Tennessee is in the midst of an unexpectedly close special election, with U.S. Democrats hoping to flip the reliably conservative 7th Congressional District.
Voters in the southern state headed to the polls Tuesday to choose a successor to Republican Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to pursue a career in the private sector.
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His vacant U.S. House seat paves the way for a surprisingly competitive offseason campaign and is seen by Democrats as a possible sign of growing dissatisfaction with Republican President Donald Trump ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
The race is between Trump-backed candidate Matt Van Epps, a former state commissioner, and Democratic state Rep. Aftin Behn.
“To all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, please vote for the phenomenal candidate and MAGA warrior Matt Van Epps!” President Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday.
“You can win this election, Matt, which I fully and completely support.”
Other national figures are also joining the race, including progressive congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Al Gore, who have rallied on Behn’s behalf.
“The very fact that this race is happening shows that we, including Tennessee, are in a time where anything can happen and miracles can happen,” Ocasio-Cortez said, praising Behn’s “guts.”
“Now we have this race within striking distance, or what we call the margin of effort.”
Local races attracting national attention
The battle for control of Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District begins less than a year before the United States’ pivotal midterm elections in November 2026.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs in the midterm elections. Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both the chamber and the U.S. Senate.
Given how small the margin is, both Democrats and Republicans are eager to win every seat possible.
In August, for example, the right-wing stronghold of Texas passed a bill to redraw the state’s House districts to give Republican politicians five more seats in the midterm elections.
The redistricting push spurred by President Trump has inspired other states to launch similar efforts. In Democratic-leaning California, for example, voters in November approved a voting plan that redraws the state’s congressional maps to give Democrats five more seats, effectively nullifying Texas’ efforts.
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District was not included in this year’s partisan redistricting push. But in 2022, the Republican-controlled state Legislature redrawn the congressional map to better favor Republicans.
The 2022 map divides Nashville, a Democratic-leaning city, into three separate congressional districts, thereby weakening the power of Democratic voters. The 7th Congressional District is one of the districts that currently represents part of Nashville.
Previously, the district was considered a safe Republican district. But Mr. Behn is trailing Mr. Van Epps by a narrow margin in most polls.
In the Emerson College poll, Van Epps had an approval rating of 48%, compared to 46% for her. An additional 5% of those surveyed remained undecided.
A victory for Mr. Behn would further narrow the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Given that both candidates are close in the polls, money from national groups is flowing into the race.
MAGA Inc., a super PAC named after President Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, has poured $1 million into the campaign, its first contribution since the 2024 presidential election season. The left-leaning House Majority PAC also spent $1 million supporting Behn.
Republicans hope to bounce back from a series of painful losses to Democrats in November’s off-year elections.
In New Jersey, for example, Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated a Trump-backed candidate to win the governor’s seat, and fellow Democrat Abigail Spanberger similarly won the Virginia gubernatorial race.
Political analysts believe Tennessee’s close race could create an increasingly hostile political climate for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Trump won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in 2024 by a 22-point margin.
But a recent Gallup poll showed Trump’s popularity has fallen to the lowest level of his second term, with just 36% of voters saying they approve of his efforts. The disapproval rate also reached a new high, with 60% saying they did not support it.
Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, Republican leaders called on their supporters to make their voices heard at the polls.
“Special elections are strange animals, anything can happen, and when you’re in a red district, people sometimes assume that Republicans, conservatives, are going to win,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters.
“You can’t assume that. Anything can happen. So we encourage everyone to get out there and make it happen.”
