Aston Villa have doubts about their place in the Champions League, but when they take on Liverpool live on Sky Sports on Friday night, both teams could have a huge impact on the fate of other teams in next season’s European race.
Villa and Liverpool are level on points, and if they finish in the top five they will qualify for the Champions League. However, their respective cushions over their nearest challengers are likely to be further reduced to one point by the end of the weekend, having suffered a one-win contingency in their last six combined.
From Villa’s point of view, the club, which sat three points adrift at the top just before the start of the year, is now looking increasingly likely to miss out on a top-five spot altogether, with tough competition against two of the four teams ahead of them on Friday against Liverpool and a final game against Manchester City on the final day.
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Aston Villa continued their poor form last weekend, finishing in a draw with relegated Burnley.
However, they have a second chance to qualify and will be at ease regardless of the league result if they win Wednesday’s Europa League final against Freiburg.
However, the likes of Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford, who are the most likely to finish in the top six according to Opta, also have a strong interest in Villa’s success.
Should Villa return from Istanbul with the Europa League trophy next week and finish fifth, only then the spots reserved for them will be passed on to the team finishing sixth.
That would open the door for one of the trio, none of whom have played Champions League football or, in the case of Bournemouth and Brentford, European football.
They will also be keen to see if Villa’s poor run of form continues and if one of them could push them into the top five and guarantee Champions League football.
However, if Villa win the Europa League and move past Liverpool into fourth place, which would be a more realistic proposition if they beat Liverpool on Friday Night Football, only the top five teams in the Premier League would qualify for the Champions League.
here we go again?
Aston Villa would have already qualified for the Champions League this season had it not been for last season’s controversial final-day defeat to Manchester United.
Emery’s side had Morgan Rodgers’ opening goal in that match ruled out as having kicked the ball out of Altai Baindir’s hands, but VAR did not override it as the referee’s whistle had already blown.
United scored two goals in the closing stages of the game, leaving Villa in 6th place, just behind Newcastle in 5th place on goal difference, sealing their place at the top of the European competition.
Will I get stung by the post again? By mid-April, Villa were 10 points clear of the top five and looked certain to qualify for the Champions League in the league standings, but their recent form has meant that their appearance on Friday Night Football is no longer a certainty.
The final day’s challenge?
Depending on what happens at Villa on Friday and Istanbul next week, Champions League hopefuls Brentford and Brighton could prefer to lose on the final day.
Brentford’s last game is against Liverpool. If Brentford were sixth at that point and Villa were Europa League champions, a win for Liverpool could ensure a fifth place finish.
Brighton are home to Manchester United, who could go into the final day in sixth place, and if United allow Villa and Liverpool to close the gap, the Seagulls would also benefit from United retaining their place above Villa in the table.
