Latest opinion polls show Mr. Lula leading Mr. Bolsonaro, but the gap has narrowed ahead of Brazil’s high-stakes presidential election.
Published August 15, 2026
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains his lead over right-wing Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro heading into October’s general election, according to a new opinion poll.
According to a Quest poll released on Friday, a mock run-off poll gave Mr. Lula 43% of the vote to Mr. Bolsonaro 40%, effectively making them a statistical tie given the poll’s 2-point margin of error.
Recommended stories
list of 3 itemsend of list
The results mark a narrowing of the gap from the last Qwest poll, conducted on August 5, in which Lula had a five-point lead, 44% to 39%.
In the first round scenario, Lula comfortably leads with 38%, followed by Bolsonaro with 31%. The other three candidates were far behind, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado with 4% each and Romeu Zema with 2%.
Under Brazilian election rules, if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes in the first round, the top two candidates advance to a runoff.
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, emerged as a standard-bearer for Brazil’s right after his father was barred from running for office.
Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court found that Bolsonaro abused his power while in office, ruling that the elderly Bolsonaro is ineligible to hold office. He was later separately convicted of conspiracy to overturn Lula’s defeat in the 2022 election.
The poll was commissioned by Brazilian media group Globo and conducted by Quest among 2,004 people between August 10 and 13.
Lula announced his bid for re-election at the Labor Party convention in Sao Paulo on August 2, presenting himself as a defender of Brazil’s “sovereignty” as pressure from the administration of US President Donald Trump looms large on his campaign.
He called for increased defense spending and pledged to protect Brazil’s rare earth and other vital mineral reserves from foreign domination. “We want to be prepared so no one invades this country,” he said.
He warned that China, the United States and France cannot access Brazil’s mineral resources without respecting Brazil’s sovereignty. “In Brazil, we don’t accept people who stick their noses where they don’t belong,” he also said at the convention.
Mr. Trump has maintained close ties with Mr. Bolsonaro. In June, Lula warned Trump not to interfere in the presidential election.
“Don’t interfere in Brazil’s elections, because Brazilian elections are Brazil’s problem, just like American elections are their business and not mine,” Lula said.
With two months until the vote, the race is close, and results so far indicate a competitive presidential race, even as Lula continues to maintain a narrow structural advantage heading into the final stages of the campaign.
