It was a Capitol Hill mystery. For almost a month, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell has not been seen or heard from in public.
Little was known about the 84-year-old’s condition other than that he was hospitalized on June 14. Conspiracy theories began to circulate online. Laura Loomer, one of the prominent right-wing influencers, even spread rumors that Republican leaders are brain dead.
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But after weeks of silence, McConnell acknowledged Sunday that he is on the mend after suffering a fall.
Still, the Kentucky Republican has appeared increasingly frail in the Capitol, freezing in front of cameras and walking unsteadily when not in a wheelchair.
Members of Congress are usually on the side of the elderly. The average age of a U.S. senator is approximately 65 years old.
Mr. McConnell’s poor health and the sudden death of his Senate colleague Lindsey Graham, 71, on Sunday have reignited questions about what will happen if Mr. McConnell does not serve out the remainder of his term.
That answer is under intense scrutiny as Republicans seek to maintain their majority in the Senate.
Who is Mitch McConnell?
McConnell, a seven-term senator from Kentucky, is the longest-serving leader in Senate history.
He first entered the Senate in 1985 and became leader of the Republican Congress in 2007, serving in that position until 2025.
He will continue to serve in the Senate, but will not seek reelection in the November midterm elections. His term ends in January.
What’s wrong with McConnell’s health?
On Sunday, McConnell said in a statement: On June 14, he fell and “temporarily lost consciousness” and was taken to the hospital. The senator also said he suffered from mild pneumonia.
But McConnell has struggled with health and mobility challenges for years. As a toddler, he survived a severe bout of polio that left him partially paralyzed in one leg.
McConnell has indicated that although his condition is improving, he does not intend to return to the Senate just yet.
“There are signs of continued progress and he was able to move from hospital treatment to a rehabilitation center where he will continue to regain his strength,” he wrote.
His statement was accompanied by a photo of the senator smiling in a hospital bed and what appeared to be a copy of Sunday’s Washington Post.
Has McConnell been hospitalized before?
This is not the first time that a senior senator’s health has been a cause for concern in recent years.
As recently as February, the veteran lawmaker was hospitalized with flu-like symptoms.
Also in 2019, McConnell tripped and fell at his home in Louisville, breaking his shoulder.
He also collapsed three times in 2023, sustaining concussions and broken ribs, and ended up in a wheelchair, the Louisville Courier-Journal reported.
It was during this period that there were several occasions when Mr. McConnell appeared to inexplicably freeze during public speeches, raising questions about his fitness to serve.
Why is his presence in the Senate important?
Republicans control the Senate, but the difference is only a few seats.
McConnell’s absence will reduce the number of Republicans voting in the 100-member Senate from 53 to 52.
If every Republican vote counts, that could affect the outcome of the divisive bill.
In McConnell’s absence, Democrats have already passed a resolution opposing President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, with four Republicans voting in favor of it on a bipartisan basis.
Mr. McConnell also serves on the crucial Senate Appropriations Committee, which helps make discretionary spending decisions for the government.
The U.S. government’s funding deadline is approaching Sept. 30, and McConnell’s continued hospitalization could disrupt efforts to pass a funding package.
What does McConnell’s absence reveal about Republican unity?
Stephen Vos, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, said the Republican majority in the Senate had weakened over time.
Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, along with wild cards like Rand Paul, have shown in the past a willingness to work with Democrats during key votes.
But that small number of “swing” Republicans increased during the midterm primaries.
Many lame-duck Republicans lost re-election to party rivals backed by President Trump. As a result, they are sometimes willing to rebel against party leaders.
“Depending on what policy battles unfold in the coming months, Mr. McConnell’s absence could be an inconvenience,” Vos said.
What was the reaction to McConnell’s absence?
News of McConnell’s hospitalization set off alarm bells in the US political world.
Republican leaders sought to reassure the public that the senator would return to work soon. But as the weeks went by, questions about McConnell’s condition grew.
Finally, on July 8, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear sent a letter to Mr. McConnell’s office requesting an update on the senator’s health.
