Sunday marks the 100th day of the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.
But as fighting and ceasefire negotiations continue to escalate, the conflict remains overwhelmingly unpopular among the American public and has become a political liability for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party.
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Even before the war began, public opinion polls showed that most Americans opposed bombing Iran. The numbers did not improve even after the fighting began, and many American voters recognized the war as unnecessary and harmful to the country.
“What’s really clear is that very few Americans think this war with Iran is in America’s interests,” said Shively Telhami, a peace and development professor at the University of Maryland who conducted the poll on the war.
Experts say the lack of public support for the war is consequential, as it could weaken President Trump politically at home.
Democrats hope to regain control of Congress in November’s midterm elections, which could derail President Trump’s policies for the remainder of his term.
A University of Maryland Key Issues poll suggested Thursday that only 16% of American voters think the United States has won or is winning the war.
The survey results show that Americans are not convinced by the president’s repeated claims of victory.
The survey also found that a majority of voters, including 33% of Republicans, said the war had more negative than positive impacts on U.S. national interests.
In contrast, only 12 percent of respondents, including 25 percent of Republicans, said the war’s impact was more positive than negative.
Telhami described the results as “amazing”.
“This assessment among Republicans that the war has become more detrimental to American interests is a major turning point, because it’s likely to apply not only to younger Republicans but also to older Republicans, and I think that’s going to create difficulties for Mr. Trump going forward,” he told Al Jazeera.
Continuation of lockdown
The United States and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, several government officials, and hundreds of civilians.
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel and the entire region. The Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route for energy products, was also immediately shut down, causing oil and gas prices to soar.
A ceasefire was signed on April 6, but skirmishes continue in the Gulf, and Iran’s blockade of Hormuz continues. The United States also placed its own naval siege on Iranian ports.
Despite President Trump’s frequent assertions that the two countries are close to a deal, there have been no major diplomatic breakthroughs to end the “no war, no peace” situation.
Although there has been no heavy fighting since the start of the ceasefire, perceptions of the conflict in the United States have not improved.
“This is simply a very unpopular war,” said Jonathan Geyer, program director at the Institute of International Affairs (IGA), which conducted the poll on the conflict.
“It’s a little more popular among Republicans than Democrats, but there are still some very interesting opposing views in the Republican Party as well.”
In an IGA poll conducted last month, 58% of respondents, including 21% of Republicans, said they disapproved of President Trump’s handling of the war.
Only 24% say the conflict makes the United States safer.
Foreign policy rarely ranks near the top of voters’ priorities, but closing the Strait of Hormuz is hurting Americans’ wallets and fueling inflation.
Americans seem to be keenly aware of the relevance.
IGA’s survey suggests that 79% of voters, including a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and independents, say the war has “affected the cost of living” in the United States.
Telhami said the conflict is now an economic rather than just a diplomatic issue for the United States, which will have a major impact in the midterm elections.
“Right now it’s about the wallet,” he said. “This is no longer just a foreign exercise. It’s no longer just an exercise that takes place far from our shores.”
“I don’t care about midterm exams.”
President Trump has often pointed to the recent rally in the stock market and has denied the economic impact of the war.
He also argued that economic hardship is a small price to pay for achieving his goal in Iran, which is to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons, a goal Iran denies.
President Trump suggested last month that domestic pressure had no role in the war effort.
“I’m not thinking about the economic situation of Americans. I’m not thinking about anyone else,” he said. “I think about one thing: We can’t let Iran have nuclear weapons, that’s it. That’s the only thing that drives me.”
He also said the November vote was not factored into Iran’s strategy. “I don’t care about the midterm elections,” he told reporters.
But Telhami believes Trump is trying to project a complacency about the domestic consequences, lest Iranians believe he is desperate to end the war, which would weaken his negotiating position.
“There are many reasons why he cares, one of which is his legacy, especially in terms of economics,” Telhami told Al Jazeera.
He added that the Gulf blockade would cause oil prices to rise and the war could be an economic disaster for the United States. That could hurt Republicans’ chances at the polls.
“It’s definitely going to have an impact on the midterm elections, and if the Republicans lose both houses of Congress, the president will be in a terrible position, unable to implement his policies and possibly facing impeachment,” Telhami said.
Critics say Trump’s disregard for the economic hardships of Americans may be hurting his appeal.
The president of the United States also seems to be easily distracted. His posts on the Truth Social platform demonstrate his interest in a variety of subjects. One moment he might be posting about talks with Iran. In other cases, he may be attacking his opponents by criticizing the media or stressing the need to build a White House ballroom.
“A wartime president does not act with the seriousness of a commander in chief,” Geyer said.
No accumulation
Telhami also emphasized that the runway to war is short. Before bombing Iran, the Trump administration did not tell the American public about the impending need for an attack, nor did it raise the issue with Congress.
Rather, the administration was in the midst of indirect negotiations over the future of Iran’s nuclear program, and further talks were planned at the time of the February 28 attack.
“In any war, the president usually inspires the people,” Telhami said. “In this particular case, there was no attempt to justify the war.”
By contrast, then-President George W. Bush and his aides spent months drumming up the supposed threat from Iraq before invading the country in 2003.
“That buildup included claiming war. Yes, it was a bogus lawsuit, but they were still making the claim. Many people started believing it,” Telhami said.
The professor emphasized that Trump has billed himself as a “peace” president and has vocally opposed past military involvement in the Middle East.
Trump’s anti-interventionist stance as a candidate may have contributed to his victory. Polls show Americans are tired of war after decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
For Geyer, this shows the unpopularity of the Iran war, and is not just about economics.
He said the conflict could sway voters because it ties into other issues Americans care about, such as Washington’s relationship with Israel and the ballooning U.S. military budget, which is expected to reach $1.5 trillion.
“The unpopularity of Israel, the unpopularity of the Iran war, the unpopularity of U.S. militarism, these things have a lot of resonance and seem to indicate that foreign policy is important to Americans,” he told Al Jazeera.
