Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) during the signing ceremony in Beijing, China on May 20, 2026.
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Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC that Russia and China could become more aggressive over the next two years if they conclude that President Donald Trump is politically weakened and headed for “death” after Democrats gain a majority in both houses of Congress.
Kagan said on “Squawk Box Asia” that the war with Iran has revealed how Washington has “proved to be quite militarily incompetent” in terms of capabilities that are critical to Asia.
“Everyone can see how depleted the stocks of interceptor missiles and missiles that are critical to the Asian theater are,” he said.
The conflict is estimated to have also depleted two-thirds of U.S. missile defense interceptors since June 2025, primarily due to efforts to protect Israel from Iranian attack, according to a Congressional Budget Office report. This could leave the US with limited inventories for several years.
Kagan said the deployment of three U.S. aircraft carriers to the Middle East could reduce the available U.S. naval presence in Asia and give China more room to act aggressively in the region.
“I think Mr. Trump’s only interest at this point is to get an economic deal with China. I don’t think he has any real interest in confronting China, but that would make China even more aggressive,” he said.
President Trump approved an arms package worth $11 billion for Taiwan in December, but later withheld a second package worth about $14 billion, calling it a “bargaining chip” in talks with China.
China claims autonomous Taiwan as its own territory. Although the U.S. government does not have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, U.S. law requires it to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
Former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, but stressed that this did not mean that Xi had decided to launch an invasion that year, or even that he had decided to launch an invasion at all.
Kagan’s comments came as the United States, China and Russia discuss the possibility of a trilateral summit between President Trump, President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin at the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday that the Chinese government was “in touch with relevant parties regarding the meeting between the three heads of state”, although no agenda had been announced.
Putin had reportedly floated the idea of holding a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi in October to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present.
“If it’s clear that Donald Trump is on the way out and the United States may be returning to normal, and I don’t want to overstate it, both countries, Russia and China, may feel it’s time to move within the next two years,” Kagan said.
