Funding race for 2026 midterm elections: Musk supports Republicans, Democrats advance

One of the last big campaign finance snapshots before Election Day on Nov. 3 is now public, and both political parties have found something they like. But campaign finance is flowing in a very different way, suggesting a more favorable environment for Democrats overall.

Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have become absolute cash cows, raising more money than their Republican rivals across the Senate and House battlegrounds.

But Republicans still have legs to stand on against an unprecedented flood of money from outside super PACs. tesla and space x CEO Elon Musk. The flood of capital may be enough to avert the worst of what has been a dangerous political environment for Republicans amid high inflation and low approval ratings for President Donald Trump.

Federal Election Commission filings, which came close to Thursday’s key deadline, detailed how much money candidates raised and spent between July and September, and provided insight into many of the outside groups supporting candidates. Additional submission deadlines will be set next week, when details of external funding will be revealed.

Here are CNBC’s five takeaways:

If Democrats want a blue wave fiscal case, they should start with the candidates themselves.

Democratic Senate candidates announced their gaudy third-quarter tallies. James Talarico collected $60.2 million in Texas, Jon Ossoff collected $33.1 million in Georgia, and Abdul El-Sayed collected $30.7 million in Michigan. Sherrod Brown collected $23.1 million in Ohio, Troy Jackson collected $20.4 million in Maine, Mary Peltola collected $14.1 million in Alaska, and Roy Cooper collected $12.2 million in North Carolina.

Even in reliably red Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton raised $9.4 million.

In some of those races, the Republican numbers were close. Ken Paxton collected about $10.2 million in Texas, Mike Rogers collected $9.7 million in Michigan, Susan Collins collected $5.2 million in Maine, and Jon Husted collected $4.8 million in Ohio.

Candidate money is especially powerful in the final stages because campaigns control where it goes and can qualify for lower TV ad rates than super PACs. In other words, Republicans may be able to close a dollar of funding gap with outside money, but it could cost them more than a dollar to do so.

The same fundraising ties extend to the House of Representatives.

In 13 of the 21 House races that Cook currently rates as toss-ups, Democratic candidates outperformed their Republican opponents by September, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings. For example, in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, Democrat Jamie Agar raised $2.1 million in the third quarter, while Republican Jennifer Balcomb raised about $313,000.

The surge in funding coincides with a change in the map. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter predicted last week that Democrats could pick up two to six seats in the Senate (enough to put a four-seat majority within range) and nine to 19 seats in the House, potentially flipping the chamber.

While Democratic candidates dominate direct contributions, Republicans are countering with overwhelming outside spending.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the Republican’s main Senate super PAC, raised a record $272.9 million from July to September, about $122 million more than the Democratic fund, according to FEC filings. On the House side, the Congressional Leadership Fund raised a record $94.4 million during the quarter and has $156 million in cash since October, according to FEC filings.

This outside funding serves as a financial backstop for Republican candidates who are at a disadvantage in direct fundraising. Texas is the most extreme example. According to FEC filings, SLF funneled $158 million to Texas PAC, a super PAC supporting Paxton.

Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal reported this week that Republicans spent $15 million through SLF to protect Sen. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska. In Alaska, outside groups account for about 80% of all ad buys, with SLF spending $14 million to support Sen. Dan Sullivan, according to a CNBC analysis of AdImpact data.

According to AdImpact, this blitz helped Republicans gain air-ad advantage in seven of the top eight Senate seats, and they won 25 of the 42 House seats rated “toss-up” or “lean” by the Cook Report as of Oct. 9.

But despite this lead, opinion polls have shown little movement in recent weeks.

No donor captures the scale, and thus the influence, of outside funding’s advantage better than Mr. Musk, the world’s richest man.

He poured more than $276 million into federal political groups in the third quarter, making him the largest known individual donor in the midterm elections. His disclosed donations included $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund and another $89 million to America PAC, according to FEC filings.

Most of that capital was allocated to a single rescue mission: Texas, his primary residence and business base.

Musk gave SLF $75 million on September 9th and another $83 million on September 23rd. In both cases, SLF transferred exactly the same amount to the Texas PAC the next day. The organization supporting Mr. Paxton reported that it had no other donors until the end of September.

Until now, many Republicans have been reluctant to devote resources to the Lone Star State’s expensive media market while competing beyond an already expanded Senate map. Mr. Musk effectively eliminated that tradeoff, providing enough funds to build a dedicated financial firewall around Paxton without forcing the party to draw resources from other battlegrounds.

For months, Democrats have worried that traditional big donors would be reluctant to write checks after the 2024 election cycle, when the drama of the presidential race was their top priority. The latest filings suggest the freeze is thawing, but a lot of money is still bypassing the Democratic National Committee.

facebook Co-founder Dustin Moskowitz and his wife, Kari Tuna, spent about $16 million on this summer’s midterm elections, while LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman poured $11.5 million into a super PAC supporting Talarico earlier this year, according to FEC filings.

The new mega-donor money gives Democrats another source of firepower they can quickly channel as needed in the final weeks.

Already, the Democratic Senate Majority PAC raised a record $151 million in the third quarter and ended September with $112 million in cash, even though its Republican counterpart raised significantly more money.

Every dollar spent fuels an election on track to break spending records.

AdImpact projects $11.6 billion will be spent on political advertising during the 2025-2026 election cycle, making 2026 the most expensive election cycle in history, surpassing both the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterm election cycle and the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential election cycle.

According to AdImpact, $3.8 billion in ads have already aired in the Congressional battle alone, more than $870 million more than the equivalent point in 2024. Senate races are also driving the surge, with the company predicting Senate ad spending will rise 48% from 2022 to $3.4 billion by the end of the cycle.

But as the amount increases, it can also become difficult for voters to trace its original source.

Thursday’s filing showed that millions of dollars are flowing into super PACs from nonprofits and other groups that don’t have to disclose their donors, leaving the original sources of some of this cycle’s biggest checks hidden.