As the U.S. and Iranian governments move toward a long-term ceasefire agreement, Gulf states are likely to seek new long-term security solutions when the war in the region they did not start ultimately ends.
This comes after US President Donald Trump called off new attacks on Iran, saying a deal with Iran was imminent and the “time” and “place” of its signing would be announced soon.
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Officials in Tehran are taking a more cautious stance, with one senior Iranian official telling Al Jazeera that the government is considering a draft memorandum of understanding with Washington.
Subsequent comments by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif suggested that a deal was in place, and what follows in the coming days could have important implications for the region’s collective security.
attack on the gulf
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the United States operates military facilities in at least 19 locations in the MENA region, including permanent bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Before the war against Iran began, between 40,000 and 50,000 U.S. troops were stationed in the region.
The U.S.-Gulf ties appeared to protect the countries from conflicts involving other parts of the region, but over the past four months Gulf states that host U.S. military facilities have become targets for Iran.
“If there is a way to explain the security model that has prevailed in the region since the 1980s, the concept of security partnership best describes it,” said Mahjoub al-Zuwayri, a scholar and expert on Middle East politics.
“Countries in the region have chosen to align their security with a broad international alliance. For decades, this model has provided reasonable deterrence and logistical and intelligence depth that is difficult to replace.”
security umbrella with hole
The war against Iran has exposed contradictions. Iranian officials have repeatedly referred to their Gulf neighbors as “brothers” and have repeatedly targeted them during the war.
Gulf states have been repeatedly targeted despite protests that attacks against Iran were not carried out from their territory.
At least 28 people have been killed in suspected Iranian drone and rocket attacks in six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. This raises questions about the U.S.-Gulf security agreement.
Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera: “The war itself has shattered that sense of security. The U.S. security umbrella is at worst moribund and at best powerless.”
“They have long relied on Iran for their security. But the presence of U.S. forces on their territory meant that they became a direct target. They cannot escape their geography, and despite tensions, despite hostilities, despite attacks, Iran will not disappear. They have to find a way to deal with this reality.”
economic cost of war
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has proven to be a setback for some Gulf countries that are working to diversify their energy-dependent economies into tourism, services and finance, but not all countries are equally affected.
Saudi Arabia has been able to redirect some of its oil exports to the Red Sea via an east-west pipeline, while Oman, whose main port is outside the Strait of Hormuz, has also benefited from higher energy prices.
The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are more severely affected because they rely on waterways for energy exports, but the war is prompting new thinking about long-standing security and economic agreements.
“While new pipelines are being installed, the capacity of these alternative pipelines is infinitely smaller than the strait itself,” Mabon said. “It will take significant investment and years of development to come close to replacing it.”
Closer to Iran?
One lesson from this conflict is that the Gulf states may seek engagement rather than confrontation with Iran, and they had already laid some groundwork before the US-Israel war began.
The UAE restored diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2022, and a year later, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalize diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China.
Al Zuwayri said the conflict could revive plans for a MENA-led regional security pact. Conceptualized in the 2019 Hormuz Peace Initiative, a Gulf security framework was proposed involving Iran, Iraq, and six GCC states.
However, the mistrust that has built up since then, especially Iran’s attacks on its Gulf neighbors, makes such a formation unlikely in the near future.
“The recent war has opened the door wide open to rethinking the Gulf security posture with neighboring countries,” Al Zuwayri said.
“How can Tehran propose a non-aggression pact while raining missiles on neighboring cities? The idea seems sound in theory, but it is effectively bankrupt unless Iran’s behavior changes.”
Are you looking beyond Washington?
A solution to the Gulf problem could be a hybrid agreement that maintains ties with Washington, but other regional and domestic options would also be considered, such as increased investment in the local defense industry.
A possible blueprint could be the mutual defense agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan last September, which states that an attack on either country is considered an attack on both countries.
But while past instances in which Gulf states felt abandoned by the United States, with the UAE and Bahrain deepening ties with Israel, have sometimes led to differing responses, the new paradigm means more collective action on security issues may be considered.
“This war has proven that no matter how many flags a guarantor raises, it protects its own interests first,” al-Zuwayri said.
“This region will end up paying the price for a war it did not choose…Gulf security will not be created in Washington…it will be created when Gulf states realize they must build it themselves. Because when a fire breaks out, it is always those closest to the flames who pay the price.”
