President Donald Trump has built an unprecedented coalition government in preparation for his inauguration in 2024, rallying his support base with unusual support from some traditional Democratic groups, including Hispanics and young people. It was enough to sweep the battleground states and propel him to a second term as president.
The latest CNBC National Economic Survey shows that the coalition government is now seriously weakened.
Since the start of his second term, the president’s net approval rating among Latino voters has declined from -22 to -38, and among 18- to 34-year-olds from -28 to -53. Black respondents rose from -55 to -67.
Among all registered voters, his approval rating has fallen from -7 at the start of his term to -19 in the latest poll.
The decline in the president’s approval ratings also has a ripple effect on Republican supporters. The approval rating among self-proclaimed Trump supporters has fallen from net +85 in 2025 to net +65. The net approval rating has also turned negative in the south, going from +2 in 2025 to -20 in the latest survey.
The latest polling results show why Republicans face an uphill battle in next week’s midterm elections. Trump may not be on the ballot, but his presence will be felt.
Read the full survey results here.
Indeed, Republicans surveyed still have an 82% approval rating for the president, and 90% say they sympathize with the MAGA movement. However, Republicans are 10 percentage points less interested in the election than Democrats, meaning that in close races, the party that gains the support of voters has an advantage.
In a survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, 44% of respondents said their biggest concern if Republicans took control of Congress would be that it would allow President Trump to exceed his constitutional authority. By contrast, 28% say their biggest concern with a Democratic administration is that Democratic Socialist policies will be passed. As for which party is in control, registered voters are concerned that Congress won’t do enough to lower prices.
The survey was conducted October 14-18 and was jointly led by Democratic polling firm Hart Research Associates and Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. Allows for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Trump’s approval ratings have followed an unusual path as he skipped his term as president by four years. The president left office with an emphasis on economic issues, with an approval rating of 48% and a disapproval rating of 41%, high numbers for a president overwhelmed last year by the coronavirus pandemic.
However, there was no second honeymoon. In a CNBC poll in April 2025, President Trump’s economic approval ratings quickly declined. This may reflect the public’s immediate dissatisfaction with the tariff system and the resulting market turmoil. The president’s economic approval ratings remained negative throughout most of his first year in office.
However, with the outbreak of the Iran war, the bottom fell. By April 2026, the president’s net economic approval rating reached its highest level last seen during the Joe Biden presidency, when the country faced high inflation and rising unemployment amid the aftermath of the pandemic.
In the first quarter of this year, President Trump’s net economic approval rating fell by 10 points to -21. In the latest survey, it has fallen to -31. President Barack Obama’s economic disapproval rating rose to 65%, the highest of any president measured by CNBC, and one point ahead of Biden’s worst result. Polls show growing disapproval of President Trump’s handling of inflation. At the same time, the shootings of Americans by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents began to dominate headlines, and support for one of the president’s major policy initiatives began to erode.
This quarter’s poll appeared to highlight growing dissatisfaction on a number of issues, from immigration to the economy, among those who had supported the president in unusual numbers in 2024, with economic and overall support dropping sharply among Latinos, young people and those with incomes between $50,000 and $75,000.
Most ominously for the president, Republicans’ views on the economic outlook fell by 22 points. Although still a net positive, economic optimism for Republicans is at its lowest level since Biden.
This optimistic view of the economy doesn’t automatically translate into voting Democratic. The survey found support for Democratic control of Congress at 7 points, up 3 points from the July survey. As Republicans become more pessimistic about the economy, the percentage who want a Republican-led Congress also rose from 85% in July to 87% in October.
The blue-collar workers show how the president has held his ground even as economic concerns grow. Their net economic approval rating for the president has fallen 22 points since the start of Trump’s term to -15. But the president’s overall approval rating remained at +6, a decline of only 4 points. They still favor the Republican-controlled Congress by 21 points, but that’s down from 33 points in July.
In the days and weeks leading up to the election, the president toured red states, a sign of concern about the base’s enthusiasm. But it also creates the possibility for him to strengthen and draw on his base to thwart potential Democratic gains.
The study shows that additional votes from the coalition that propelled Mr. Trump to the White House in 2024 could reach Republican congressional candidates in 2026.
