Vladislav Vlasiuk, Advisor to the President and Commissioner for Sanctions Policy, explains the need for Ukraine’s partner countries to impose interim sanctions on Russian ballistic weapons manufacturers on August 26, 2026 and to cut off the supply of foreign components to the Russian military-industrial complex (Kiev, Ukraine).
Yevn Kotenko | Future Publishing | Getty Images
SINGAPORE — Ukraine’s sanctions envoy said a halving of oil revenues could force Russia to withdraw from the war within six months, pressuring Asian governments to close loopholes that allow Russian tankers and weapons parts to pass through the region undetected.
Vladislav Vlasiuk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s commissioner for sanctions policy, said during a visit to Singapore on Tuesday that sanctions remain the most effective means of forcing Russia into serious peace negotiations.
“Sanctions are a very good way to get the Russian side to start a dialogue,” Vlasiuk said in remarks to the media at the Ukrainian embassy in Singapore. “We also believe that the previous sanctions have caused many difficulties for the Russian economy, many constraints and changes in power relations.”
He added that if oil revenues, a key source of finance for Russia, are cut by at least half, further “truly devastating sanctions” could put Russia in a “difficult situation” and force it to withdraw within the next six months.
The remarks came as Kiev ramps up support for Asia, which is increasingly seen as a vulnerable region within the sanctions regime set up by the United States, the European Union and G7 countries since the 2022 Russian invasion.
Refiners in India and China are absorbing much of the discounted Russian crude, helping the Russian government maintain oil revenues even as Western governments tighten price cap regulations.
Southeast Asian ports and free trade zones have emerged as transit points for ship-to-ship transfers that obscure the origin of sanctioned Russian cargo.
During his trip to Asia, Vlasiuk said he plans to meet with officials from Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand to discuss Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which transports oil without relying on Western companies and thus avoids imposed price caps, and the flow of microelectronics to Russia’s defense industry.
The parts recovered from the missile shot down in the Kiev region last month came primarily from the United States, Russia, China, Taiwan and Japan, according to files reviewed by CNBC, highlighting how deeply embedded global supply chains remain in Russian weapons production even after more than three years of export restrictions.
“Some of the microelectronic components used in these missiles reach Russia through the Asian region,” the Ukrainian envoy said.
He added that the risks extend beyond Russia: “We have to be very careful when shipping certain types of machines, because otherwise they end up in the military-industrial complexes of terrorist states, including Iran and North Korea.”
“Gray zone” tactics
Vlasiuk also warned not to underestimate Russia’s willingness to conduct operations below the threshold of open conflict with NATO members.
In recent weeks, Russia has ramped up pressure on Ukraine’s European allies through a series of “gray zone” actions aimed at destabilizing local governments as it struggles to gain ground in the country and absorb increasing Ukrainian drone and missile attacks in the country.
European authorities have linked Moscow to an increase in drone intrusions, sabotage, cyberattacks and other hostile acts across the continent in recent months.
“Wake up, everyone. The world has changed,” Vlasiuk said. “Russia is no longer such a funny bear. It’s no longer funny. It’s a dangerous bear. We have to fight back firmly and forcefully.”
