Xi, Putin and Modi meet at BRICS summit amid pressure from President Trump

Last year, when Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China, images of the three leaders smiling, holding hands, and having a lively conversation went viral on the internet.

This weekend, they will reunite in New Delhi against an increasingly complex geopolitical backdrop.

India has embraced the leadership of BRICS, a group of major emerging economies seeking greater influence in a world system long dominated by the United States and other Western nations. Mr. Xi, Mr. Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian are also expected to attend with Mr. Modi.

The United States and Israel are at war with Iran, the United States continues to pressure Russia for a deal to end the war in Ukraine, and President Donald Trump’s trade policies are disrupting relations with allies and rivals alike.

Against this backdrop, the summit will focus on whether these pressures are giving some BRICS members reason to cooperate on trade, energy, payments and other areas, even though deep divisions limit the scope of cooperation.

President Trump’s policies are not the reason these countries are talking. India and Russia have maintained close ties for decades, but the thaw between India and China began before the recent US trade tensions. But tariffs, sanctions and other economic pressures from the U.S. government add another element to their calculations.

Xi’s visit to India is his first since 2019 and marks the next step in a cautious thaw following deadly clashes along the two countries’ disputed Himalayan border in 2020.

Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi have sought to stabilize relations by restoring flights, visas and high-level contacts. But tensions persist over the two countries’ borders, India’s large trade deficit with China and strategic rivalries across Asia.

The United States has also spent years deepening ties with India, a member of the Quad along with the United States, Japan, and Australia.

India has long pursued strategic autonomy, maintaining ties with Russia and Iran, and deepening cooperation with Washington while improving ties with China.

Chietij Vajpayee, senior South Asia fellow at Chatham House, wrote that recent tensions with the Trump administration are causing New Delhi to reinvest in other relationships.

“The meeting between Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi is likely to further advance the ongoing reset of bilateral relations and foster trust. The August meeting between China’s foreign minister and India’s national security adviser marked significant progress on the long-standing border dispute,” Vajpayee said in an article earlier this week.

Russia, on the other hand, has different motives. Western sanctions against Ukraine have increased the importance of partners other than Europe and the United States. China has become an important economic partner, and India is a major buyer of Russian oil.

For Putin, deepening economic ties with China and India are an important buffer against sanctions, while the summit is an opportunity for Russia to demonstrate that it maintains ties with some of the world’s largest economies.

Although President Trump has made tariffs a centerpiece of his economic and foreign policy agenda, the U.S. government continues to impose sanctions and other economic measures against Russia and Iran.

For BRICS member states, the use of these tools has led to greater emphasis on alternative channels of trade and payments.

The group discussed expanding trade in local currencies and developing alternative cross-border payment mechanisms. Vajpayee said India is trying to move the BRICS away from a broader de-dollarization drive, emphasizing instead the use of national currencies and digital payments to reduce cross-border trade costs.

Russia is increasingly trading outside the dollar system, but the Kremlin said this week that it was not seeking complete “de-dollarisation”.

President Trump has previously described BRICS as an “attack on the dollar” and threatened to impose tariffs on member countries if they try to undermine the US currency.

But BRICS members are divided over the extent to which they want to reduce their dependence on the dollar, which continues to dominate the world’s foreign exchange reserves and international trade.

BRICS has expanded beyond Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to include countries such as Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia, increasing its economic and geopolitical weight but making consensus more difficult to reach.

Saran Sidor, director of the Quincy Institute’s Global South Program, called the BRICS a “dysfunctional family.”

He told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday that the differences between the two countries are “most clearly and clearly” on security issues, noting that Iran and the UAE are both members of the Middle East war, even though they are on opposing sides.

Sidle said BRICS is a “pragmatic club with limited objectives”. He said its members are primarily focused on development, trade and reforming world institutions, rather than building an ideological bloc against the United States.

Vajpayee similarly argued that India wants BRICS to promote a non-Western worldview without becoming explicitly anti-Western, even though some member states are pushing BRICS in a more geopolitical direction.

India’s desire for a deeper relationship with the US points to overlapping relationships, which complicates the idea of ​​BRICS as an emerging anti-American alliance.

Other BRICS members, including the UAE, also maintain important ties with Washington, while diversifying their economic ties. The UAE recently pledged to invest $46 billion in various sectors in Germany.

Mr. Xi is scheduled to visit the United States later this month.

Vajpayee said that despite different visions of BRICS’ role, member countries still see value in BRICS. He pointed out that Modi-Xi’s meeting at the 2024 summit helped initiate a reset between India and China.

As Mr. Xi, Mr. Putin and Mr. Modi meet again in New Delhi, the question is whether U.S. tariffs, sanctions and other economic pressure will make the summit the catalyst for a new shift.