Heading into Sunday’s clash with Manchester City, manager Liam Rosenior was keen to point out that Chelsea sit fourth in the Premier League since he took over as head coach.
He might be better off not checking that ranking for now.
A three-goal comeback at Stamford Bridge saw them drop five places to ninth under Rosenior. They have now lost three consecutive games without scoring in the Premier League, and the pressure on their head coach is increasing.
This is their fifth defeat in six games in all competitions, taking into account the heartbreaking 8-2 aggregate defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League last 16. Will Chelsea regress under Rosenior as they face an uphill battle to secure a top-five finish?
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Gary Neville gives verdict on Chelsea’s leadership issues
Results showed little progress
His tenure started on a positive note, with Chelsea winning their first four Premier League games against Brentford, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolves. But since then, they’ve only won one of the seven.
The unbeaten start to the Premier League ended against Arsenal on 1 March, with the Gunners defeating Arsenal in both games in the Carabao Cup semi-final. The gulf between Chelsea and the elite has been made to look even wider with PSG and Manchester City.
Sky Sports’ Paul Merson said: “Roseniol started well and did well, but when Chelsea play against the big boys they get crushed.”
Rosenior’s defense won impressive away games against Napoli and Aston Villa. But following Manchester City’s defeat, it’s easy to see why supporters are feeling pessimistic ahead of Saturday’s clash with Manchester United.
Comparison of Chelsea’s results before and after Rosenior took over as manager
After taking over from Strasbourg, Rosenior was tasked with getting Chelsea back on track after Enzo Maresca’s reign ended in a storm, but three months later his results are surprisingly similar.
To date, Chelsea have averaged 1.54 points per game in the Premier League. This is a slight increase on the 1.48 per game he played before this season, so overall he hasn’t taken a step back in terms of results, but it is still the third lowest for a Chelsea manager since 2004.
They are also far short of the numbers needed to secure Champions League qualification. If Chelsea continue at the same pace for the remaining games, they will finish with 57 points, just five points higher than fifth-placed Liverpool’s current points total.
Worryingly, their trajectory of form suggests that even that could be surpassed unless the under-attack head coach can oversee a dramatically improved performance over the coming week.
inherited problems
In his press conference after Sunday’s defeat, Rosenior reminded that even Josep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp needed a year to “sort things out” at Manchester City and Liverpool.
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Sky Sports News’ Kabe Solhekor details how much pressure Rosenior is under as tensions rise between fans
The 41-year-old was appointed midway through the season under difficult circumstances and has only played 11 games in the Premier League.
He cannot be held responsible for a call-up that left a team lacking experience and leadership. He will also have to deal with the impact of their massive football run in last summer’s Club World Cup.
Chelsea have played more games than any other team in the Premier League over the past two seasons.
But fans still have the right to expect more.
Chelsea’s mental fragility is nothing new. In the first half of the season, they lost 15 points under Maresca. However, this problem has only become more pronounced under Rosenior’s administration.
Their Premier League form has not recovered from February, when they surrendered two-goal and one-goal leads in back-to-back games against Leeds and Burnley. Sunday’s loss to Manchester City was followed by similar defeats against PSG and Everton.
Manager Rosenior has not been able to fully understand Chelsea’s indiscipline problem. Red cards for Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto in back-to-back games against Burnley and Arsenal proved costly.
Chelsea have received more cards than any other team since Rosenior first took charge of the Premier League in January.
The head coach did not take responsibility for the comments that led to Enzo Fernandes’ two-game internal suspension. But this is just one example of a player stepping out of line.
Are you encouraged by basic numbers?
With four points adrift of Liverpool and six Premier League games remaining, Chelsea’s prospects do not look bright when it comes to securing the all-important Champions League title. Missing out on that award could be bad news for Rosenior.
Chelsea may soon have to start reassessing their Premier League standings after Sunday’s second-half collapse against Manchester City. But the underlying numbers offer some encouragement for Rosenior.
Although their recent results have been damaging, Chelsea’s overall performance in the Premier League under Rosenior is far better than it was earlier in the campaign, based on expected goals.
In fact, Chelsea’s expected net goals in Rosseniol’s first three months as manager is the second-highest of any Premier League side, behind leaders Arsenal.
This expected goal difference is considered one of the strongest indicators of a team’s future performance.
Chelsea’s total shows they have created far better chances than they conceded, placing them above Manchester City and Liverpool, suggesting their performance since the change of head coach has been better than the results would suggest.
The image below shows Chelsea’s moving averages of expected goals and expected goals vs. goals, highlighting Rosenior’s positive impact in the context of the season. However, since the 1-0 loss to Newcastle, the numbers have taken a turn for the worse.
Of course, the result is what matters most, especially at this point in the season with so much at stake. And after a crushing defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League and three consecutive Premier League defeats without a goal, Rossenyol has put his work on hold to convince Chelsea fans that he is the man to take the club forward.
