Donald Trump’s effort to unseat Republican Congressman Thomas Massie has made Kentucky’s 4th District primary one of the most closely watched and expensive races of the U.S. midterm election season.
Massey, a conservative known for repeatedly breaking with his own party, drew the ire of President Trump by opposing the U.S. attack on Iran and supporting efforts to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein. The seven-term congressman now faces a heavily funded challenge from former Navy SEAL Ed Galine, who is backed by the president.
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With more than $20 million spent on the campaign ahead of Tuesday’s vote, the Kentucky primary is shaping up to be a key test of Trump’s grip on the Republican Party and whether Republican voters will side with the president or with lawmakers who have built a reputation for defying party leadership.
Kentucky is also holding a primary election for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by longtime Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, who served seven terms.
On the Republican side, the field is crowded with candidates, including Trump-backed Congressman Andy Barr and former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
Democrats are also participating in Senate, Congressional, statehouse and local elections across Kentucky.
Here’s what we know about this race.
When does voting start and end?
Kentucky voters head to the polls on Tuesday, May 19th for the primary election.
Polling stations open at 6:00 a.m. local time (10:00 GMT) and close at 6:00 p.m. local time (22:00 GMT). Voters who were still in line when polls closed will still be allowed to vote.
Most of Kentucky is in the Eastern Time Zone, so voting there ends at 6pm ET (10pm GMT). In the western part of the state, which follows Central Time, voting will close at 6pm local time. This corresponds to 7:00 PM ET (23:00 GMT).
What races are on the Kentucky ballot?
In Louisville, voters will cast their ballots in several high-profile local contests, including the following races:
Mayor Clerk Sheriff Multiple seats on the Louisville Metro Council
federal race
Kentucky voters will also have their next primary election.
US Senate US House of Representatives
State legislative elections are also on the ballot.
All 100 seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives
As of April 24, there were approximately 3.4 million registered voters in Kentucky, of whom approximately 1.6 million were registered Republicans and approximately 1.4 million were registered Democrats.
What are the races to watch?
Two Republican races in Kentucky are expected to garner national attention. The battle is for the Senate primary and the 4th Congressional District, where divisions within the Republican Party over the Iran war are major issues.
Battle for Kentucky’s 4th District
The race will be fought throughout Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, which stretches from the suburbs of Louisville to parts of Appalachia along the Ohio River.
At the center of the contest is Thomas Massie, one of the few Republicans who continues to openly challenge Trump. Since the president returned to power, many Republican critics have either aligned with Trump, left politics, or lost primaries to Trump-backed rivals.
Massey has opposed several policies supported by President Trump, criticized the Iran war and U.S. support for Israel, and supported efforts to limit President Trump’s ability to launch military action against Iran without Congressional approval.
Trump and his allies have instead backed his challenger, former Navy SEAL Ed Gullane, turning the race into a broader test of Trump’s grip on the Republican Party.
The contest has also attracted significant spending from pro-Israel groups and is increasingly seen as a referendum on divisions within the Republican base over foreign interference and loyalty to Trump.
us senate
Kentucky’s Republican Senate primary has also garnered national attention with longtime Sen. Mitch McConnell stepping down from Republican leadership after nearly 17 years at the top of the Senate.
“I turned 82 last week, and the end of my giving is closer than I had hoped,” McConnell said in announcing his decision earlier this year. “Father Time remains undefeated.”
The race is closely watched because it reflects the party’s broader ideology and generational shift as President Trump continues to rebuild the party around his “Make America Great Again” movement.
Mr. McConnell has represented the traditional Republican establishment for decades, a hawk on foreign policy and closely aligned with the conservatism of the Reagan-Bush era. But Trump’s rise has reorganized the party around a more populist movement that has increasingly sidelined establishment Republicans like McConnell.
Representative Andy Barr and former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who are vying for the Republican nomination in Tuesday’s primary, were once considered close allies of Mr. McConnell. But both have sought to distance themselves from the veteran senator as President Trump’s influence with Republican voters grows.
Although McConnell is no longer fully aligned with today’s MAGA politics, he still maintains deep influence and a loyal following in Kentucky, and candidates must carefully balance appealing to Trump’s base with respect for the longtime senator.
Barr received an endorsement from Trump earlier this month, with the president calling him “the vote we can trust because he knows what it takes to get things done.”
Stephen Vos, a political analyst at the University of Kentucky, said the candidates are walking a “razor edge” between Republicans still loyal to McConnell and voters dissatisfied with the party’s old structure from the Reagan-Bush era.
Why is the Kentucky primary important?
The Republican race is closely watched as it reflects some of the biggest debates shaping today’s Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections, including Trump’s influence on the party, divisions over foreign policy and the future direction of the party.
Democrats enter the Kentucky Senate race as clear underdogs in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in decades, but several candidates argue they can still compete by focusing on economic issues, health care and dissatisfaction with national politics.
When can I expect results?
Results from Kentucky’s primary election are expected to begin being released shortly after polls close Tuesday night, but timing will vary by race and county.
For the 2024 primary, the Associated Press first reported the results at 6:06 p.m. ET (10:06 GMT), just minutes after voting had closed in most of the state. The last update of the night was at 9:47pm ET (1:47pm Wednesday GMT), with more than 99.9% of votes counted.
Kentucky requires automatic recounts for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, state legislature, and nearly all statewide offices if the difference in votes is less than 0.5 percent of the total vote.
What do the polls say about the race?
Polls in Kentucky’s most-watched race, the Republican primary for the 4th Congressional District, predict a very close race between Mr. Massie and Mr. Galine.
A recent poll shared by Political Polls on May 18 suggests the race is tied, but an average of other polls also shows both candidates running close. However, the race is difficult to predict because the number of votes cast at the district level is limited and primary election turnout is unpredictable.
