The United States on Friday suspended attacks on Iran after nearly two weeks of shelling, including in the Strait of Hormuz, since the end of an Islamabad-brokered ceasefire.
The U.S. government has not targeted Iran and has prevented Iranian retaliatory attacks against U.S. military assets and infrastructure in regional countries.
Although US President Donald Trump denies it, local media reports say the US government may be running low on anti-aircraft missiles, while pressure is mounting on both sides to give diplomacy another chance amid heightened stakes.
Here’s what we know about why the US stopped its attacks and what’s happening on diplomatic channels.
How is it now?
Despite the sudden lull in exchanges of attacks, the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that has been one of the war’s biggest flashpoints, remains closed.
Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported that six ships attempted to transit through an “illegal and unsafe” shipping route in the southern Strait of Hormuz early Monday after shutting down their navigation and positioning systems.
IRIB news agency said one ship had an unknown accident and the remaining ships had returned to the Gulf under “firm Iranian control.” The paper quoted an official who accused the US military of “provoking” the ship to sail through an unauthorized route.
However, Iranian retaliatory attacks against U.S. military assets and infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan have ceased. “Our strategy was retaliatory in nature. We have also stopped retaliatory operations,” Iranian military spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said.
Global oil prices fell by about 4% after the United States and Iran halted missile exchanges, signaling a possible shift toward diplomacy.
The U.S. military said Saturday that its naval blockade of Iranian ports, including the Strait of Hormuz, “remains in full force and effect,” but did not say why the U.S. had called off attacks on Iran after 13 nights of escalating attacks.
What tensions remain?
The biggest flashpoint, and the issue that directly led to the resumption of attacks two weeks ago, is the Strait of Hormuz. Immediately after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Tehran on February 28, Iran effectively cut off the strait to international shipping.
Iran is in talks with Oman, whose territorial waters also extend into the Strait, over a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under a common management protocol. However, it is unclear whether that will be acceptable to President Trump and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran on June 17, the strait will be open to free shipping for at least 60 days while peace negotiations are ongoing. However, the two sides do not agree on who has ultimate control over the route and which route ships should take. As a result, Iran attacked ships taking the “wrong” route, and ultimately President Trump renewed attacks on Iran.
Tensions over shipping in Hormuz are now spilling over into other important waterways.
Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea opposite Saudi Arabia has also slowed following Houthi attacks on ships along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the group’s announcement of a naval blockade of the largest GCC member state, according to shipping data from analytical platform Kpler.
Meanwhile, Ukraine attacked an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, further escalating tensions and killing at least one Iranian sailor. Tehran summoned Ukrainian diplomats and accused Kiev of “hostile and criminal” acts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of supporting Iran’s military operations against the United States and said long-range missiles targeted ships carrying munitions linked to Iran.
Another major flashpoint is Lebanon, where Israel has occupied about a fifth of the country since early March. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has insisted that peace between Iran and the United States is possible only if Israel stops attacking Lebanon, which it says targets the bases of the Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah.
“Iran has made the preservation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity and the absolute and unconditional cessation of the Zionist regime’s aggression the key conditions of any agreement to end the war imposed against the aggressive United States,” he said in a post on X.
Why did the US call off the attack now?
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Walz told broadcaster NBC News that the suspension of the strike would aid talks between the two countries. “As we’ve seen all along, what the president is doing now is opening up space for some discussions,” he said. “Negotiations are ongoing.”
Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi told Al Jazeera that the global economy was under severe pressure when the United States and Iran returned to hostilities two weeks ago and oil prices rose more than 20% to over $100 a barrel.
He speculated that this was the main reason the US called off the strike.
“There was pressure on the Trump administration from all sides, including domestic and international partners, to find a solution,” Habibi told Al Jazeera. “None of the recent U.S. attacks have been able to generate enough pressure to change Iranian policy or force Iran to accept its demands.”
Another problem, he said, was that the cost of Iranian attacks on Gulf states was “so high that the United States risked alienating allies through economic damage if they continued.”
Similarly, the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions have placed Tehran’s economy under severe pressure, Habibi said, adding that the country was “witnessing long lines for gasoline and diesel fuel, sometimes reaching one kilometer in length.” Added to this is the damage caused to infrastructure such as bridges and railways in Iran due to US attacks.
Therefore, “there is an incentive on both sides because the costs are so high that one side cannot force the other to give up,” he said.
Ali Baez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera: “Two weeks of fighting has reminded both Washington and Iran that escalation without resolving the conflict increases costs. The hope is that Iran and Oman will reach a formula for reopening the strait that will be acceptable to all other stakeholders.”
“The gap can only be bridged by revisiting the memorandum and resolving the ambiguities,” he added.
Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan are working with other regional mediators on a new ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and most recently submitted a proposal for a 10-day cessation of fighting.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai told Austrian broadcaster ORF on Sunday that intermediaries were exchanging messages between Iran and the United States, adding that despite Iran’s previous diplomatic efforts, it had been “betrayed.”
Is the US weapons stockpile running low?
US media reported that Washington is running low on stockpiles of Patriot anti-missile interceptors and other air defense weapons stationed in the Middle East.
News agency Axios reported that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kaine warned Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Trump that a shortage of air defense interceptors could hamper the ability to protect U.S. forces and allies in the region.
The U.S. government confirmed last week that at least 18 service members were killed and 482 injured in the war against Iran, but the Pentagon later lowered the death toll to 14.
President Trump dismissed concerns about ammunition stockpiles, telling the Wall Street Journal: “We have far more ammunition than anyone else in the world, far more than we need.”
After the U.S. called off its attack on Iran on Friday, President Trump told reporters: “We have the option of a military withdrawal. We can just keep going the way we are, and we can give them more powerful doses, and that will crush them with everything they have. Or there’s a smarter strategy: You make a deal. And they want to make a deal.”
Despite his protests, experts believe the dwindling arms situation is another big reason to halt attacks on Iran now.
