their overall standing.
“Cooper just needs to keep Cabarrus close and that would be a good sign,” Christopher Cooper said. “He has been successful in the past in limiting Democratic losses outside of the state’s major population centers.”
But that difference is ultimately made up of voters like Wagoner. She describes herself as an independent and told CNBC that she has not yet decided on a Senate candidate. Asked if affordability influenced his vote, Wagoner didn’t hesitate.
“Oh, of course,” she said.
Meanwhile, Mattes is still learning about the candidates. Brown also told CNBC that he plans to vote but has not decided on a candidate, and that health care and cost of living are among the most important issues.
“Concord is a great place to live,” he said. “But…hopefully we can afford it.”
