Sunday marks 100 days in a war that US President Donald Trump has said will end “very quickly.”
Despite a ceasefire agreed on April 8, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, sporadic shelling continues, and negotiations have repeatedly broken down.
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In this visual commentary, Al Jazeera tracks the first 100 days of the war, from the number of dead and displaced to the shock to the global economy and the prospect of an agreement.
At least 7,000 people died
More people have now been killed in Lebanon than in Iran, the war’s original target.
At least 3,593 people have been confirmed dead in Lebanon, 3,468 in Iran and 29 in Gulf states, according to preliminary figures, with 26 Israelis and 13 US soldiers also killed in Iranian attacks since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran.
Figures may change due to changing circumstances as more information becomes available.
Israel occupies one-fifth of Lebanon
Despite a separate ceasefire in Lebanon that took effect on April 17, Israel continues to attack the southern part of the country.
More than a million Lebanese have been displaced by the Israeli attack, which Prime Minister Nawaf Salam described as “scorched earth policy and collective punishment” that destroyed towns and villages and forced residents into exile.
As of June 1, Israeli forces had reached the outskirts of Nabatiyeh, a city in southern Lebanon. In doing so, they captured Beaufort Castle, marking their deepest advance into Lebanon in more than 25 years. Israeli forces currently occupy nearly a fifth of the country, or 2,000 square kilometers (770 square miles).
Israel has said its objective in Lebanon is to eliminate key Hezbollah fighters south of the Litani River near the border. But the military is operating far beyond that line, with forced evacuation orders as far as the Zaarani River, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) north of the Litani River.
More than 3 million Iranians were also displaced in the first two weeks of the war, with US and Israeli attacks shelling key infrastructure and civilian facilities in the country.
Strait of Hormuz: from 100 ships to 7 ships daily
Hundreds of ships have been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway that once carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas.
About 607 ships passed through the strait between February 28 and May 31, according to ship tracking data. This is an average of about seven ships per day, far lower than the pre-war number of about 100 ships per day.
The closure of the strait depleted the world’s oil reserves at a record pace, raising concerns that they would be depleted as the conflict dragged on. Additionally, the United States has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, further disrupting commercial shipping in the waterway.
The inability of tankers to leave the Channel will result in longer voyages, reduced vessel availability on major shipping routes and higher freight costs.
146 countries raise gas prices
Energy markets have been reeling from the war, with oil prices nearly doubling in the past three months.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental organization that tracks global energy markets, described the disruption as the biggest energy shock in history.
Before the war, the price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for oil prices, was about $70 per barrel. A week after the start of the war, the price exceeded $100 for the first time since 2022, eventually peaking near $120 before settling around $100, where it remains today.
At the center of these oil fluctuations in particular was President Trump’s social media activity, with his posts on Truth Social frequently causing multibillion-dollar fluctuations in oil futures.
Ordinary people are already feeling the effects of rising prices. Gasoline price increases have been reported in at least 146 countries since late February, according to an Al Jazeera tally.
Asian countries, which import about 60% of their oil from the Gulf, face the highest costs at gas stations, with gas prices rising more than 90% in the first three months of the conflict in countries such as Myanmar.
In Africa, Nigerians pay more than 50 percent more for gas, and in some Latin American countries like Peru, it costs 40 percent more to fill up a tank than before the war.
Few countries are protected from the effects of the war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s not just gas prices that are rising; oil and gas are the raw materials for thousands of everyday products, from water bottles and food packaging to laundry detergent.
The world’s food supply is essentially built on natural gas in the form of fertilizers, which is used to increase crop yields and enable food production to meet demand. As a result, food prices fluctuate in tandem with energy prices, affecting every step of the food supply chain, from the fertilizer used in fields to the trucks that transport food from fields to supermarket shelves.
Oil majors are benefiting from higher prices, but if prices remain high they risk weakening the economy and potentially pushing it into recession.
“It is still too early to judge the full impact of the war,” Hadi Kaharzadeh, a non-resident researcher at the Quincy Institute for Responsible States, told Al Jazeera. “We know that global GDP has contracted and inflation has risen, raising concerns about slower growth, higher inflation, and the risk of a new economic downturn (as reflected in IMF, World Bank, and OECD estimates). Rising prices for energy, fertilizers, and key metals have increased industrial and agricultural input costs, negatively impacting growth and inflation. However, the full impact on global supply chains remains unclear.”
The world market initially retreated
Global stock markets initially fell sharply as investors priced in the risk of a global energy shock and broader regional wars, with the S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock market index, down 9.1% from its record high by late March.
As the war progresses, global stock markets have moved in response to diplomatic signals and President Trump’s social media signals, with indexes falling and recovering on rumors of escalation and a ceasefire, respectively, leading to unproven allegations of market manipulation.
“Serious questions are being raised about suspicious market activity surrounding President Trump’s major announcements regarding Iran and war. U.S. regulators are reportedly investigating some of these transactions,” Kaharzadeh told Al Jazeera.
“There are also broader concerns about conflicts of interest, particularly those close to President Trump and their financial relationships in the Middle East.”
European indices such as the FTSE 100, the Euro Stoxx 600 and the German DAX suffered sharply, falling sharply in early March due to the European economy’s dependence on oil given its energy-intensive industries.
Asian markets, which depended heavily on Gulf oil, were hit the hardest, with the Nikkei stock average suffering the largest single-day loss at the start of the war. The Nikkei Stock Average soared in late April, when Pakistan was brokering ceasefire negotiations, but fell by mid-May when the two countries engaged in a gunfight.
Global stock markets are caught between an inflationary shock driven by energy prices and a secular bull market in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Despite the war, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 have reached record highs so far this year, driven by a strong “AI semiconductor boom.”
Several rounds of negotiations, no agreement
Twice so far, war has broken out in the middle of negotiations. The first was in June 2025, and the other on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran while negotiations were still ongoing.
Ceasefire takes effect (April 8th)
The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. The deal was aimed at suspending fighting and resuming diplomatic talks, but Iran agreed to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Within hours, Israel launched more than 100 airstrikes across Lebanon, killing more than 250 people.
Meeting in Islamabad (April 11-12)
The first serious negotiations to end the war took place in Pakistan on April 11-12.
Iran and the US met in Islamabad, but ultimately broke down over the nuclear issue. President Trump said, “We agreed on most things, but the one important nuclear issue was not.”
Iran rejected the US position and made a counter-offer, which President Trump later dismissed as “garbage” and warned that the ceasefire was “on life support.” The United States immediately announced a naval blockade of Iranian shipping.
Lack of confidence in post-ceasefire negotiations
Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, explained how the end of the war may be near, but there is still room for interpretation depending on who leaves room.
“It will be much more difficult to reach a narrower agreement with more details,” Rahman told Al Jazeera.
“He (President Trump) relies on non-experts to negotiate major issues, and that doesn’t produce anything. He wants to write 10 points on the back of a napkin and agree on 10 points, not negotiate a well-crafted, detailed agreement that will hold up over time.”
“I think the Iranians are acutely aware of that. They don’t trust the United States and they don’t trust President Trump to abide by any agreements he signs in the future,” Rahman said.
According to RealClearPolitics polling average, as of June 2, President Trump’s approval rating is 40.3 percent, while 57 percent of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, a net difference of 16.7 points. This suggests a significant decline from before the US and Israel attacked Iran.
