TEHRAN, Iran – Iran continues to strike back against the United States and other rival interests in the region, as new attacks raise fears of an escalating conflict.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on Wednesday released footage of a nighttime attack on a US military base in Jordan in response to “aggressive actions”.
Jordan said all five ballistic missiles were intercepted, but US President Donald Trump threatened that his military would violently attack Iran in response to the attack in Jordan.
“They’re going to be hit,” he told Fox News, adding that the administration was considering additional actions against Iranian-allied groups in the region, including Iraq.
Iranian authorities said on Wednesday afternoon that a missile landed in a border area in West Azerbaijan province, but no one was killed. Shortly after, Israel announced that drones launched by the Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah targeted Israeli military vehicles in occupied southern Lebanon.
Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthis launched a major attack on Saudi oil facilities and Saudi-linked ships in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait this week, while the United States and Saudi Arabia launched a joint attack on Iranian-allied forces in Iraq on Wednesday, killing at least 20 fighters.
Late Tuesday, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs and International Affairs Kazem Ghalibabadi outlined Iran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz, saying that Oman’s proposal for a 50-50 split was unacceptable.
In an interview on state television, he added that while Tehran would not approve the U.S.-backed southern route or the proposed third route closer to the Gulf, it would also reject demining operations by other countries in the strategic waterway.
A new conflict seems to be underway
Regional mediation bodies continue to seek a diplomatic solution to the US-Israel war against Iran, which began on February 28th. But the recent escalation of attacks suggests there is little appetite for direct negotiations.
Iranian authorities claim that the United States is committing an act of aggression by blockading Iran’s southern ports.
They also accuse the US of reneging on several commitments outlined in a memorandum of understanding signed in June.
These include the introduction of a southern route near Oman, the fact that frozen Iranian funds were not released, and an agreement with the Lebanese government that allows Israel to continue occupying Lebanese territory until Hezbollah is disarmed.
After the loss of understanding and the resumption of attacks, Iranian leaders became even more convinced that they “must not budge” on important issues, especially Hormuz, Elie Geranmae said.
A senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told Al Jazeera that Iran is mulling over whether a long-term deal with Trump is possible, adding that the US president’s sudden changes in direction, such as tying the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia to normalization with Israel, have made the situation more complicated.
“Iran’s rejection of Oman’s offer should be seen in the broader context of a growing belief within Iran’s political and military establishment that another major U.S. bombing campaign is approaching and inevitable,” he told Al Jazeera.
Geranmae noted that Iranian policymakers are also hardening their positions, including regarding Iran’s nuclear program and possible inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The increase in military activity in the region is the latest development in the escalation of the conflict.
“The Iranian government has basically decided to give an early warning shot of how chaotic things will get if the United States returns to its bombing campaign across Iran, including the capital Tehran. Basically, the next cycle is going to be much more destructive, not just for Iran but for the entire region.”
Hormuz and the Caspian Sea
Iranian officials have stressed that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to all the free and unhindered access that existed before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February.
During the war, Tehran raised national security concerns as a reason for not allowing uninterrupted traffic through the Southern Corridor, saying the route beyond effective Iranian surveillance could be used to support further U.S. or Israeli military operations.
Foreign Ministry official Ghalibabadi told state television that his country’s proposal includes all incoming traffic using routes within Iranian territorial waters, with some outgoing routes also controlled by Iran. Oman appears to be able to manage the rest as part of the initiative, although the exact division and coordinates have not been disclosed.
The official said exercising varying degrees of control over both directions is also a defense requirement and not an assertion of Oman’s sovereignty.
“If the route we have proposed is not acceptable, no other method is acceptable,” Garibabadi said. “The Channel remains closed and we are ready to resume war.”
He cited the 34-nation British and French effort to carry out demining operations in the Straits, and said foreign warships, equipment and vessels attempting this would be treated as “legitimate targets”.
For the past week, Iran has been considering how to respond to its first war-related incident, in which Ukrainian forces attacked a ship in the Caspian Sea, killing one person and injuring several others.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the attack was on a military cargo ship believed to have departed from Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But Iran claimed it was a merchant ship carrying iron, and local media identified the victim as Nima Moradi, a 23-year-old man on his first maritime trade voyage through the supposedly safe maritime corridor.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post on Tuesday that he had been “assured” by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiha that the attack was “unintentional.” But the top diplomat told European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Karas that Kiev must accept responsibility and face the consequences.
ECFR’s Geranmae said deliberations were taking place in Tehran about whether the attack by Ukraine was a calculated move to open a new front in the active conflict between Europe and Iran.
“I have no doubt that they will respond, but I think Iran is now considering how to shape that response in a way that does not trigger Britain or Germany to participate in future Israeli-American military operations,” she said.
“I think there is an aversion in Tehran to an end to the war between Ukraine and Iran, because I think that would make it even more difficult to resolve the situation.”
