Sitting in the Oval Office on Wednesday, President Donald Trump told reporters on live television that the United States is smuggling millions of barrels of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, despite tensions over Iran’s restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz waterway.
That’s why President Trump insisted that oil prices have hovered around $90 a barrel in recent days, rather than above $100 a barrel, as they did in the early weeks of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.
The narrow, strategic waterway, which is responsible for 20 percent of the world’s energy flows, has been largely closed since early March after the United States and Israel attacked Tehran.
Iran announced in early March that it would no longer allow any ships to pass through the strait. Afterwards, they agreed to allow limited passage of ships from some “friendly countries” on the condition that they negotiated passage with Iran. On April 13, five days after signing a cease-fire with Tehran, the United States imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ships and ports.
Only a few ships have been able to cross the Strait of Hormuz due to a naval blockade by the United States on the one hand and Iranian authorities on the other.
Against this backdrop, could the US really have forced a ship carrying millions of barrels of oil out of the strait without Iran’s permission?
What did Mr. Trump claim?
On Wednesday, President Trump said at the White House that the United States is “taking out millions of barrels of oil. No one knows it.”
He added that Iran was blindsided by the US move. “We destroyed 22 ships the other day in the middle of the night with no lights on, because they didn’t have radar. Because we blew up the junk out of there (Iran’s strategic infrastructure).”
The president said he chose to talk about this so-called secret mission because the Iranian government understood it.
He later reiterated the claim on his Truth Social platform, saying that last month he had directed the US military to carry out “a covert mission in support of oil tankers and other commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
He added that the effort had led to the movement of 100 million barrels of oil through the strait.
“More than 200 commercial ships have safely passed through the Strait, a highly successful effort because the United States, not Iran, controls the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote.
“The military will be defeated, the economy will be lost. It’s over for Iran!”
However, President Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at a Congressional hearing on the same day that he had no knowledge that the United States was removing millions of barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, but added that the military helped remove oil from the narrow strait.
Wright clarified that the ships passing through the strait were not Iranian.
Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar use the waterway to export goods.
Did the US manage to get past Iran?
Let’s consider President Trump’s claims in context. The president claimed in a social media post that the military had pushed 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the war broke out in Gulf waters, about 140 ships, including oil tankers, passed through the chokepoint strait between the Iranian and Omani coasts every day. Before tensions escalated, about 20 million barrels a day flowed through the corridor.
The president’s claim of 100 million barrels of oil is roughly equivalent to five days’ worth of prewar production. This compares to the approximately 2 billion barrels that would have passed through the Strait of Hormuz during the war had the conflict not continued.
However, even five days of maritime traffic passing through this strait before the war would amount to about 700 ships.
And while ships guided by U.S. forces in the waterway have sometimes turned off their transponders, as Trump has claimed, there has been no evidence so far that the volume of traffic passing through the straits during the war was sufficient to support Trump’s claims.
Shipping tracking and intelligence companies give varying numbers of ships that have passed through the strait since tensions began. That’s because they have different standards for what constitutes a transit.
Windward has recorded nearly 80 commercial ships leaving the bay in the past five weeks. Lloyd’s List estimates that 142 ships have left the area since March. Kpler claims it has the highest number ever, with 264 ship passes.
Even Kupler’s figures fall short of the 100 million barrels of oil that would have passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war.
Many of the ships that have passed through the strait have done so with Iran’s permission and by paying tolls to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), not as part of a U.S. plan that has silenced Tehran.
Who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
The role of the U.S. military in supporting ships is unclear. CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins said in a statement that the military was “liaising and coordinating” with commercial vessels in the area, without going into details.
In the face of a punitive economic blockade of Iranian ports by the United States, the Revolutionary Guards maintain a firm grip on strategic waterways.
Countries friendly to Tehran, including Pakistan, India and Russia, are negotiating passage for some ships carrying essential energy supplies. Some ships reportedly paid in Chinese currency, the renminbi, to secure passage.
After the war, Iran came to see the Strait of Hormuz as an economic lifeline and introduced insurance-like fees to allow passage. The United States opposes the imposition, with critics arguing that it is essentially an illegal toll plaza on international waterways.
The Iranian government said the Strait of Hormuz is not international waters and is shared exclusively between Iran and Oman.
“Iran appears to be trying to turn its geographic influence into financial influence,” said Oscar Seikaly, CEO of Florida-based NSI Insurance Group. “The basic idea is old: control chokepoints and then charge for access.”
As Al Jazeera previously reported, Seikaly also argued that it would be cheaper in the long run for ships to pay to Iran than to be stuck in the strait.
Seikaly said very large crude oil carriers, also known as VLCC tankers, cost nearly $100,000 a day, and a 100-day delay could amount to $10 million.
“That’s before you factor in cargo financing, insurance complexities, crew, bunkers, security, contractual penalties, etc.,” he told Al Jazeera. “If markets are under stress, the real economic losses can be significantly higher.”
However, Seikaly said paying to Iran is not an option many ships choose because it “could pose sanctions risks, legal risks, reputational risks and insurance issues.”
