Fifteen years after NATO’s intervention in the Libyan rebellion set the stage for prolonged chaos and political crisis, the United States is leading a diplomatic push toward a plan for unity in the North African country.
The plan, led by President Donald Trump’s top adviser on Arab, Middle East and African affairs Massad Boulos (who is also the father of Trump’s son-in-law Michael Boulos), aims to turn Libya’s growing financial crisis into an incentive for warring factions to cooperate.
Libya has been divided into rival eastern and western regimes since civil war erupted after a 2011 NATO operation helped overthrow longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi.
Here’s what we know about the U.S. plan for Libya.
The United States is working to unify Libya’s rival factions.
Libya remains politically and militarily divided between two main rival regimes and their allied militias. They are the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNU) in Tripoli, and the eastern-based Libyan Arab Army, led by Khalifa Haftar (commonly known as the Libyan National Army (LNA)).
Since 2020, most formal mediation has been led by the United Nations, particularly the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), although the United States has become a key behind-the-scenes mediator.
In May 2021, the government appointed Ambassador Richard Noland as special envoy to Libya, splitting his time between rival factions and regional capitals and leading high-level diplomatic efforts in the country.
During President Trump’s second term, that role was taken over by Massad Boulos. His son Michael is married to the US president’s youngest daughter Tiffany.
“The United States is leading negotiations between Libya’s rival elites to form a unity government,” Tim Eaton, a senior fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
“The U.S. public message is that this is the creation of an inclusive government, but their efforts really depend on whether the Haftar and Dbeibah families formally agree to be part of the same government,” said Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, a businessman-turned-politician and Prime Minister of Libya’s internationally recognized government.
What is the situation in Libya?
Starting March 19, 2011, a NATO-led coalition including the United States, United Kingdom, and France conducted air operations in Libya, providing vital support to rebel forces fighting the Gaddafi regime. Colonel Gaddafi has been in power since 1969.
After rebels captured and summarily killed Gaddafi in October 2011, Libya was left with no viable successor state. This created a power vacuum. Since then, Libya has had multiple competing governments, militias and armed groups.
Who are the various factions and what do they want?
The GNU is based in western Libya and is the country’s official government, recognized by the United Nations and most countries.
Despite its diplomatic recognition, it has no influence over vast areas of the country.
Haftar’s LNA controls the east, including the strategic port city of Benghazi. Historically, it has received support from the United Arab Emirates and Russia.
Libya is effectively divided, so the central bank is trying to fund two parallel governments.
What do we know about the US plan?
Boulos has been traveling to Libya since 2025, early in President Trump’s term. But details of his plans first emerged through an interview he gave to the Financial Times in June.
At the heart of President Trump’s plan is a promise that the United States would encourage its companies to invest in Libya’s huge oil fields if the two warring powers came together to jointly rule the country. The UN recognizes the Tripoli government, so any oil deals must be signed with the UN. However, Haftar’s forces control the actual areas of Libya where the oil fields and terminals are located. Only if they cooperate will international investment be able to enter Libya’s oil sector.
Meanwhile, Libya’s central bank has made it clear that it is unable to continue providing sustainable financing to the two governments.
Analysts say it is this combination of looming crisis and the promise of opportunity that Mr. Boulos and Mr. Trump hope will persuade Libya’s two factions to unite.
Leaked details of Mr. Boulos’ plan also suggest that the United States is proposing a power-sharing arrangement. This means that Dbeibah will continue to lead the government, while Khalifa Haftar’s son and LNA army chief Saddam Haftar will serve as the de facto president.
There are several motives for the United States to mediate in Libya.
Firstly, the country has large oil and gas reserves, with the largest confirmed oil reserves in all of Africa. Dbeibah announced in January that the country broke a 12-year oil production record last year, producing 1.37 million barrels per day.
“For Special Assistant Massad Boulos, Libya appears to provide an arena where political stability can serve as a springboard for increased U.S. commercial involvement in Libya’s oil sector,” Eaton said.
“If done correctly, it will be a win-win here as long-term investments from major international oil companies will benefit Libya.”
The oil is located very strategically. Libya will load oil onto a tanker in the Mediterranean Sea and it will arrive in Italy in two days. Unblocking Libya’s resources could particularly help Europe and the West, as the US and Israel’s war against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz force the world to consider alternative routes for energy sources. Libya’s light and sweet grades of oil match those most commonly handled by European refineries.
Ending the Libyan crisis would also satisfy Western countries’ desire to curb irregular migration to Europe via Libya.
“But the question is whether Mr. Boulos’ plan will actually bring the needed stability or will only entrench deeply flawed power brokers,” he said, referring to Mr. Haftar and Mr. Dbeibah. “Most Libyans believe that such an agreement will not bring stability but a return to family rule.”
Eaton said that so far, the most successful element of the mediation between the Dbeibah and Haftar families was the agreement on a unified national budget for 2026.
The landmark agreement was signed in April and represents Libya’s first unified budget in more than a decade.
“However, to date there has been no agreement on the formation of a unified government.”
Saddam Haftar is believed to have expressed support for the initiative. Eaton said he met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C., last week.
“However, the Dbeibah family has not yet signed. Such an agreement would be risky for them as there is widespread opposition to the Haftar family in western Libya,” he added.
“And even if a deal can be struck, the Dbeibah family will seek guarantees that the Haftar family will not use it as a springboard for a military takeover of the country. The United States is unlikely to provide such guarantees.”
A draft outline of the Libyan Unity Plan shared with Reuters provides for a 36-month interim power-sharing arrangement under a body called the National Consensus Government and Presidential Council.
Reuters also reported on Monday that Pakistan had joined mediation efforts. Reuters reported, citing two anonymous sources in Pakistan. Al Jazeera has not been able to independently verify this report.
However, Pakistan’s military commander Asim Munir met with Saddam Haftar in Rawalpindi last month, and Haftar visited Washington DC a few days later.
The U.S. State Department said in a statement at the time that Rubio welcomed the efforts of Libyan leaders to overcome division and reaffirmed U.S. support for Libya’s unity.
Analysts view Pakistan as a second-tier player in Libya, where the United States, United Arab Emirates, Turkiye and Egypt have long fought for influence, but Islamabad has maintained ties with both countries that other regional actors may lack.
Pakistani officials have pursued defense ties with the eastern-based LNA, including the potential sale of JF-17 fighter jets and Super Mushshak trainer aircraft, despite a UN arms embargo.
But rival Western GNU has also recently sought direct negotiations with Pakistan, according to unreported documents seen by Reuters.
