When factories were roaring, Michigan, home to three major automakers, was the manufacturing capital of the United States.
So when globalization rose in the 1980s and 1990s, and outsourcing eliminated millions of manufacturing jobs and shuttered many American factories, Midwestern states became emblematic of what happens to communities in the face of deindustrialization.
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President Donald Trump spoke at a General Motors (GM) plant in Michigan on Monday, highlighting perceived achievements and promoting economic policies that emphasize the state’s political and economic importance.
“We’re doing incredibly well as a country,” Trump told supporters holding signs that read “American Jobs.”
“We’re building more car plants and factories than in the history of this country.”
Trump won Michigan in 2016, but lost the state four years later when he lost the presidency, only to regain the state and the White House in the 2024 election.
But despite trade policies aimed at restoring industrialization and providing factory jobs that specifically benefit Michigan, the president’s approval ratings in the state have plummeted.
Less than two years after Trump won the state with 49.73 percent of the vote, his approval rating was 33 percent, according to an EPIC-MRA poll last month.
David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University north of Detroit, said President Trump’s popularity in Michigan has declined “largely because of the economy.”
“Certainly some people are concerned about the foreign policy side and a few other issues, but I think presidential approvals are generally tied to economic indicators, and Trump is no exception.”
The White House is touting billions of dollars in investments in Michigan’s economy, including expansion by the “big three” automakers: GM, Ford and Stellantis.
President Trump has called the United States the “hottest country” in the world and said his administration is attracting trillions of dollars in capital to the United States.
But Durio said that approach doesn’t resonate with voters.
“People don’t associate announcements with fancy numbers with what’s happening in their daily lives the way they do with gas prices or food prices,” he told Al Jazeera.
Michigan is not only an industrial center, but also a major gateway for trade between the United States and Canada. So President Trump’s trade war with Canada has created uncertainty in Michigan and spoiled the celebratory mood Monday marking the opening of a new bridge between the two countries over the Detroit River.
The United Auto Workers (UAW), one of North America’s largest labor unions, which has traditionally aligned with Democrats and particularly criticized President Trump, welcomed the president’s auto tariffs last year.
Durio said that while efforts to revive manufacturing may appeal to Michiganders on the surface, voters are more focused on immediate needs.
“People are seeing rising gas prices, there’s tariffs, there’s uncertainty around the conflict with Iran, and I think it’s a tough environment for the president right now,” he said.
So far, President Trump’s policies have not led to a significant short-term boost to jobs. According to federal employment statistics, manufacturing employment fell by 2,000 in May and rose by 3,000 in June.
Michigan is a battleground state that will determine the 2028 presidential election, so President Trump’s low approval rating is a problem.
More directly, Michigan has an open Senate seat in November’s election, one of four races classified as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report.
This seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters. If Republicans were able to overturn it, it would block Democrats’ path to a Senate majority.
In the Senate race, Republican candidate Mike Rogers will be locked in a fierce battle for the party’s nomination, with either the winner of the Democratic primary, Representative Haley Stevens, or public health activist Abdul El-Sayed.
For now, Trump is trying to make his policies and party’s case in states critical to his political rise. The president also marked his 100th day in office last year with a rally in Michigan.
“Mr. Trump was here for a reason,” Dulio said. “He’s had success in Michigan in the past, and there’s no question that it was central to his two election victories. It’s also kind of ground zero for his trade and manufacturing message.”
