Israeli voters on Tuesday gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a sharp rebuke in the national election, with his opponents on track to win a solid majority in the next parliament, exit polls showed.
Even if the exit poll results are confirmed, the opposition may find it difficult to form a government to replace Prime Minister Netanyahu. The easiest path would be for his main rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, to align with an Arab-led party, but that could prove politically difficult and alienate other opposition forces.
Exit polls released by Israel’s main television channel showed Netanyahu’s camp won 50 seats, with the opposition winning 52-53 and Arab parties winning 17-18. That would set the stage for weeks of political maneuvering until a prime minister is declared or fresh elections are called.
Eisenkot said the exit polls showed a “lack of confidence” in the current prime minister. Arab voters celebrated the exit polls, but supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right parties aligned with him expressed disappointment.
Like all surveys, exit polls contain potential errors. Preliminary results are expected to be announced within hours. Final results are expected to be announced in the coming days and may differ from exit polls.
Without a decisive result, Israel will be mired in a political deadlock after the first national elections since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.
The election campaign was widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s nearly continuous 17-year rule, and Israelis were deeply divided on many issues even before the worst attack in Israel’s history. The resulting wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, combined with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have sparked global outrage, strained relations with Israel’s closest allies and fueled a rise in anti-Semitism.
The election is widely seen among Israelis as a battle over the character of the state, pitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies against forces seeking to maintain its liberal, secular foundations.
The process of coalition building begins
More than 74% of voters had cast their votes by 8pm, according to the Central Election Commission, with turnout at the time the highest in decades and 8 percentage points higher than the previous election in 2022. More than 7 million people were eligible to vote, with tens of thousands reportedly voting from overseas.
The Israeli president is tasked with asking the party leaders with the best prospects of forming a government (usually the party with the most seats) to form a coalition.
If no one can do so, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 due to a similar impasse.
No single party has ever won a majority in the country’s 120-member parliament, forcing political leaders to form coalitions. A minority government is possible, but must rely on support or cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.
Arab voter turnout has a significant influence on political parties
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously warned that the Arab parties that will determine the outcome of the election have “really massive support” and are heading to the polls in “unprecedented numbers”.
In another sign of concern, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party petitioned to extend voting hours beyond 10 p.m., but the election commission ruled against it, finding there was no valid reason. Eisenkot rejected the extension and called on voters to ignore Netanyahu’s “intimidation tactics.”
Israel’s Arab-led parties could emerge as kingmakers if other parties agree to cooperate.
“Our votes will change the government,” Mansour Abbas, leader of the Islamist Ra’am party, said while voting was still taking place. Arabs in Israel make up about 20% of the population.
Israel’s far-right Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, known for mocking Palestinian detainees and saying some Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are “not even human beings”, warned that if Prime Minister Netanyahu and his allies do not win, “there will be a Mansour Abbas government.”
Emotions run high among some voters
Emotions ran high among some voters. In Kiryat Shmona, Netanyahu’s stronghold near the border with Lebanon, a man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot.
The election will be Israel’s first national referendum since the October 7 attack that sparked the Gaza war and related conflicts. In Tel Aviv, families of those killed and former hostages held a moment of silence on October 7. “Let’s not forget all those who have lost their voices,” said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was murdered.
Some 330,000 young Israelis will be able to vote for the first time, many of them facing mandatory military service in the shadow of war.
Mr. Eisenkot began his day by visiting the communities attacked on October 7th. “If anyone in the government has any responsibility, they will start their morning here,” he said in a community near Gaza.
Amid cheering crowds, Eisenkot called on all Israelis to vote to remove “the worst government in Israel’s history.” He noted that victory was not certain, adding: “We are entering perhaps the most important day since the founding of our nation.”
There were scattered allegations of irregularities and problems at polling stations, but Dean Rivne, acting executive director of the Electoral Commission, said the number of complaints was far lower than in previous elections.
Security, conscription and integrity are paramount
Israel has become increasingly isolated over its actions in Gaza and the West Bank. American public support plummeted, and European and other partner countries imposed sanctions on Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, charges he denies.
Lingering tensions with Iran are also having an impact on the election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stepped up his threats ahead of the vote, warning that Tehran would face a “catastrophic blow” if it attacked Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters see him as a steady hand and a consummate politician who led Israel through the country’s darkest moments and into a war of salvation. They believe he is defending Israel’s security and Jewish identity in the face of international pressure and domestic liberal elites.
His critics see him as a polarizing leader beset by an ongoing corruption trial and prolonging the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons. They claim he is undermining Israel’s independent judiciary and undermining its democratic foundations. And they accuse him of abetting a system that allowed ultra-Orthodox Jews to avoid military draft.
“The current government is pushing the country into a corner,” voter Angela Bengur said in Jerusalem.
Mr. Eisenkot is seen by his supporters as a capable leader with strong security credentials and, with a powerful governing partner, could act as a bulwark against creeping illiberalism. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, and as someone who has been personally touched by the conflict, his supporters believe he deeply feels the pain that still lingers in Israel.
The parties likely to support Mr. Eisenkot have vowed to improve Israel’s international standing while strengthening judicial independence and tackle the draft of ultra-Orthodox men.
Nisso Sitrito, a Jaffa voter, said the election was about “who will serve and who will avoid serving – who will actively participate in building this country and who will not.”
