Monterrey, Mexico – In July 2024, after the arrest of cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada in Texas, activist María Isabel Cruz and her colleagues began to notice an alarming trend.
Zambada was a co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal networks. U.S. authorities hailed his arrest as a “direct attack” on the campaign to dismantle the cartel.
But for Cruz and her fellow activists from Sabuesos Guerreras, an organization that searches for missing people in Culiacán, Sinaloa, it marked the beginning of a gradual increase in the number of missing persons.
On September 9th, the trend accelerated even further. A power struggle erupted within the Sinaloa Cartel, and reports of murders, murders, and missing persons increased rapidly.
The number of homicides in Sinaloa rose from 44 in August to 142 in September. The wave of violence continued into the following year. In 2025, 1,657 people died.
Meanwhile, Sabesos Guerreras estimates that the number of missing people since July 2024 has reached 5,800, but this is likely an underestimate.
For Cruz, whose own son went missing in 2017, the spike in deaths and disappearances raises questions about attacking only cartel leaders.
“I don’t know if there’s really a strategy,” Cruz said. “They are fighting the leaders, but everything at the bottom remains and it is the ordinary people who pay the price.”
December marks 20 years since Mexico declared a “war on drugs” by sending thousands of troops to confront cartels.
Meanwhile, four successive governments have struggled to dismantle Mexico’s criminal organizations. Nevertheless, the “kingpin strategy” of targeting and eliminating cartel leadership remains the most likely approach.
But critics are skeptical about the strategy’s long-term effectiveness. “What’s the point in fighting the leaders if the roots remain?” Cruz asked.
Bernardo León Olea, a former security commissioner in Morelia, Michoacan state, argues that the “kingpin” approach leads to divisions within cartels and creates more violence as factions vie for power. He also questioned the benefits to civilians.
“The extortion payments haven’t stopped. Drugs are still being sold near my home. Crime and corruption are still happening,” Leon explained. “Because it’s not about dismantling criminal organizations.”
