Air raid sirens are ringing across the Gulf as the United States and Iran launch another major attack on each other, and tensions are rising as the two countries’ fragile cease-fire agreement has unraveled over the past week.
Oil prices soared and markets plummeted after the Iranian government closed off the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s energy kill switch and the biggest flashpoint in the ongoing conflict.
“Revenge is the will of the nation,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire signed in April between the belligerents was “over.”
So have the US and Iran returned to full-scale war?
How did the ceasefire between the US and Iran end?
On July 6, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) attacked three commercial vessels, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, off the coast of Oman.
The next day, the United States announced that it had carried out retaliatory strikes against military targets in Iran, prompting Tehran to respond with missile and drone attacks on American military bases across the Gulf.
On Wednesday, President Trump said the ceasefire was over. The Revolutionary Guards have closed the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the United States is interfering with its management of the waterway by facilitating alternative shipping routes.
This triggered retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran, with the US government carrying out deadly attacks on multiple Iranian cities, most of them along the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran.
Iran attacked Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, and Qatar, and carried out further attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Will the US and Iran return to full-scale war?
Analysts told Al Jazeera that the conflict has now evolved from retaliatory attacks to sustained fighting, but the areas involved are limited.
In the first round of attacks on Iran, which began on February 28, the United States and Israel conducted extensive and sustained air operations across Iranian cities. The attack killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on the first day of the war.
In contrast, recent U.S. attacks have been largely focused around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s counterattacks have so far focused on military bases in the Gulf used by U.S. forces, but debris from intercepted missiles and drones has fallen elsewhere, causing injuries.
Unlike the relentless air attacks on Iran in March and Tehran’s own violent response to attacks on Gulf states, this latest attack comes at a time when the United States and Iran have not yet completely ruled out negotiations. In fact, in his post announcing the end of the ceasefire, President Trump said the two countries would continue to talk.
Qatar and Pakistan are working behind the scenes to contain the conflict.
Further questions remain at home, especially if the Trump administration must secure Congressional approval for a war against Iran.
The War Powers Act states that wars must be authorized by Congress 60 days after the start of hostilities. President Trump sidestepped this request by claiming that the war was already “over” when the ceasefire began on April 7, before the end of the first 60 days of the war.
The war against Iran is widely unpopular in the United States. Opinion polls also showed that voters were dissatisfied with the Trump administration’s handling of inflation and soaring oil prices, resulting in a decline in President Trump’s approval ratings.
What’s different from March?
Late February and March saw the heaviest fighting between the two sides. The conflict shattered the long-held perception that the region’s commercial hubs were insulated from major conflicts.
Targets – different sizes and types
A US attack on a school in the southern Iranian city of Minab killed 168 children on the first day of the war. Iranian missiles and drones hit Dubai’s skyline, setting the luxury Fairmont The Palm hotel ablaze, while debris from the intercepted projectiles fell near the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, and the Dubai Marina.
The United States and Israel attacked Iranian energy facilities, and Iran retaliated by bombing oil and gas facilities across the Gulf. Several international airports in the region were forced to suspend operations.
So far in the ongoing conflict, the United States and Iran have been more restrained in the nature of their chosen targets, mostly avoiding civilian and energy infrastructure.
Previously, the United States and Israel had said their strategic objectives in the war included the deterioration of Iran’s military and command structure and the denuclearization of Tehran. The current fighting appears to be focused on both sides forcing the other to retreat in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel
Another major difference at this stage of the conflict is that Israel has not openly joined the US in the recent attack on Iran.
When the war began, Israel was a major party to the conflict. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at one point said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government forced the US to start the war. Mr. Trump denied this.
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed in June between the United States and Iran mandates a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. Beirut has also signed a separate ceasefire with Israel, demanding that Israeli forces withdraw from part of the land they occupy in southern Lebanon.
Israel has not complied with any of the agreements and continues to carry out attacks, albeit infrequently, in southern Lebanon.
islamabad memorandum
Despite glaring gaps in the Islamabad-brokered memorandum, the framework has given diplomacy an opportunity to advance negotiations toward ending the war in the region.
Current points of friction include Washington and the Iranian government’s differing interpretations and interpretations of the memorandum’s contents. They accused each other of violating the agreement.
Despite the attacks between Iran and the US, diplomacy is likely to continue, Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera.
He added that both countries are currently trying to determine where the other party’s “red lines should not be crossed.”
Musgrave said Iran’s goals appear to have increased over the course of the conflict, while U.S. goals have shrunk “astoundingly.” “The United States is no longer talking about regime change, but people in Tehran are starting to talk about something like hegemony in the Gulf,” he noted.
Mr Musgrave warned that it would mean a return to diplomacy would be very difficult.
