On September 30, 2026, flags and towels with portraits of Brazilian president and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator and presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro are sold on the streets of Brasilia.
Evaristo Sa | AFP | Getty Images
Brazil began reporting results Sunday afternoon in the first round of a closely contested presidential election, with Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro taking an early lead after a campaign dominated by corruption scandals, economic instability and accusations of U.S. interference.
The 13-candidate field is led by two clear front-runners. They are leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (80), who is seeking a fourth term, and Flavio (45), the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is seeking to return his father’s right-wing movement to power.
The vote share was reported to be around 11%, with Flavio leading Lula with 51.09% and the president’s 40.67%.
Early results showed that southern states leaning towards Mr Bolsonaro reported earlier, while votes from Mr Lula’s northeastern strongholds were typically counted later.
If no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes, the top two candidates will face off on October 25th. In a likely run-off, Lula and Flavio vote almost evenly, according to the survey.
A victory for the senator would extend a wave of victories by right-wing candidates aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump across Latin America, but Lula’s reelection could cause headaches for Washington, which has been at odds with governments over trade and security.
Despite growing concerns about Brazil’s finances and slowing economic growth, the campaign was short on policy debates, with both leading candidates absent from major televised debates.
undecided voters
Opinion polls up until Saturday showed Lula was likely to lead in the first round but a run-off was inevitable, but Flavio told reporters in Rio de Janeiro that he was confident he could win the presidency in the first round, citing voter dissatisfaction with his main opponent.
Flavio said he was counting on “protest votes from people who would vote for another candidate but are against Lula.” “I think a win in the first round is enough.”
Taise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in São Paulo, said her main goal was to oust Lula’s Workers’ Party from power.
“I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him within minutes,” she said, adding that she hoped psychiatrist and author August Curie would be a better candidate.
Fernando Tempel, 49, a management consultant, told Reuters he had originally planned to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state, but said he would vote for Flavio.
external interference
Meanwhile, Lula’s allies have warned that if he wins, the Trump administration could refuse to recognize the election results, citing an aborted plan to send U.S. officials to Brazil.
“What is at stake is the future of Brazil,” Lula said after voting in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo state.
Although President Trump has not formally endorsed any candidate, he has welcomed Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro to the White House and praised him publicly.
“I’m a little worried about everything that’s been happening lately, including the international situation. I feel like this election was more influenced by outsiders than previous elections,” said Cristiano, a 34-year-old doctor from Brasilia who voted for Lula and asked not to give his last name.
“We trust President Lula, who fights for national sovereignty,” said Pedro Palacio, 45, who was voting in Brasilia with his wife Andreia, two sons and two dogs. All were dressed in support of the president.
Brazil’s Electoral Court President Casio Nunez Marquez said in a press conference that as of Sunday afternoon, the election was proceeding normally.
“The team monitoring international risks has not identified any risks,” he said.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that Brazilian intelligence officials had briefed French and German delegations about alleged interference by the United States and Russia ahead of the election. The United States rejected claims of interference in Brazilian affairs.
economic headwinds
Despite falling inequality and unemployment, Mr Lula has struggled to win support from voters struggling with high living costs, high household debt and the threat of street crime and more widespread gang activity.
While Flavio Bolsonaro seeks to capitalize on concerns about the cost of living, Lula has moved to ban online gambling, expanded welfare and proposed new debt relief for families as the campaign heats up.
Rising spending and public debt exceeding 82% of GDP raise fiscal concerns that Brazil’s next president will need to address. The government has lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to just 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively.
“I voted for Brazil to start growing again,” said Marciano de Sousa e Silva, a Brasilia civil servant who moved to the right and voted for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022, and a former Lula voter who voted for Flavio on Sunday.
“The best social programs are the ones that encourage people to start businesses and actually create real wealth,” he said.
Campaign hit by scandal
The scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has overshadowed policy debates, engulfing much of Brazil’s political establishment and reigniting public anger over corruption.
Daniel Volcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and charged in a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation is looking into the banker’s ties to Flavio Bolsonaro, who federal police are investigating on money laundering charges related to the case, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
The candidate denies wrongdoing, but admitted he collected millions of dollars from Volcaro to make a film about his father.
Mr. Moraes’ ties to the banker, who is widely seen as an ally of Lula’s supporters, plunged the court into crisis a month before the vote and created new problems for the president. Moraes said the case against him was politically motivated for his role in Bolsonaro’s conviction.
On Sunday, voters will elect all 513 members of the House of Representatives and two-thirds of the Senate, where some members are pushing to impeach Moraes.
Since the impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff, a Lula ally, in 2016, Congress’s influence in Brazilian politics has grown and the stakes in parliamentary elections have increased.
