Many ridiculed David Moyes when he returned to Everton 11 and a half years after leaving the club.
On the surface, this appeared to be a move by a club desperate to remain in the Premier League, turning to nostalgia to generate some short-term positivity.
Less than 18 months later, the Toffees had received points deductions and were in financial despair. When the Scots returned to Goodison Park they were one point above the relegation zone. They now live in a new home and have new ambitions ahead of the first Hill Dickinson Merseyside Derby, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports.
Any suggestion of European football, let alone Champions League ambitions, would have been laughed at if the prodigal son walked back through the door. Everton have drifted further and further away from qualification since Moyes first left.
Who would have thought that just bringing back the man who gave them the latest taste of continental elite competition 20 years ago would just give them a whiff of competition? But that may be to Moïse’s detriment. After all, he brought West Ham their only European title. But perhaps it wasn’t such a difficult task.
A win against arch-rivals Liverpool on Sunday would take them two points clear of fifth place, which would ensure a return to the Champions League.
Everton sit seventh in the Premier League table since Moyes returned to Merseyside, above Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham, all of whom have played or currently qualify for the Champions League.
These are also the clubs whose spending in the last two transfer windows has engulfed Everton. All three cost at least £100 million more than the Toffees, but that didn’t stop Moyes from using what was at his disposal to transform them from relegation candidates to European prospects.
Key to that transformation is what has long been a weak link in his arsenal, at least since leaving Manchester United in 2014. It’s away form.
Moyes showed significant improvement in Everton’s away match
Since Moyes returned to Everton, his side have been one of the best-performing teams away from home. Only Arsenal and Manchester City picked up more points on the trip, with Everton averaging 1.68 points per game (ppg) on the trip.
The only period in which Moyes did better away than at home was at Manchester United. In both seasons with Real Sociedad, Sunderland and West Ham, he either failed to achieve or only scored one goal.
Given that goals are not their strong point, with Keenan Dewsbury-Hall leading the way with seven goals this season, Moyes has tried to make his team hard to break down. As a result, we ended up taking points away from some of the bigger stadiums. Old Trafford, St James’s Park and Villa Park have all been left stunned.
So Moyes and Everton find themselves in a race to Europe out of thin air. But it is home form that they need to worry about ahead of the first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
We still need to work on our home form for the final push towards Europe.
We had great results on the road, but domestically it’s a different story. They have won just six Premier League games in front of Everton supporters. This puts them in 14th place at home.
Some may argue that this is simply a problem in the new home base. Moyes himself is also on record as saying, “Looking back, I think all the teams that moved to new stadiums have struggled.”
Perhaps the new arena is influencing the atmosphere that made Goodison Park such a difficult place to get to. Stadiums are more open, so the voices of those in the stands carry less weight. As a result, the pitch may feel less suffocating for opposing players.
However, statistics show that Everton play completely differently in front of their supporters, which is to their detriment. From now on, the Toffees will be much more direct away from home, attempting an additional 107 long passes. Their average possession rate was also 39.7%, compared to Hill Dickinson’s 47.6%.
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But it’s not on offense that his style of play seems to be affected. At home, he has scored 21 goals with an xG of 20.46. Their away record is 19 goals from an xG of 22.82.
However, playing with more possession leaves Everton more vulnerable defensively. They only conceded one extra goal at home compared to away, but the statistics suggest that was a blessing in disguise, as the expected number of goals conceded was nearly four points worse at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
By possessing more of the ball, Everton will be able to lose possession in dangerous areas and be exposed to opportunities for opponents to take advantage. Playing more directly away allows you to win the ball more efficiently from your own box, giving you more time to set up when your opponent advances.
A common refrain during run-ins is that teams must treat every game like a cup final. For Moyes and Everton, that memo might have to be revised a bit. Treat every game like an away game, no matter where you’re playing. Let’s start with Sunday’s derby against Liverpool.
There is then every chance that Moyes could do something unthinkable at the start of the campaign and return European football to the blue half of Merseyside.
Watch Everton v Liverpool live on Sky Sports Main Event from 1pm on Super Sunday.
