A new map featuring two red lines stretching across the Strait of Hormuz is the latest symbol of the escalating war of attrition between Iran and the United States.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) released a map on Monday showing the expansion of its maritime control, including long stretches of the United Arab Emirates’ coastline. In the west, a line runs from the western tip of Qeshm Island in Iran to the emirate of Umm Al Quwain in the UAE, and in the east, a second line connects Mount Mobarak in Iran to Fujairah in the UAE.
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The announcement came after US President Donald Trump launched new efforts in a campaign dubbed “Project Freedom” to open up key energy chokepoints that have been largely closed since the US-Israel war against Iran began on February 28.
In a further escalation, the UAE on Monday reported drone and missile attacks, including one that caused a fire at a major energy hub in Fujairah, the first such incident in the Gulf state since the April 8 ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The UAE blamed Iran for the attack. The Iranian government has not officially acknowledged the attack, but on Tuesday acknowledged that Iran was behind it but said the United States and its actions in the region were responsible.
“The continuation of the current situation is intolerable for the United States, even though it has not yet begun,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Berger Ghalibaf said in a social media post on Tuesday.
But behind the surface confidence, analysts say, Iran is increasingly relying on sea control of the Strait of Hormuz to gain significant leverage in its ongoing war with the United States and Israel, only formally suspended under a cease-fire.
And they say that influence is not one that Iran can easily give up.
“Strategic Equalizer”
By interfering with maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a passageway for about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and large quantities of liquefied natural gas and fertilizer, Iran has been able to impose economic costs not only on the United States but on countries around the world. Experts say this gives negotiating gravity to Iran as it seeks to counter U.S. demands, including the U.S. demand that Tehran effectively halt its nuclear program.
The resulting ripple effects affected energy markets, shipping and global supply chains, with tanker traffic dropping from an average of 129 flights in February to a virtual standstill.
Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, a professor of Middle East economics at the Center for Near Middle East Studies (CNMS) at Marburg University, described Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz as “strategic equalization.”
“This allows Iran to show that its pressure on Iran is not limited to Iran,” Farzanegan, who is also a researcher at the Hamburg Institute for Advanced Study (HIAS), told Al Jazeera.
“Iran cannot symmetrically match U.S. naval and air power, but it does have geography on its side,” he continued. “Hormuz is a small, crowded, and economically important place. In such a space, Iran does not need a major conflict to impose costs. Threats from mines, missiles, drones, high-speed ships, electronic disruption, and selective targeting could make passage dangerous even without complete closure.”
In effect, Iran does not need to defeat the US Navy to change the economic calculus of war.
“All that is needed is for insurers, shippers, and energy traders to understand that military pressure on Iran has costs on global markets. That uncertainty alone could drive up oil and LNG prices, increase transportation costs, and potentially spill over into inflation, food security, and financial markets,” Farzanegan said.
Iran’s main demand, which is to block the passage of oil tankers and LNG carriers, can be achieved with almost any explosive device. Throughout the conflict, Iran has shown that it has sophisticated weaponry, including unidirectional attack drones, fast attack craft equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles, rocket launchers, and even anti-tank guided missiles that can be launched in large numbers from underground facilities along the coast.
But Iran’s turmoil comes at a high price. The United States has imposed a naval blockade of all Iranian ports and shipping since April 13, limiting Iran’s ability to export oil, import essential goods, and maintain foreign currency inflows. Prices have soared and millions of jobs have been lost or suspended due to a near-total internet shutdown imposed by authorities in Tehran.
“Although it is a risky asset, Hormuz is probably Iran’s key leverage point at this stage,” Farzanegan said. “What gives Iran bargaining power is precisely because its full use would be to the detriment of everyone.”
Regional power balance
Tensions appeared to be rising in the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran on Tuesday after the UAE accused Iran of attacking the country’s Fujairah refinery, which exports more than 1.7 million barrels of crude oil and refined fuel a day, about 1.7% of global daily demand.
Monday’s attack came after the U.S. military said two U.S. commercial ships had passed through the strait with support from a Navy guided-missile destroyer. Despite shipping company Maersk confirming that the US-flagged Alliance Fairfax left the Gulf with US military escort, Iran has refused to make any crossing.
Additionally, the US military claimed that US forces in the region destroyed six Iranian small boats, a claim also denied by the Iranian government. Rather, Iran claimed that the United States killed five civilians in an attack on an Iranian ship.
Muhanad Seloum, assistant professor of international politics and security at the Doha Graduate University, said the attack on Fujairah was a reminder that Iran does not need to directly attack US commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but could also attack Gulf states to maintain economic pressure on global markets.
“‘[Iran]is trying to tell the GCC countries that if the United States attacks us, we will destroy all our infrastructure and cause economic collapse,'” Sellloom told Al Jazeera, referring to Gulf Cooperation Council members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.
During the war, at least 6,413 missiles and drones were fired at seven Arab countries in the region, most of them aimed at the UAE. After normalizing relations through the Abraham Accords in 2020, Abu Dhabi has deepened its strategic partnership with Israel, an ally of the United States in the war against Iran. The UAE also effectively withdrew from the Saudi Arabia-led OPEC and OPEC+ oil cartels last month.
Seloum said Iran is taking advantage of regional dynamics.
“The bigger question1778000739is what this means for the GCC countries, and how long will they practice strategic patience,” Serloum said, referring to the policy of restraint adopted so far.
“At some point, they may view this as an existential threat,” he warned.
