Fighters loyal to Houthi authorities shout slogans at a rally to recruit more fighters in Sanaa, September 10, 2026.
Mohamed Huwais | AFP | Getty Images
Iranian-backed Houthi militants have seized control of the Yemeni port city of Mokha on the Red Sea coast, moving Iran closer to gaining new influence in its six-month conflict with the United States.
The Houthi takeover of Mokha is seen as a major setback for Saudi Arabia, which Yemeni forces are pushing back. It could also increase Iranian pressure around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz, crucial oil choke points on either side of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Houthis took control of a city on Yemen’s Red Sea coast on Thursday, the Associated Press reported, citing Yemeni and Houthi officials. CNBC could not independently confirm this report.
Mokha, the strategic city on Yemen’s Red Sea coast from which Mocha coffee gets its name, is located about 75 kilometers (46 miles) north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets.
The strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb strait has increased significantly since the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran in late February, with the waterway emerging as an alternative route for oil to reach Asia.
There are now concerns that the Houthis’ advance into the Bab el-Mandeb strait could have a major impact on global trade, especially if the militants increase their threats and attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Hamish Kinnear, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said the capture of Moka was a “major blow” to Saudi Arabia, raising the possibility that the group would tighten its grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
“The Houthis were already threatening Saudi shipping from their previous positions, but their capture of Mokha opens the possibility for them to advance further towards the Bab el-Mandeb coastline and take closer control of the chokepoint,” Kinnear said in a research note.
Yemeni coast guard troops loyal to the internationally recognized government board a patrol boat in the Red Sea off the coast of Mokha, a government-controlled town in western Taiz province near the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, April 15, 2024.
Khaled Ziad | AFP | Getty Images
Kinnear said that as the war continues, both Tehran and Washington believe time is on their side, and that a new ceasefire is unlikely for now.
“Oil and gas prices, and specifically the prices of refined products such as diesel, will continue to rise, even if U.S. convoys and alternative Strait of Hormuz exports soften the impact on prices,” Kinnear said.
What’s next for oil prices?
Oil prices fell on Friday morning, but both major indexes remain on track to end the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May.
international benchmark brent crude oil Futures expiring in November were trading 2.1% lower at $105.37 a barrel. west texas intermediate Futures for the October expiry fell 1.7% to $100.76.
ING strategists said the oil market’s resilience is being tested by the clear recognition of growing threats to regional supplies, and energy market participants are likely to be reassessing both the duration and severity of the conflict.
ING strategists said that despite continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz, flows remain well below pre-war levels, underscoring how fragile the situation has become.
“Saudi energy infrastructure and oil exports from the Red Sea are increasingly at risk as Yemen’s Houthis target Saudi Arabia,” ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Mantei said in a research note published Friday.
“Recent events have increased the threat to shipping around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with the Houthis seizing control of Yemen’s Red Sea port Mokha,” they added.
