Israel found itself embroiled in two semi-frozen conflicts in Lebanon and Iran. But the outcome of these battles is likely to be decided by the United States and President Donald Trump, rather than by Israel’s own political leaders, Israeli analysts told Al Jazeera.
Israel is not included, as US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Pakistan for another round of talks with Iran. And President Trump announced Thursday that he would extend the ceasefire in Lebanon by three weeks. Of course, Israel has repeatedly violated that ceasefire, but analysts emphasize that President Trump continues to have more influence over events than Israel’s partners.
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This is despite Israeli leaders, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, repeatedly calling Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah an existential threat. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had long called for a war like the one he ultimately provoked against the United States and Iran in late February.
But the outcome of that war now appears to be out of his control. And observers say this is a growing concern for Israelis, who have been promised by Netanyahu “an end to the threat posed by Iran’s Ayatollah regime” and the eventual “disarmament” of Hezbollah.
“While Netanyahu’s attempts to steer the United States on both Iran and Lebanon were arrogant and opportunistic, it is not all that surprising that Netanyahu would attempt this either,” said former Israeli government advisor Daniel Levy, who compared the evidence to the undoubted support the United States provided to the Israeli government during the genocidal war in Gaza.
“This is partly because Prime Minister Netanyahu is starting to believe his own hype, not only in terms of what Israel can accomplish with Washington, but also in terms of what Israel and the United States can accomplish together in terms of regional realignment, and that hasn’t happened,” said Levy, now a prominent critic of Israel. “But Prime Minister Netanyahu sees an opportunity in this administration, which is so hollow in terms of interagency processes, that he can get the United States to do things that Israel couldn’t do before.”
Israelis still want war
President Trump’s twin ceasefire announcements in Iran and Lebanon have exposed Prime Minister Netanyahu, the main cheerleader in both conflicts, to a domestic political crisis, with both Hezbollah and Iran still in existence despite their losses.
Days before President Trump announced a ceasefire in Lebanon, an Israel Democracy Institute poll showed that Jewish Israeli respondents overwhelmingly supported continuing the conflict, even if it led to friction with the United States.
A cease-fire with Iran has also proven unpopular within Israel, with two-thirds of Israelis opposed to halting operations, according to a poll by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“On the other hand, I think Israelis, especially Israeli Jews, tend to put both countries[Iran and Lebanon]in a broader frame of ‘all enemies are against us,'” Dalia Scheindlin, an American Israeli political consultant, pollster and journalist, told Al Jazeera. “We live in a region with a sea of enemies who are trying to destroy Israel in every possible way. So it’s part of the broader self-image that Israelis have.”
She said public confidence in the Israeli government’s ability to make decisions is low due to uncertainty about the future determined by an erratic US president.
“The United States is a much stronger partner,” Scheindlin said. “So there is an understanding that Washington ultimately shapes the course of events. Israel has influence and a voice, but not the final say. That feeling is becoming an increasingly common theme at this point.”
Critics of Prime Minister Netanyahu
After President Trump first announced a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel’s former chief of staff and leader of the centrist Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot, said it was a continuation of the ceasefire “imposed” on Israel over the past two and a half years.
While critics will note that the United States has done little to rein in Israel and often actively supports attacks on Israel, Eisenkot was more focused on Netanyahu’s inability to “translate military achievements into diplomatic gains.”
Opposition leader Yair Lapid was similarly critical, writing on social media: “Not for the first time, all the promises of this government have fallen apart against reality.”
Aron Pincus, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, said of the predicament facing Prime Minister Netanyahu: “As it stands, the (Iranian) regime is still in place, the uranium is still in the country, the Revolutionary Guards are in a stronger position than ever, and President Trump wants them out.” “That would mean a strategic defeat for Israel, no matter what its military achievements.
“I don’t know if Trump really cares what happens to Netanyahu,” Pincus added, noting that a visible rift between the two could even be politically helpful to the US president after reports suggesting Netanyahu had induced Trump into war. “He (Trump) wants a deal with Iran, and I think he can live with it even if Israel is the loser.”
