A memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran aimed at ending fighting is set to expire on Monday, but there is little sign that either side intends to extend the agreement, and for weeks both countries have accused the other of violating it.
“We have not yet decided on resuming negotiations with the United States,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a Telegram post on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries continued exchanging messages with Iran. Araghchi added that Iran is working on another agreement with Oman to fast-track a new route to the Strait of Hormuz, but stressed that this is only possible if a political solution is reached.
On the American side, President Donald Trump told supporters in New York on Friday that the United States would soon claim its vital waterway.
Here’s what you need to know when your MoU expires.
What is a Memorandum of Understanding?
The agreement was signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17 after an unusual high-level meeting hosted by Pakistan. It was intended to end more than three months of war that had killed thousands of people and disrupted commercial activity in the Gulf region, especially oil and gas exports on which the rest of the world depends.
Leaving complex issues such as Iran’s nuclear program to be dealt with later, the agreement called for an end to the conflict in Lebanon as well as finding an immediate diplomatic solution to halt the war with Tehran.
The agreement states that Iran and the United States “declare an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations” and that the “final agreement” “confirms the permanent cessation of war on all fronts.” According to the agreement, the “definitive agreement” can be reached within up to 60 days, subject to approval by the United Nations Security Council, and can be extended by mutual agreement.
The United States was scheduled to lift the naval blockade within 30 days, withdraw troops from near Iran after a “final agreement” was reached, and begin a plan worth at least $300 billion to rebuild and develop Iran. The U.S. government also agreed to end sanctions on Iran, exempt Iranian oil exports, and give Tehran access to frozen funds. Iran was to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines and allow ships to pass through it “free of charge” for 60 days.
Tehran also reaffirmed that it does not seek nuclear weapons and will negotiate on issues such as enrichment, the details of which will be set out in a “final agreement” backed by the United Nations.
Was the memorandum successful?
nevertheless The terms of the deal between the United States and Iran are slightly different, and much of the debate since it was signed has centered on more fundamental issues, such as whether it is a ceasefire or a permanent agreement and what each side should do..
Whether the entire deal was still in effect quickly became debated, and by June 27, President Trump said Iranian attacks in the region were “stupid violations” of the agreement. Iran said the U.S. attack was “in violation of Article 1 of the Memorandum of Understanding.”
On July 7, President Trump said the deal was “done,” and the US continued attacks on Iran, including on what Tehran called civilian infrastructure, killing at least 50 people. Iranian officials said the United States had “violated and suspended” all its commitments and that the Iranian government had “suspended all of our own commitments as well.”
Since then, the US has not fully lifted sanctions on Iran, and President Trump has scoffed at the idea of paying Iran to rebuild, instead proposing that Iran pay reparations to the families of protesters it has killed “over the last 50 years” and “all the people it has killed and seriously injured in roadside bombs and in many conflicts.”
Nor has Hormuz reopened, with Iranian and U.S. officials continuing to insist their countries control the strait. Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced it had fired on a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship in the strait for “violating the U.S. blockade against Iran.”
Mostafa Koshchesum, a professor at Tehran University of Applied Sciences, told Al Jazeera: “The ceasefire has been suspended and is no longer valid as the US has not complied with the terms of the agreement and the memorandum of understanding.”
In particular, Tehran sees the United States as having failed to deliver on its promises to release Iranian assets, lift sanctions, lift the naval blockade and withdraw Israel from southern Lebanon, it added. “Now officially, on paper, it says the deadline has ended,” Košiğszum said.
What happens next?
The memorandum is set to expire on Monday, but what exactly that means depends on which side you ask.
Iran’s Alaghushi said on Friday that what was included in the Islamabad memorandum was “not a ceasefire, but an end to the war,” according to the Iranian Student News Agency (ISNA). He added that “there was no 60-day ceasefire that needed to be extended” as the US continued to attack in violation of the memorandum of understanding.
Recent appointments in Iran’s national security apparatus suggest a more assertive stance in future negotiations and less willingness to back down, especially when it comes to control of Hormuz. For example, earlier this month, Mohsen Rezaee, former head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, was named the new head of Iran’s highest security body, the Supreme National Security Council. Analysts told Al Jazeera that the move is aimed at bringing military and civilian operations more in sync.
Rezaei’s appointment, along with other recent leadership changes, “suggests that Iran believes it has the upper hand,” Koshchesim said. He said Iran was likely to come to the table with further demands, ranging from an end to the war in Gaza to lifting sanctions and a blockade of Yemen, and even the denuclearization of Israel.
Only a few cards left to play in the US
As for the United States, Trump and his administration have escalated their rhetoric regarding war in the Straits and economic warfare.
President Trump announced plans Friday to formally claim America’s waterways.
“Once we have defeated Iran, which has suffered a very bad defeat, we will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz as US territory,” he said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said Friday that the United States would apply “unprecedented” measures against Iran.
But Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Stimson Center, told Al Jazeera that there aren’t many steps left for Trump to pull if he wants to put further pressure on Tehran.
America’s inventory of interceptor missiles is depleted, strategic oil reserves are depleted, and major military equipment, including aircraft carriers, remains at sea months longer than planned. This means there are few military options left for the United States to try. As for economic pressure, Slavin said the Iranian government has shown it can inflict economic damage on its own by disrupting traffic through Hormuz.
“Iran is taking a hard line here and is clearly furious with the Trump administration for not implementing the memorandum signed in June,” Slavin said. “They’re running the international economy and making Donald Trump sweat.”
In any case, Slavin said Iran is likely to get reparations for the war and gain significant control of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict “will likely be resolved through an agreement that will have less impact on voting after the midterm elections,” she said.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf told reporters in Tehran on Saturday that the concessions Iran won in the memorandum were a “source of pride and victory.”
“I can say with complete confidence that we have won a real military and political victory in this war,” he said.