Beshear has since called McConnell’s written statement Sunday “a step in the right direction,” but McConnell has continued to call for more transparency and suggested Republican senators release a video update instead.
Some critics have questioned McConnell’s fitness for office and called for him to resign altogether. Among them is Democrat Charles Booker, who is running to succeed McConnell in the midterm elections.
Tres Watson, a Republican strategist and host of the Kentucky Politics Weekly podcast, said there is no reason to doubt McConnell’s ability to do his job despite the recent health scare.
“I have been around the senator several times over the last year. His brain is functioning normally, he is resourceful and intelligent, but his body is declining. He has made the logical decision not to run again,” Watson said.
What happens if Mitch McConnell is unable to serve out the remainder of his term?
If Mr. McConnell vacates his Senate seat before his term ends, Democrats may be tempted to think that Mr. Beshear, Kentucky’s Democratic governor, might appoint someone from his own party.
However, due to recent changes in state law, this is no longer the case. Kentucky is currently one of four states in the United States where the governor does not have the power to fill Senate vacancies.
In 2024, the Republican-controlled Kentucky General Assembly passed a law requiring Senate vacancies to be filled by special elections called by the governor.
But experts say there are many challenges to holding a special election this year, one of which is timing.
The new law requires the governor to give 63 days’ notice of a special election. Senate candidates must register their candidacy at least 56 days before voting.
Even if Mr. McConnell’s Senate seat were to become vacant immediately, a special election would not be held until September at the earliest.
But experts say it doesn’t make sense to hold a special election all at once, with just three and a half months until November’s midterm elections. McConnell’s Senate seat is at stake in this election.
“The process takes time to prepare, so even if this process starts right away, we won’t see senators sworn in right away,” said Vos, a political science professor. “The chances of getting a replacement in advance are pretty slim.”
Republican strategist Watson agrees. He questions the efficiency of rushing to hold a special election so close to midterm elections on Nov. 3.
“Election Day is getting very close,” Watson said. “We’re not going to burden the Commonwealth with the cost of holding another special election so that someone can essentially be a U.S. senator for a month.”
Will there be challenges in filling McConnell’s seat?
Yes, litigation could be a significant challenge. Kentucky’s 2024 law is largely untested and almost certain to face legal challenges.
“I think there’s a good chance this issue will end up in court,” said Joshua Douglas, a professor of election law at the University of Kentucky.
Douglas believes there may be a conflict between the new law and parts of the Kentucky Constitution.
“The 17th Amendment allows the legislature to authorize the governor to appoint a temporary replacement, Section 152 of the Kentucky Constitution says the governor will appoint a replacement, and the Kentucky General Assembly must now hold a special election after the new law takes effect,” Douglas said.
Vos explained that legal challenges could delay a special election to fill McConnell’s seat.
“This is the kind of thing that lawyers know how to tie together in litigation,” Voss said. “There will be people involved who know how to move the process slowly.”
Why can’t the governor choose Mr. McConnell’s successor?
The 2024 law stripped governors of their authority to select temporary replacements for U.S. Senate seats.
Governor Beshear vetoed the bill, but the Republican-controlled state Legislature overrode his opposition.
The move is part of a broader strategy by Republican lawmakers to shift power away from the governor since Beshear was elected in 2019.
“We’ve seen an overall attempt by the Kentucky General Assembly to shift power from the executive branch to the legislative branch,” Vos said.
But the 2024 law was not the first attempt by the Legislature to limit the governor’s ability to fill Senate vacancies.
Republican lawmakers originally passed a bill in 2021 that would require the governor to choose a temporary replacement from a list of three provided by the former senator’s party executive committee. A special election will be held after the vacancy is filled.
Watson said Republicans passed the new version out of concern about legal challenges to the 2021 law.
The state’s Republicans argue that the 2024 update is more democratic and consistent with the process for filling other vacancies.
Beshear is Kentucky’s only Democrat to serve as a statewide representative. The state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992.
Who will run to replace McConnell in the midterm elections?
In the general election, Democrat Charles Booker, a former state representative, is running against Republican Representative Andy Barr to replace McConnell.
