The recent escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran has exposed what some observers say is the most serious rift ever in the relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, revealing increasingly divergent interests between the two leaders.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described President Trump as “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” and the two once appeared to be politically inseparable. President Trump also returned the praise. “He’s not easy. He’s not the easiest guy to deal with, but that’s what makes him great,” he joked during a 2025 match in Israel.
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Trump is no longer a joke. Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly called him “fucking crazy” during a phone call, accused him of undermining U.S. diplomacy and warned that Israel’s military escalation risked derailing peace talks with Iran.
Tensions were made clear on Sunday when Iran fired a volley of missiles into northern Israel, following an Israeli attack on the southern outskirts of Beirut on June 7, despite assurances days earlier from the United States that such a thing would not happen. The Iranian missile attack was the first since a fragile ceasefire brokered by Pakistan between the United States and Iran reached two months ago, threatening to collapse months of negotiations.
Asked about the possibility of Prime Minister Netanyahu approving a peace deal with Iran, President Trump told the Financial Times: “He has no choice.” “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”
Since then, Iran and Israel have stopped attacking each other. But the conflict has left Netanyahu politically constrained, caught between pressure from the United States to ease tensions and demands from far-right government ministers to continue the war with Iran and Lebanon even without American support. Analysts say Israel cannot maintain this position for long.
What is the core of the disagreement between the United States and Israel?
Ultimately, observers say both leaders are driven by their own political interests and are on a collision course. Because war with Iran remains deeply unpopular in the United States, President Trump will need to reach a deal with Iran to end the war. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu could benefit politically at home if things continue.
Indeed, as soon as President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu launched a joint missile attack on Iran in late February, their goals began to diverge.
Israeli leaders have suggested the conflict could result in a quick victory, weakening or even overthrowing the Iranian government while crippling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
But Chatham House Middle East analyst Yossi Mekelberg said such assumptions on which the campaign was based quickly disintegrated. “The war didn’t go the way they wanted,” he told Al Jazeera.
“The biggest mistake was assuming it would be done well and quickly and that it would achieve its objectives. They thought it would bring about regime change and end Iran’s nuclear program and its ballistic missile program. Obviously, it was a complete failure.”
The conflict also created economic consequences that threatened President Trump’s own domestic political interests. When Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are transported in peacetime, global energy markets were shaken and oil prices soared.
Mekelberg said the U.S. government appears unprepared for the inevitable scenario that many analysts have been warning about for years. “The United States doesn’t seem to be thinking strategically about how to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. It shows this administration’s inability to think strategically.”
With fuel prices soaring and Democrats looking to gain momentum in November’s midterm parliamentary elections, President Trump has a strong incentive to secure a quick deal and has little appetite for prolonging the Middle East crisis while preparing for the World Cup.
Ultimately, despite the long-standing ties between Israel and the United States, the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu remains essentially transactional, Mekelberg said.
“Trump is selfish and self-centered,” he said. “This is a transactional relationship. It depends on how good the deal is and if it doesn’t work out for him. As we see with Trump, this is his method: ‘I’m your friend’ until it’s no longer in his interest.”
“But at a deeper level, the serious problem is that they have dismantled the Middle East. Now the two countries’ interests are diverging and they are colliding in a very asymmetrical way, with each side pursuing its own interests.”
How much influence does President Trump have?
As Israel becomes increasingly isolated internationally over its actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and throughout the region, the United States remains Israel’s most important diplomatic protector and major military supplier and financial supporter. This is becoming increasingly important as Israel’s traditional European allies begin to distance themselves from Netanyahu’s government.
The U.S. government provides Israel at least $3.8 billion annually under a 10-year military aid agreement from 2019 to 2028. The package includes $3.3 billion through the Foreign Military Financing Program and another $500 million for the Joint Missile Defense Program.
A recent Al Jazeera investigation found that 42 percent of weapons entering Israel originate from the United States.
Israeli journalist and author Gideon Levy told Al Jazeera that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s dependence on the United States leaves him with little room for maneuver. “Israel is in no position to say no to Donald Trump, and Prime Minister Netanyahu is in no position to say no,” Levy said. “Israel’s dependence on the United States has now reached an unprecedented stage, and Israel cannot stand up to Iran without the United States.
“The reality on the ground is that no matter what Trump says to Netanyahu, Netanyahu must act on Trump’s word.”
So what is Prime Minister Netanyahu’s position?
President Trump’s push for a ceasefire clashes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s domestic ambitions. War with Iran is also popular within Israel, where public support for military action remains overwhelming.
Levy pointed out that public opinion polls show support for attacking Iran at about 93%. “Traditionally in Israel, it is much easier to get majority agreement to start a new war than any diplomatic agreement,” Levy said.
With elections due by the end of October, some analysts argue that continued conflict would serve Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political interests. The problem is that Washington appears increasingly intent on pursuing a diplomatic solution with Iran.
Negotiations between the US and Iran are being conducted indirectly through Pakistani intermediaries, with Israel not participating in any way. Reports suggest that a future deal would leave the Iranian government intact but allow continued, albeit limited, nuclear development.
The Iranian government reportedly demanded that any deal prevent Israel from launching future military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Under such an agreement, an Israeli attack on Beirut without guaranteed U.S. support risks triggering Iranian retaliation, a scenario Netanyahu would not like.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a sort of impasse,” Levy said. “His life project was Iran and the belief that Iran could be defeated by force. This was proven wrong in the last two rounds in Iran.”
The agreement between the United States and Iran barring further Israeli military action in Lebanon risks undermining Israel’s carefully cultivated image of military superiority while deepening divisions within Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition, tensions already brewing within Israeli political circles.
Netanyahu has reportedly asked his cabinet to avoid public confrontation with Washington, but his own defense minister said Israel’s military targets will continue despite Trump’s comments.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, whose support Netanyahu’s government relies on to stay in power, recently warned that Israel must draw clear boundaries with Washington.
“We need to make it clear to President Trump that there is a line we cannot cross. If we are attacked by Lebanon or Iran, that is a line we cannot cross and we must respond.”
The dispute has also served as a distraction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial, which is now in its sixth year. He also has an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant pending against him for Israel’s actions in Gaza, and his loss of power could expose him to unprecedented legal turmoil if he is not re-elected. Analysts have suggested that staying in power may be the Israeli prime minister’s main military goal, leaving Netanyahu to walk an increasingly narrow tightrope.
Is this a real divide or just political theater?
Many analysts doubt that the apparent rift between Israel and the United States signals any meaningful change in the relationship.
Phyllis Bennis, a fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., and an international adviser to the activist group Jewish Voice for Peace, argued that Trump’s criticisms are not consistent with his actions.
“If words and actions match, then those words can matter,” she told Al Jazeera. “All we’re seeing now is a series of words that aren’t backed up by actions: ‘You better be careful, you’ll be on your own.'”
Bennis noted that Washington continues to provide billions of dollars in military aid to protect Israel from liability before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the ICC and to maintain arms flow.
She compared President Trump’s approach to that of former US President Joe Biden during the early stages of Israel’s war in Gaza.
“The leaders will say, ‘Stop killing so many Palestinians,’ but they continue to supply arms and money… those words don’t mean much,” Bennis said.
