DALLAS, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 9: US President Donald Trump speaks on stage during the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 9, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. US President Donald Trump will headline the first-ever midterm convention of the Republican National Committee, aiming to highlight his administration’s accomplishments and drum up support for Republican candidates, just two months before the next election on November 3. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
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US President Donald Trump has promised to give every adult American a $5,000 “dividend” if the Republican Party wins the upcoming midterm elections.
Americans are scheduled to vote in the midterm elections in early November, and Democrats are currently expected to win a majority in the House of Representatives.
Such an outcome would likely create barriers to President Trump’s legislative policy and send a signal about public opinion regarding the president’s policy mix throughout his second term.
“This is my promise: If Republicans win both the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, because of our tremendous strength and economic success, we will give every adult American a $5,000 dividend,” he told the audience at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas.
“I want you to pretend I’m on the ballot,” he added.
fiscal pressure
The proposed “Trump dividend” payments are estimated to total more than $1 trillion, raising questions about how such costs would be covered and the impact on the fiscal burden facing the federal budget.
The potential payments compare to the $1.27 trillion the U.S. government has already spent on interest payments on the national debt so far this fiscal year, and the $1.36 trillion earmarked for defense spending in 2026.
The U.S. national deficit, caused by federal spending exceeding revenue, is approaching $1.8 trillion for the fiscal year to date.
The government spent more than $6 trillion between October and July, leaving the deficit at about 5.8% of gross domestic product.
Meanwhile, U.S. government borrowing costs have risen sharply in recent weeks on concerns about persistent inflation, government Treasury buybacks and soaring national debt, which reached 122.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year.
legal challenge
The proposal may also face legal obstacles.
Under U.S. federal law, encouraging someone to vote, withholding a vote, or offering or paying money to vote for or against a candidate is a criminal offense, punishable by a fine, up to one year in prison, or both. Willful violations can be punishable by up to two years in prison.
CNBC reached out to the White House for clarification on the legal implications of Trump’s dividend proposal.
In July, a bipartisan commission found that tech billionaire Elon Musk may have violated state law by handing out $1 million checks to voters in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race. The Wisconsin Elections Commission referred the two charges to the Brown County District Attorney’s Office, clearing the way for prosecutors to decide whether to charge Musk.
Musk handed out checks to overturn the court’s majority control and spent millions supporting Republican candidate Brad Schimmel, who ultimately lost to Democratic-backed Susan Crawford.
The president previously promised a series of payments to Americans, but those have yet to materialize.
President Trump supported the idea of a $5,000 “DOGE dividend” at the beginning of his second term. The idea was to distribute savings to Americans from cuts enacted by the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency (then led by Musk), but that never materialized.
His proposal for a “tariff rebate,” a $2,000 payment funded by customs revenue, also failed to materialize. This idea became clear when the Supreme Court ruled against the legality of President Trump’s tariff system.
The first Trump and Biden administrations spent trillions of dollars in checks to households to stimulate the economy during the coronavirus pandemic, a move some experts say may have led to a subsequent spike in inflation.
