Israel is considering a two-week cease-fire announced by US President Donald Trump on Tuesday night in its war with Iran, making it appear weakened in the eyes of its adversaries and critics. Its arch-enemy, Iran, is still alive and well. Israel’s defense missile stocks are depleted and the prime minister faces a political backlash.
Following news of the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issued a statement in English saying he supported the U.S. decision and asserted that “Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile, or terrorist threat to the United States, Israel, Iran’s Arab neighbors, or the world.”
Recommended stories
list of 4 itemsend of list
However, there was a caveat. Mediator Pakistan has also announced a halt to Israeli attacks on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, but Prime Minister Netanyahu added that he did not believe the ceasefire would extend to Israel’s war against Lebanon, adding that, at least for now, the United States appeared willing to allow the war to continue on the condition of peace talks with Iran.
Reacting to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s announcement, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, who has strongly supported Israel’s offensive against its regional rival Iran, called the ceasefire one of the biggest “political disasters” in our country’s history. He said Israel was not even part of the negotiations, adding that despite military successes, the prime minister “failed politically, failed strategically and failed to achieve any of the goals he set for himself” and that it would take years to repair the damage done to the country by his “arrogance”.
Others immediately joined in the bashing. “I was not surprised that the announcement was in English,” said Ofer Kashif of the left-wing Hadash party. “Prime Minister Netanyahu has no interest in talking to the Israeli people. He rarely and almost never goes into the[TV and radio]studios,” he said of the prime minister, who waited two weeks after the war with Iran began before explaining his war objectives to the Israeli people in detail in a televised address.
“He knows, probably rightly, that those who support him will do so anyway, and those who oppose him will continue to do so. So when he speaks, it is to the international media and to reassure his base,” Kashif said.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s war objectives
These war objectives were, as Prime Minister Netanyahu said, the latest iteration of Israel’s long-standing strategic goals: to stop “Iran’s development of nuclear weapons” and to create “an environment in which the Iranian people can eliminate their brutal tyranny.” Indeed, since the 1990s, Prime Minister Netanyahu has argued that Iran’s development of nuclear weapons is imminent.
But none of those goals have been achieved, despite significant military successes in attacks on Iran over the past 40 days.
“None of the original objectives of the war have been achieved and Israelis are deeply disappointed in the ceasefire,” said Aaron Bregman, senior professor of war studies at King’s College London, who recently returned from Israel. “The Iranian regime is still in existence, its ballistic missile program could be rebuilt very quickly, and it still has 440 kg of enriched uranium at 60 percent purity, the equivalent of 10 bombs.”
In fact, analysts say that, counterintuitively, Iran has become stronger as a result, according to many observers, despite significant military defeats, including the loss of control of its airspace, the assassinations of many of Iran’s leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war, and the assassinations of many of Iran’s key military figures.
“Israel and the United States gained a lot tactically. We won militarily, but strategically Iran is the clear winner,” Bregman said.
Strategic failure?
The key to victory was not only the Iranian government’s survival in the face of relentless military attacks from Israel and the United States, but also the decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key energy arteries and, according to current negotiations, safe passage of international shipping under the full control of Iran and its neighbor Oman.
Iran has struggled under tougher U.S. sanctions since President Trump, encouraged by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, unilaterally withdrew from an international agreement restricting its nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief in 2018. But many observers now expect Iran to continue imposing new tariffs on ships for safe passage through the strait. Also supporting Iran’s economy is President Trump’s promise of future sanctions and tariff relief as part of the ceasefire agreement, posted on Truth Social on Wednesday.
“Iran’s decision to blockade Hormuz threw President Trump off balance and he never recovered,” Bregman said. “Future historians will say this Iranian decision was the turning point in the war.”
Some observers say Israel’s actions during the war also help strengthen the Iranian government. Some rebel centers have been destroyed in Israeli attacks, including Tehran’s Sharif University, which was the epicenter of anti-government protests in January. Donald Trump’s 11th-hour threat to wipe out Iranian civilization also allowed the Iranian government to release footage of its people rallying to form a human chain around critical infrastructure.
“Please understand, I despise the Iranian regime. It is murderous,” Kashif told Al Jazeera on Wednesday. “But we (Hadash) have been warning since our second place that we have no right or ability to change it. Instead, we have strengthened our support for that regime at the expense of the opposition,” he said of reports of a surge in support for the Iranian government in the face of US and Israeli attacks.
He said Israel and the United States “gave Iran operational control of the Strait of Hormuz, which had never been in question, and by carrying out the first attack while negotiations were ongoing, we sent a signal to the whole world that we cannot trust the United States and Israel.”
“Israel has achieved nothing tangible.”
Additionally, Israel has been attacking southern and eastern Lebanon, claiming to be targeting Hezbollah strongholds. It remains to be seen whether these attacks will continue.
For now, Israel has no plans to attend peace talks in Pakistan on Friday. But Bregman said freedom to continue attacking Lebanon could be determined by the United States and Tehran’s Hezbollah allies.
“Assuming the ceasefire lasts beyond a two-week period, Israel has achieved almost nothing tangible,” former Israeli ambassador and New York consul general Alon Pincus told Al Jazeera about the war against Iran. “Iran has upended strategic asymmetries by attacking Arab Gulf states and, crucially, closing the Strait of Hormuz with little pushback from China. Since all of the promises Prime Minister Netanyahu made to President Trump have fallen apart, Israel is increasingly perceived as a destabilizing force, perhaps straining relations with the United States,” he said, referring to Israel’s commitment to rapid regime change in Iran.
Mr. Kashif put it more simply: “It’s crazy.”
